DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[cedarpine]

Perhaps a better day tomorrow. I have been off on a risk move a day or two in the past so I held onto my position. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning. For a moment there the S fund look like it was going to have a decent day and then flop.

SPX crosses 21 Moving Average to establish short term bearish trend…


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[DreamboatAnnie]

Good observation!! C fund has tended to be supported by 50 MA last few times that it dropped... So maybe it drops another 50 points...or so to about 4348 over next couple days???

 

[rangerray]

Good observation!! C fund has tended to be supported by 50 MA last few times that it dropped... So maybe it drops another 50 points...or so to about 4348 over next couple days???

And there's no way I can avoid riding it down today apparently. Only one more move for me this month.

 

[flalaw97]

Hoping that, like the past three months, this is just a short dip in the middle of the month before turning back up.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts as of few mins ago.

S fund-if it drops below 2150, it might continue to blue longer term box line that we have been in since February. I tend to think we could hold around this area because the histogram on MACD 5,9,2 is holding stead although it has not yet started crossing up. I guess today by COB should give more info.



C Fund - Looks like it could get down further and be supported by 50 EMA redline, as the 50 has acted as support during past few months when there was a drop. of course, one can never be certain.



I Fund -now supported by 100 MA (gold line). but notice how 10 EMA us close to crossing below 20 SMA, Bollinger band mid-point (ink dotted line). Plus Momentum indicators still pointing down. Maybe more weakness in days ahead??



F Fund -looks in good position to rise. watching Slow Sto

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Treasuries continue down, and of course VIX is up while stocks down with its inverse relationship to stocks.

VIX

View attachment 50491

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Needless to say, but I am not yet entering. Want to see MACD 5,9,2 turn up, but seems close to entering... will look at intraday now to see if any indications looking for upturn.
But Want to avoid the falling knife.

Best wishes to Everyone!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

NAAIM - report. Dropped to 70.57 from last week's reading of 97.55. Coolhand used to report on this weekly.
Source Link:https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

:
Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
08/18/2021 70.57 -50 35.00 90.00 100.00 200 58.22
08/11/2021 97.55 25 80.00 100.00 102.69 200 38.54
08/04/2021 97.72 25 85.00 100.00 105.38 200 41.16
07/28/2021 78.39 -50 72.75 92.50 100.00 150 43.07
07/21/2021 71.04 0 50.00 77.00 100.00 200 48.75
07/14/2021 93.27 25 76.25 90.00 100.00 200 37.85
07/07/2021 82.54 0 52.50 87.88 100.00 200 42.66
06/30/2021 91.72 0 80.38 100.00 100.00 200 38.18
06/23/2021 70.86 -50 57.50 80.38 100.00 130 42.79
06/16/2021 98.52 50 80.00 100.00 103.88 200 34.16

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM - report. Dropped to 70.57 from last week's reading of 97.55. Coolhand used to report on this weekly.
Source Link:https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

I have been following NAAIM for a bit as CH described it as the "Smart Money" - I don't have a good handle on it, but it has dropped like this each of the past 3 months (May 12 from 87 to 47; Jun 23 from 98 to 70; July 21 from 93 to 71 and today from 97 to 70). After each of those it rose again and these each coincided with the dip in the S&P500. Of course the NAAIM is published on Thursday (dated Wednesday) so not really helpful as a predictor? But it does put the drop into perspective: that alone is not an indication of the market headed to bear country.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Great observations Flawlaw! That correlation is Very Interesting. So the drop occurs just before increase the following week! That site makes it clear it is not a predictor on future. I like that they are reporting how their member money managers are reporting how they have investor's funds invested. But that seems to go against what they are reporting....hummmm????

I have been following NAAIM for a bit as CH described it as the "Smart Money" - I don't have a good handle on it, but it has dropped like this each of the past 3 months (May 12 from 87 to 47; Jun 23 from 98 to 70; July 21 from 93 to 71 and today from 97 to 70). After each of those it rose again and these each coincided with the dip in the S&P500. Of course the NAAIM is published on Thursday (dated Wednesday) so not really helpful as a predictor? But it does put the drop into perspective: that alone is not an indication of the market headed to bear country.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

COB Charts. Will not be able to post tomorrow, but will be watching for entry. Today, dip buyers stepped in an hour before close but then the sellers stepped in 30 minutes before close. Still not seeing an upturn in momentum indicators, with exception of RSI(2) on C Fund. Will see how things go tomorrow.

Best wishes to you all! :smile:

S Fund pretty much closed where it opened. MACD 5,9,2 not yet turning up.



C Fund


I Fund


F Fund

 

[eastj]

NAAIM standard deviation is also comparatively higher than other weeks - possibly indicating there is a huge difference of opinion among smart money as well (58.22 this week, 38.54 last week).

Additional comparisons:

Most Bearish Holder: -50 this week, 25 last week
Quart 1 (25% at/below) 35 this week, 80 last week
Quart 2 (median) 90 this week, 100 last week
Quart 3 (25% at/above) 100 this week, 102.7 last week
Most Bullish Holder: 200 this week, 200 last week.


If I'm interpreting this indicator correctly, it looks like bears have turned much more bearish, but bulls have not changed their position as much. And if the median only moved from 100 to 90, I think it means a good part of smart money isn't selling heavily...yet.


If someone is more familiar with how NAAIM is read, please feel free to correct my observations.

One last bit of helpful information regarding what to look for in NAAIM: https://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2021/01/looking-deeper-at-the-naaim-su-308.html

The article indicates that we could use NAAIM to find market tops and bottoms by looking at Most Bearish/Most Bullish columns.

"It turns out that when the most bearish respondent in the survey is himself pretty bullish, that is a fairly good indication of a topping condition for stock prices. And the converse also works for the "Bullish" number marking good bottoms"


-Jules

I have been following NAAIM for a bit as CH described it as the "Smart Money" - I don't have a good handle on it, but it has dropped like this each of the past 3 months (May 12 from 87 to 47; Jun 23 from 98 to 70; July 21 from 93 to 71 and today from 97 to 70). After each of those it rose again and these each coincided with the dip in the S&P500. Of course the NAAIM is published on Thursday (dated Wednesday) so not really helpful as a predictor? But it does put the drop into perspective: that alone is not an indication of the market headed to bear country.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Entered 25 C n 25S

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Had issues logging in to TSP.gov.. late trans and late decision Best wishes to all...

 

[kb9nvh]

I went out to Mow and forgot what I was doing. So. No move for me.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi KB, I have had that happen too....the forgetting part, but not the mowing. I'm kind of an "indoor girl"! Lol.... Best wishes to you and everyone!

 

[cmil1212]

Had issues logging in to TSP.gov.. late trans and late decision Best wishes to all...

Yep. Where’s that pin? Get it 20 mins later.


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[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts ....

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi...Daily charts. Market doing well...:smile:
Thinking about moving C over to S, but will see. I could just buy more S??? Decisions decisions...

Best wishes to you all!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Then again... Almost want to just pull some out to ensure some coin for this month...eeeeee.....:nuts: