DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[felixthecat]

Feels different this time…expect a bounce tomorrow but a selloff same day. That is the new feeling I’m getting. If it happens…we got more downside as energy, food, and housing damper market spirits. Sniffing the economy…sensing a sharp turnaround is afoot. Strikes and elevated oil may be the nail in the coffin for recession(if it has not already begun).

 

[TommyIV]

Feels different this time…expect a bounce tomorrow but a selloff same day. That is the new feeling I’m getting. If it happens…we got more downside as energy, food, and housing damper market spirits. Sniffing the economy…sensing a sharp turnaround is afoot. Strikes and elevated oil may be the nail in the coffin for recession(if it has not already begun). 濫

I am unconvinced a recession is that close. I think it is very possible we are leading up to one, but for now, the consumer is holding up the economy. Some of this thought comes from the consumer confidence and retail sales economic reports that are holding up while higher rates of inflation persist, but it also comes from witnessing the demand by consumers here in my local economy. It is hard to expect a recession ahead when new businesses are still opening and established busninesses are expanding despite higher borrowing costs. Demand from consumers allows some businesses to thrive.

I do agree that the market could get ugly tomorrow or just Thursday. I'm currently fully invested in stocks but I would be quick to sell if the prices picked up quickly. I suspect other investors will have the same reactions.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are charts before cutoff... The I fund is looking good! :smile: Best wishes!

 

[dannyboy]

I've been on that cycle before. It looks good for a while then the backlash is twice the gains made, It is all a roll the dice ?

Here are charts before cutoff... The I fund is looking good! :smile: Best wishes!

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[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes Dannyboy... that does appear to be the case. In May I realized that MACD is working pretty well as a fairly good momentum indicator. I am trying to follow that since May.
Wishing you the best! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff. S fund has dropped well below the longer term Oct 2022 to May 2023 trendline. The I fund has dropped below the longer term trendline in play from Dec 2022 to March 2023. The C fund has yet to reach the longer term Oct 2022 to March 2023 trendline, so looks like it has a ways to go. Will see.

NOTE: This year MACD has been very good at signaling when a big drop is coming. Typically within a couple days of crossing below its signal line. I have been circling those cross downs in Red.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon IFT cutoff.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before cutoff. Considering a small entry but just not sure. humm...ok decided to stay out. MACD has not crossed positive although it is moving that way. This is a nice bounce off the lower bolling band, but seeing black candles. Also, on C fund chart see the 20 MA (mid point on BB) crossing below the 48 EMA (so its like a 20 below 50 cross down). Regardless, Monday and Wednesday (1st and 3rd days of new month) will be market movers with ISM numbers on services and manufacturing coming out... plus have the possible shut down to contend with. uggg.

Best wishes to all.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff. Best wishes to All! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff. Best wishes to all! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

charts before noon cutoff. Best wishes to you all! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This year MACD continues to look like the best momentum indicator. Notice how the crossovers tend to find uptrends and downtrends very well and it looks like MACD cresting areas are best for exits (before actual crossover). No telling how long this will continue but it has been fairly consistent this year.

 

[JTH]

Thanks, it's interesting to me for SPX, 4 of the last 6 MACD peaks were in the mid 60s (going back to Nov-22), also the current MACD low is weaker than the March-23 low, but this Mar low was a deeper percentage pullback. The most recent MACD peak in Sep was just above 10, giving us a nice clue the Sep high had no momentum support. Damm me I never see these things until after the move is over

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thanks for commenting JTH, I will need to look at this more...later today. For now, here are charts before cutoff. Best wishes! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thanks, it's interesting to me for SPX, 4 of the last 6 MACD peaks were in the mid 60s (going back to Nov-22), also the current MACD low is weaker than the March-23 low, but this Mar low was a deeper percentage pullback. The most recent MACD peak in Sep was just above 10, giving us a nice clue the Sep high had no momentum support. Damm me I never see these things until after the move is over

I added in C fund chart going back to last year. Also notice that 13 EMA dropped below 48 EMA around Sept 18_19, which is a long-term indicator that indicates higher risk caution or time to exit depending on strategy. Also, MACD started to meander sideways looking for direction during first half of Sept, and the 48 EMA never got high enough to cross above the 20MA (midpoint, dotted line of Bollinger). I wanted to enter a few times when stochastic started to go up but decided to stick with waiting for a MACD cross-up. ugghhh..never happened and still waiting. Missed very short MACD crossups in June, July, Aug...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So I thought the war in Israel would have market down but it is up. 3 white soldiers, and all funds except F have crossed above MACD on daily chart. Weekly is still down... but parameters have been met so I must jump in. Crossing fingers. I have jumped in: 30G, 45C, 25S.

Here are daily charts before close. Best wishes to all! :smile:
)

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before cutoff. Best wishes to you all! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before cutoff. Best wishes :smile: Decision made to put everything into C fund...100%.

 

[Epic]

I'm luvin all the Green circles, and that should make me feel more comfortable about maybe jumpin in, but as I look at the overall "goings on" in the world right now, I'm still apprehensive (terrified) as Hell. Everything is just so upside down, backwards, and just "wrong", that things need to Right themselves for me to feel any sort of confidence at all. Still too sketchy, but I'll keep my fingers crossed as I hope for better days ahead.