DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

Gotta love the way the chart turns up just before noon, and then down it goes! :suspicious:

That's just to keep us suckers thinking there's hope.

 

[Boghie]

Man, this thing just caught me out...

For the most part the decline was slow and measured. Even the biggish dumps were quickly followed by nice recoveries. But, the highs were lower and the lows were lower. Kinda a slow roll down the hill till the recent dumping.

And, that F-Fund is actually in a 30+ year dumper. As of April 30, it (AGG) was down by over 11% from it's top. That is, the drawdown has been over 11% - and, that is now in the rearview mirror. That 11% is, by far, the nastiest drawdown from the mid 80's onward. The biggest dump prior to now was 4% during the 2008 mess. Yowser.

 

[WorkFE]

Its definitely ugly out there.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

It is ugly. I didn't watch after posting at mid-day, then this evening see that S Fund lost more than 5%! I don't recall seeing that before..well at least not in last 8 years...humm... But maybe I missed it. So I started looking at weekly charts a bit more. Here are S and C fund.

S Fund found support right at the height before pandemic ...high of February 2020. Then MACD default dropped below its signal line back in March 2021 and has only gotten back above it for a very short time a couple times since then.



C fund has not reached down to its pre-pandemic levels. It would need to lose about another 500 points to do that.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So, will C fund follow S fund to reach down to its pre-pandemic levels? Hummm..... I do believe I've heard it said over the years that S fund leads the C fund.
With G7 agreeing to stop oil buying from Russia (eventually), I would think it could mean higher oil prices??? Higher inflation?

Also, understand as market drops it could be spurred on by Margin calls. Wednesday get CPI numbers.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts...It opened with small gain compared to yesterday, but now down again.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

10-minute charts

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts a bit early. No more posts until later in afternoon. Getting feeling to get in because Slow Sto starting to turn up, as well as RSI. But I will hold off to see if there is follow through tomorrow. CPI numbers were higher than expected( year-over-year) this morning but not as high on that metric given last month. Still I heard on FBN that numbers did not include latest increase in oil prices/inflation. Hummm...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

10-minute charts. Well that sure did take an ugly downturn at about 20 minutes before our noon cutoff! Then proceeded to pretty much tank rest of day.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Longer term daily charts. Yes, tough to see but just looking at overall market levels.

For C chart, I added in a few more (pink dashed) lines in attempt to spot areas of support as market moves down towards the pre-pandemic high. Look to be 3850, 3600, 3400.
Ifva bounce happens, I doubt it would go much above 4300-4400. Need to check Fibonacci retracement on this last leg down.
View attachment 54341


S fund has now gone below the Pre-pandemic high with today's action.

View attachment 54342

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are COB charts.

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[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts as of a few mins ago.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Longer term daily charts. Yes, tough to see but just looking at overall market levels.

For C chart, I added in a few more (pink dashed) lines in attempt to spot areas of support as market moves down towards the pre-pandemic high. Look to be 3850, 3600, 3400.
Ifva bounce happens, I doubt it would go much above 4300-4400. Need to check Fibonacci retracement on this last leg down.
View attachment 54341


S fund has now gone below the Pre-pandemic high with today's action.

View attachment 54342

Here they are again... Not sure why not displaying. Hope they display this time...made them smaller.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

10- minute charts.. Starting to drop as we approach noon.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

HA! And just like that it reverses..right after noon cut off! Coincidence???
Hummm... The market is just all over the place and we do not have ability to react quickly enough... 4-hour gap between decision (noon) and processing/price at COB, without ability to back out before COB.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I am contemplating the use if longer term strategy but not yet decided. It involves using only the 13-day and 48.5-day cross over that I read about years ago. It was deemed best longer term strategy when weighing different Moving Average cross overs. If I find it, I will repost.

You may have noticed my daily charts now display the 13 and 48 day MA lines.... Since May 10

Here us 1-year daily with those MAs.

 

[cmil1212]

HA! And just like that it reverses..right after noon cut off! Coincidence???
Hummm... The market is just all over the place and we do not have ability to react quickly enough... 4-hour gap between decision (noon) and processing/price at COB, without ability to back out before COB.


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Yep I’d even take the ability to cancel a move by 4pm. It’s nonsense that we have a noon deadline in tsp.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Listened to Jeffrey Grundlach on Charles Payne today. Very interesting. This caught my attention: He warned that "the disorderly trading that characterizes a bottom" has not yet been experienced, and said we’re waiting for that to happen. Here is the clip plus pretty much transcript of it. Predicting real recession in 2023.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/billionaire-bond-fund-manager-jeffrey-gundlach-warns-of-real-recession-in-2023

If you know anything about this guy please comment. Just not sure if he is a permabear.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts. Yes, contemplating entry...

 

[ravensfan]

Full STO looking promising on C, S and I...