DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

maybe some repositioning, plus what sounds like good news on day of announcement often gets chewed on overnight with a different bent the next day. Some possibly deciding to get in or take gains. Not sure what shake out will be. But in just looking at charts, I can't ignore that we made a lower high on S fund... looks a bit weak short-term. It didn't reach upper band. Sometimes resistance is at mid-point of Bollinger. Looks like this could be forming a short term double bottom (W)... but will see. Also looking for NAAIM reading that Coolhand puts out.

I am thinking to take some gains, but maybe rest of herd thinking tge same???? lol.. :cheesy:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Staying in ... NAAIM just posted 78.55 up from 48.62 last week.

 

[kb9nvh]

I stayed in too....looks like the afternoon the floor dropped out.

 

[mmk119]

same here - i stayed in. Thanks DB

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yep... it has dropped. Price looks like it will close below 10 EMA, and that is clear exit signal for me. Will cross fingers and hope for a little bounce tomorrow for exit. At this point, still in green based on 3/10 entry, but just barely. Some folks might have enough gorilla glue to ride it out. It does now look like a short-term "W", but no idea how deep a drop. Need to watch FBN and get online later to find out what caused drop. I do believe Fed Powell spoke again sometime this afternoon. No idea what he said., but it must have been disturbing!

 

[joblin20]

So if the price drops below the 50 day moving average, it is considered a high risk trade correct?

 

[bleeck]

It would be nice if the 50 DMA held support today.

 

[kb9nvh]

Not gonna lie... It smarts a little bit.

 

[felixthecat]

10 yr bond yield rose to 14 month high spooking the market today. Inflationary pressure is materializing...albeit for the short term due to USA opening up for business. I noticed oil and of course our local pump gasoline has been rising. Food is rising. Mortgage rates rising. Prices in general look to be rising this year. Easy loan money for companies will become more costly.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

 

[nasa1974]

10 yr bond yield rose to 14 month high spooking the market today. Inflationary pressure is materializing...albeit for the short term due to USA opening up for business. I noticed oil and of course our local pump gasoline has been rising. Food is rising. Mortgage rates rising. Prices in general look to be rising this year. Easy loan money for companies will become more costly.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

felix,

It's been awhile. Welcome back.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So today's drop clearly a result of large increase in 10-year yield.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Not gonna lie... It smarts a little bit.

Yes it does.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

10 yr bond yield rose to 14 month high spooking the market today. Inflationary pressure is materializing...albeit for the short term due to USA opening up for business. I noticed oil and of course our local pump gasoline has been rising. Food is rising. Mortgage rates rising. Prices in general look to be rising this year. Easy loan money for companies will become more costly.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oil-sees-biggest-single-day-loss-since-april-2020-1030225913

Yes... this is causing a great deal of fear. Thank you for great points Felix!

I had heard a few days ago, that oil prices are anticipated to continue rising (per Goldman Saks) which is good for economy but I guess bad for inflation. I also heard that the China virus was hitting Europe again! But...I did not put those two together! As you likely know, oil took a major nose dive today... West Texas Intermediate dropped 9% while Brent and USO dropped around 7%. This article makes point that due increase in Covid in Europe, that affected oil prices. hummm... didn't think they drove that much!

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oil-prices-today-europe-lockdowns-vaccines-us-dollar-wti-brent-2021-3-1030225764

 

[felixthecat]

I know right! Well, I lost three family members and got hit badly by two hurricanes that caused major home damage. I'm still trying to claw back. I'm still hanging around but with the amount of work required and still to come...just have had hardly anytime to do anything TSPTalk related. You might say the last few years have been hell.

 

[retread]

So today's drop clearly a result of large increase in 10-year yield.

But TNX outside of upper bollinger band so maybe it starts to come back down? Hoping anyway? Of course look how long it rode the upper bollinger band from mid to late Feb

 

[pmaloney]

Good to hear from you. Hang in there! :smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

I know right! Well, I lost three family members and got hit badly by two hurricanes that caused major home damage. I'm still trying to claw back. I'm still hanging around but with the amount of work required and still to come...just have had hardly anytime to do anything TSPTalk related. You might say the last few years have been hell.

FTC, sorry to hear about the bad patch, you'll get through it. Hang tough.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So if the price drops below the 50 day moving average, it is considered a high risk trade correct?

That depends on your strategy and whether you are using a short, mid or long term trading strategy. But I understand one should NOT use a single indicator for trading.

I use a lot of indicators to assess market, many of which I don't discuss on daily basis. My strategy is short-term, so I likely would not be in market if price was below 50 daily EMA unless I thought market had reached a bottom and I was buying in to take advantage of a reversal or quick dead cat bounce. The problem is in ability to find the bottom and not jump in to catch a falling knife in the short term.

In my opinion, buying into market when price is below 50 EMA is higher risk because of possibility that the knife is still falling. But other traders with good reading of market could see entry as an opportunity.

I believe Romulus at Grok Trade doesn't buy ETFs if below 200-250 day MA. But he uses many other indicators including how much volume a stock trades at, etc.

Not sure if I answered your question, but I think its relative to your tolerance for risk and loss and goals.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I know right! Well, I lost three family members and got hit badly by two hurricanes that caused major home damage. I'm still trying to claw back. I'm still hanging around but with the amount of work required and still to come...just have had hardly anytime to do anything TSPTalk related. You might say the last few years have been hell.

That is very sad Felix. I am sorry for your loss. Hang in there and may God continue to lift you up and heal your pain. Prayers for you and your family.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

But TNX outside of upper bollinger band so maybe it starts to come back down? Hoping anyway? Of course look how long it rode the upper bollinger band from mid to late Feb

Just now heard on FBN (Susan Lei on Varney) said that today Federal reserve refused to extend Covid policy and so banks must keep more money in reserve, reducing supply of money available for loans and causing further rise in interest rates. Also, causing bank stocks to go down today, due to lower anticipated earnings (less money to lend out).