DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

That's the tricky part. When the bad news is out and everything looks bleak, the market has it priced in. Fear is high, investors are bearish and have sold already, and there's no one left to sell (theoretically.)

When everything looks great, earnings were good, the action is good, inflation is under controls, etc., a la July 31, it's already in the market and everyone's already in stocks. Only one way to go from there.

Anyway, that the theory behind the contrarian approach. Of course it's not that easy.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before cutoff. Best wishes to everyone!

S Fund MACD is cresting to move downward. C Fund's MACD has not crested. If the downtrend continues on Monday, I will likely need to exit. As I near retirement, I am seriously considering to stay in G fund until I retire. Thereafter, I will likely move funds out of TSP. I hope to grow my funds in a better and fairer trading environment. Looking into Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers.

 

[TommyIV]

Charts before cutoff. Best wishes to everyone! C Fund's MACD has not crested. If the downtrend continues on Monday, I will likely need to exit.

Would you also be quick to exit if stock prices bounced back next week? What is your strategy when the profits come?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thinking to exit today or at least reduce my exposure. I think we got lucky today that war in Middle East did not yet ramp up this past weekend. Typically, the exit strategy is to watch MACD and watch for it to begin cresting...forming cap, which indicates momentum is dropping. I also look at MACD histogram.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff. Best wishes!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Decision to stay in. Fear of drop due to war...but C fund still looks good although hitting some overhead resistance. s and I look good too.

 

[ravensfan]

Decision to stay in. Fear of drop due to war...but C fund still looks good although hitting some overhead resistance. s and I look good too.

Sounds like a ball of confusion to me. :nuts:

 

[Whipsaw]

Watching closely for re-entry... talking heads sound bearish re. conflict, recession, oil prices... :worried:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hey Raven.... Ck this one Out! Are we having fun yet? Market feels like a Rollercoaster! :nuts:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Watching closely for re-entry... talking heads sound bearish re. conflict, recession, oil prices... :worried:

All reasons above are exactly the reason to jump in.
You need a bit of "Climbing the Wall of Worry" to catch a good uptrend.
When all the talking heads are on board, thats the time to start planning ones exit strategy.
FYI, Oil prices (rapidly falling 10-15% past 3 weeks) are why I'm staying in the C Fund...for now.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are chartsbefore noon cutoff. Best wishes! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

All reasons above are exactly the reason to jump in.
You need a bit of "Climbing the Wall of Worry" to catch a good uptrend.
When all the talking heads are on board, thats the time to start planning ones exit strategy.
FYI, Oil prices (rapidly falling 10-15% past 3 weeks) are why I'm staying in the C Fund...for now.

Sounds like your saying jump in when there is blood in the streets. Only thing is I've been good at catching falling knives. Eee...:blink: But definitely understand what your saying. My issue is that it's just so very hard to risk so much dinero when close to retirement. The G fund is no risk and has given out 3.19% YTD...not bad. Wish I had stayed in G fund...

You mentioned staying in C fund due to falling oil prices. Does falling oil affect anything specific within the S&P 500 index?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Sounds like your saying jump in when there is blood in the streets. Only thing is I've been good at catching falling knives. Eee...:blink: But definitely understand what your saying. My issue is that it's just so very hard to risk so much dinero when close to retirement. The G fund is no risk and has given out 3.19% YTD...not bad. Wish I had stayed in G fund...

You mentioned staying in C fund due to falling oil prices. Does falling oil affect anything specific within the S&P 500 index?

Yes you're right about the G fund being so enticing, now that its near an annualized rate near 4%. The one benefit of the Fed hiking, lol.
If rates level off and only fall a bit in the coming years, having an annual rate between 3-4% is awesome for ones retirement...since the old withdrawal formula is 4%, its like replenishing most of ones TSP withdrawals...making it last several lifetimes...or allowing one to take out 5-6% annually.
There's a silver lining behind each cloud. :smile:

 

[WorkFE]

Yes you're right about the G fund being so enticing, now that its near an annualized rate near 4%.

It does allow you to be much more selective with your risk. So much easier when the opposing team is spotting you 4 points.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts before noon cutoff. Best wishes! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes you're right about the G fund being so enticing, now that its near an annualized rate near 4%. The one benefit of the Fed hiking, lol.
If rates level off and only fall a bit in the coming years, having an annual rate between 3-4% is awesome for ones retirement...since the old withdrawal formula is 4%, its like replenishing most of ones TSP withdrawals...making it last several lifetimes...or allowing one to take out 5-6% annually.
There's a silver lining behind each cloud. :smile:

Thank you for comments FireWeatherMet and WorkFE. Itt puts everything in better clearer perspective! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I am likely exiting with a loss today. I think the geopolitical issues and yields are having major impact. G fund safety looking better! I've had terrible timing but have followed MACD strategy. MACD sharply dropped and so indexes formed sharp crest. Notice the 10-year Treasuries up a lot today and at 4.94%... Getting very close to 5%. That might be something to cause market turmoil. I guess we will see. Price has hit upper Bollinger so maybe it backs off in next day, but MACD has just crossed positive so looks like it might just be starting to go even higher. Will see.... :dunno:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Still considering exit...hard to accept loss.ugh.
Here are charts before cutoff.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Exiting to G. C fund has formed crest in MACD. So sad to lose money..

 

[WorkFE]

I am likely exiting with a loss today.

Something I loathe doing. In fact haven't done in some ten+ years because it annoyed me so much. Of course we had some hardnose Bull artist in here back then.