DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
Then again... Almost want to just pull some out to ensure some coin for this month...eeeeee.....:nuts:
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I believe we have seen the gains for now...maybe another day of light returns with the S fund likely to eek out tomorrow but lower highs may be in the cards for S. I do sense this Taliban problem is only going to worsen as the 8/31 date appears.
10 yr bond will probably start to climb and not sure about inflation other than I think it will remain on the higher side. So, thinking about a move at the moment. Probably to lighten up and out on Thursday. Decisions.
 
felixthecat said:
I believe we have seen the gains for now...maybe another day of light returns with the S fund likely to eek out tomorrow but lower highs may be in the cards for S. I do sense this Taliban problem is only going to worsen as the 8/31 date appears.
10 yr bond will probably start to climb and not sure about inflation other than I think it will remain on the higher side. So, thinking about a move at the moment. Probably to lighten up and out on Thursday. Decisions.
Click to expand...

Hi Felix, Oh yes... Hoping for an increase in S fund before full exit...this week. But, S Fund is at some major resistance right now but hoping it doesn't drop tomorrow... It seems it could run up a bit more if looking at Slow Stochastic. But C fund seems ready for a little drop...touched upper BB, but I must say its uptrend, which has gone on for many months, is breathtaking! it seems to be lifted by air and just keeps steadily climbing. Will see what happens.

I agree the situation in Afghanistan is going to worsen. Just a matter of time...next Tuesday for sure, but more panic may set in later this week. We are now 7 days from the self-imposed deadline to exit. Very very sad and needless situation unfolding. I hope talks and reason will intervene but so many forces want vengeance for helping USA and no one in complete control and that is what could rock us all. Also, Fed speaks on Friday. I will be out, so likely exit is Wednesday or Thursday, especially if S fund rises...but who knows...will see how it goes.

Best wishes to you and Everyone* !!!!! :D
 
Well, just as I feared, looks like $3.5T package will begin further work for passage in house. Not sure how this eventually will affect market, but should think market might like the spending....???? What I dislike is the added debt plus political actions to ensure control. I am wondering at what point Moody's or S&P might decrease our bond rating based on size of our debt and ability to meet debt obligations, etc.... That seems like a swift blindside that could come without notice at some point with all that spending and debt....but we would need to be nearing situation where Congress is arguing on increasing the debt ceiling...that should be coming up soon...maybe in September?? Eh... Who knows.... :worried:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-democrats-break-internal-impasse-to-adopt-3-5t-budget-plan/ar-AANHGMC?ocid=msedgntp

https://www.theepochtimes.com/breaking-down-the-budget-plans-spending-on-the-environment_3944701.html

Interesting article on loan debt..from Moody's
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-six-tranches-issued-by-four-Navient-FFELP-securitizations--PR_452851
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
Partial exit. Going 85%, 15%S (from 60/40). Taking more profit. Best wishes to you all ! :smile:
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I don’t know about you, but the Lion King Rafiki quote, “It is Time” comes to mind. Exiting out since I don’t have any time to watch the markets due to yet another tropical system coming. Yikes!
 
felixthecat said:
I don’t know about you, but the Lion King Rafiki quote, “It is Time” comes to mind. Exiting out since I don’t have any time to watch the markets due to yet another tropical system coming. Yikes!
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Oh gosh...I hope you weather the storm well Felix. :worried: I will say some prayers for you and your family and folks in your area. Take care!
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Exited fully. From 15S,85G to 100%G. Best wishes to you all! :D:D:D
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Ditto…Better safe than sorry. Until market continues to drop a couple more days and breaks SPX 4370 multiple tested support, trending remains bullish. Early September triple witching option expiration surely would add more volatility… will watch carefully for reentry next month.



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
eastj said:
If someone is more familiar with how NAAIM is read, please feel free to correct my observations.
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You're correct, it's best used as a contrary indicator and combined with other indicators. With all sentiment indicators, it's the extremes that matter (March 2020). Below 60 has worked well since March 2020. Below 40 seems to be a good long term buy (March 2009 it was under 10). Anything above 95 means market participation is burning pretty hot.

Don't get too caught up in the bullish and bearish readings, just use the NAAIM number at the site. Despite NAAIM's words below, it is widely used as a sentiment gauge.

It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and to stay in tune with what the market is doing at any given time.
Click to expand...
 
CoolHand said the following about NAAIM in his thread post 7685

coolhand said:
View attachment 46098

Here is a chart from the NAAIM website where they plot the NAAIM Number. I suspect that the numbers on the left side of the chart can go negative or more positive than what is shown, but that doesn't generally happen. Let's say that 60 is neutral (which it is on this chart). The further above that neutral line the number goes, the more bullish the reading. By the same token, the further lower that the number goes below the neutral line, the more bearish the reading.

For anyone reading this, don't over-analyze the reading. There is some subjectively involved. All you are trying to do is get a sense of how the smart money is positioned overall. Are they collectively bullish, bearish or somewhere in between?

My personal perspective on how I read the weekly NAAIM reading is also shaped by other data that changes week to week (not dramatically), but be aware that I have been using NAAIM for probably 10 years now and nothing takes the place of experience.
Click to expand...
 
Charts as of a few mins ago. What strikes as significant is that the S fund has broken above the longer term (blue box) for tge second time since February. The first break out in June quickly failed. Will see how this one does. As for C fund, it also has broken above a mid-term term trendline established since May this year.

S Fund
Dwcpf.png

C Fund
SPX now.png

I FUND - EFA. now.png

AGG now.png
 
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