DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Correction - please disregard comment about Friday.. no triple witching. Too tired late last night when I was reading an old article. :(

DreamboatAnnie said:
Its nice to see market recovering from skittishness this morning! :D:D:D

I understand Tesla now coming into S&P 500 might have effect on Friday, in addition to Triple Witching. Article I read on Tesla was unclear on market impact. Will check on that more this week. Best wishes to all!
Click to expand...
 
I love DBA charts! They have all of the lines (including the slow stochastics which many don't include). Looks like DWCPF (S) continues to be embedded slow stochastic, in an upward channel with lots of support lines below. Repeatedly going over the top of Bollinger bands though and "oversold" which might indicate a drop to come? With the NAAIM bullish and the VIX still pretty low, seems like S is the place to be, until it isn't. Thanks DBA!
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Here are the current charts ... equities look good. Bonds are a stinker!
...
Click to expand...

AGG (Bonds) are stinkers, but they will help buffer things when the S Fund corrects.

I don't pretend to know when the S Fund will correct, although it does seem a bit floaty right now. What I think I can say is that if it dumps 8% in a day, with a comparable dump in C and I, I will lose about 4% (because F will go up). I can bail deep into the following day or maybe even the next - which may allow me to see if it is correcting or free-falling. Don't get me wrong, in a normal market I will always have 60% - 80% in C/S/I. Bonds - and especially Social Security Bonds (G) - just kinda suck as a major holding in normal or aggressive markets.

Personally, I just wouldn't want to be letting it all hang out in the most variant of our funds. I had my account dump 8% in an afternoon (after IFT deadline - the morning looked good to go) in 2008 and dump another 8% before COB the next day - which is when my IFT took hold. Not happy with that. I was actually up +7% YTD one day in 2008 and down -11% the next. Not fun, not fun at all. With my current allocation those two crash days would have left me about even or a couple of points down YTD.:eek:
 
Here are some OLD charts from 2008...might be a little hard to see as these are a full year of daily candles. But what I have taken away from studying this crash plus others is that being in market when 20 dma has crossed below 50dma can hurt a lot!

Also notice that while the biggest drops started in equities right at start of October, the F fund followed down the rabbit hole a few days later....but did recover more quickly, so diversifying would helped. Not sure of percentage losses if comparing the two, but the drops on all charts looked bad....too much red! The key was to not exit once you were too far down, thing is its hard to tell how more the knife will fall.

Also, Not saying you can't make money, but you would have had to artfully navigate the little bounces on the way down. EX. Last half of October, if you had exited before the largest drops. EX2: mid July to mid August. That happened when MACD was above its signal line and moving upward and when Stochastic did that with MACD at tge same time...still very risky!

While that 20 below 50 DNA would have helped in 2008, I'm not sure its as good now because of super fast trading happening now.

2008

DWCPF -daily.png

AGG now.png
 
I must admit, I don't much like the F fund in GENERAL. However, right now it looks like it might be good since it has dropped a lot, Stochastic dropped below 28 and is now turning up....MACD could follow??? Today's big increase is very nice! I might pull some out if S fund to put into F...not yet sure. hummm.....

View attachment 48233
 
Sorry, no crystal ball... but looking at S fund indicators and candle forming is indicating neutral to me...not sure. I never feel good being in market, but gotta make money somehow. The VIX indicates (via Stochastic) that it might be going up, which means inverse for stocks. But per MACD, its pointing down... so seems undecided to me. But, going up and down Is how the market moves to get where its going. Question is where is it going, and I don't know. :(


But...my decision is made, to stay in a little longer. Had nice gain yesterday, so I will hold a bit longer.

DWCPF -daily.png

VIX.png
 
Right now, tge 15 minute intraday charts indicate it is moving up. Will see how it does, crossing fingers and hope for best! I am trying to stick it out and not get so jumpy and drop out!
Best wishes to you all! F fund does look a little yummy...:smile:
 
Jumpy, but Sticky pants deployed.... I hate the Market and this call! :blink: Today is Options expiry (3rd Friday of each month) so a little volatility is expected. Looking at charts and technically nothing has changed, but I don't like candle formation....oh but C and I funds look to be crossing below 80 on Stochastics, but not just yet...wait to end of day to see what it does....

Equities might come down more next week, but Will see... hope I'm wrong. No Exit for Me. F fund looks like it could go up some. Dollar going up. oh and those long wicks on bottom are good indicating buyers stepping in...like that!

Best Wishes and Have a Great Weekend! :D:D:D

PS Haven't seen Whipsaw posting and no longer on regular tracker, so maybe he went to Premium service. Hope he is well.
 
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I've also been following Coolhand's account talk - about NAAIM (and his charts). also keeping up with Ira's videos. and of course all of your charts DB!
I agree, markets look way to high; but, sentiment and big money remain bullish. I pulled back for a modest gain recently, and am awaiting another entry point. there will always be one - just don't know when. I see the market continuing to climb for the next 6 months (maybe even till mid next year) but, there has to be a significant pull back before long - we are way, way overdue. and of course there is the ever impending crash...
 
Mr. Ira is reviewing our Spydr ETF's before our cutoff daily with buy, sell, hold numbers for members and we weekly long term review. PM if you need more info. Not soliciting; doing all I can to build our teams wealth.
 
Hi MMK and Grimm, I also believe Market continues up mid-term ... Its a BULL! :D

But my entry on this current buy was at a high entry point, so as I felt fortunate to have made some money, just figure its best to pull out and wait for the next drop to catch the next wave. However, those pull backs seem very short-lived and hard to catch. Next week --Tues-Wed have FOMC meetings... not that I would think Fed will do anything to rock the boat, but I think I sleep better with just my toes dipped in for now. :rolleyes:

PS. I also like Ira Epstein, but have not watched him much since Christmas... I need to get back in gear. I Like Groktrade too! I like GrokTrade- Romulus' Thursday night 30 minute FREE webinars. He goes over SPX, IWM, etc. and tons of charts. I heard Ira was going to start giving signals for ETFs that track the Indexes that our TSP follows, but did not follow up on that. I also like to read Tom's daily commentary, plus charts and comments by Coolhand and Bquat and others. I have been trying to look more into spotting divergences that often mark reversals...Romulus often comments on that. Wealth Management's Rob Hoffman also comments on divergences.... It's great that Swavet mentioned free webinar going on this week featuring many speakers on market, options, etc.... he opened a Wealth365Summit thread with link.....free all week!
 
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Charts. See some divergence with RSI and MACD. Both charts have rising bearish wedges, and price is hitting those resistance points.
Best wishes to you all! :D:D:D

DWCPF -daily.jpg

SPX now.jpg
 
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