DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[pmaloney]

I'm staying in at least until the later part of this week but you may want to check out Helene Meisler's article on Real Money Nov 23.
Comparing Market Swoons, and Not a Moment Too Soon. We take a closer look at whether the current market decline bears similarity to the drop of a few years ago.


https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inv...ket-swoons-and-not-a-moment-too-soon-14789680

She did a nice analysis with thoughts that the breakdown that bottomed in October 2014 and was followed after ten months by the double swoon in 2015 may me more similar to our two breakdowns in January and October of 2018. So we may go straight up here at least for a while but don't forget oil prices kept dropping and the double bottom in 2015 was followed by another double bottom in the beginning of 2016 before things finally rose again.

Best Wishes.:smile:

 

[Mcqlives]

I'm not liking this enough to take the risk. Maybe I would ride for a day if I had less in the markets right now but not with 100% in. Making my first move of month to G. I may end up buying higher but risk/reward isn't good enough for me to take the chance.

If you want to know my reasons why...read Tom's commentary. He summarizes my thoughts much better than I could put it to paper. Only thing I am doing is interpreting his comments and letting the fear of the unknown outweigh my innate greed.

 

[Mcqlives]

I'm staying in at least until the later part of this week but you may want to check out Helene Meisler's article on Real Money Nov 23.
Comparing Market Swoons, and Not a Moment Too Soon. We take a closer look at whether the current market decline bears similarity to the drop of a few years ago.


https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inv...ket-swoons-and-not-a-moment-too-soon-14789680

She did a nice analysis with thoughts that the breakdown that bottomed in October 2014 and was followed after ten months by the double swoon in 2015 may me more similar to our two breakdowns in January and October of 2018. So we may go straight up here at least for a while but don't forget oil prices kept dropping and the double bottom in 2015 was followed by another double bottom in the beginning of 2016 before things finally rose again.

I missed that one. Thanks! It is a nice summary. I did consider staying in after reading this but with the markets/TSP (assuming so) being closed on Wednesday I would be in a more convoluted lack of decision state tomorrow. Taking my profit and running.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I don't blame you for wanting to exit if 100% invested right now... I am only risking at 50%. Took my profits last week with two 25% exits on different days.
I am looking to exit tomorrow. Markets are still pretty much around +173-220 on DOW. Wednesday the market will be closed in honor of former President Bush Sr (#41). So tomorrow is my target exit day. Will see how market looks in the morning...but its getting close to exit time.


So there was also fear of Govt shut down at end of week, but I understand Congress is going to vote on Thur/Fri to pass a 1 week continuation (??) until the following Friday due to the State funeral for President Bush on Wednesday this week.

Hoping that with a buy in later in the month for Santa, I will finally break into positive territory for the year.... geez!!!!

I'm not liking this enough to take the risk. Maybe I would ride for a day if I had less in the markets right now but not with 100% in. Making my first move of month to G. I may end up buying higher but risk/reward isn't good enough for me to take the chance.

If you want to know my reasons why...read Tom's commentary. He summarizes my thoughts much better than I could put it to paper. Only thing I am doing is interpreting his comments and letting the fear of the unknown outweigh my innate greed.

 

[Mcqlives]

Hope you make money tomorrow!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thanks but I dunno.....Futures down -230 pts on DOW mini....dang!! .
But I thought they might move up or down a bit...but not this.....oh well!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Exiting to G fund 100%. I looked at charts and while I would like to stay in to see how it goes on Thursday, I am looking at charts and with the downturn this morning, the C fund is dropping in momentum. I must exit per my strategy. uggh…… out I go! If we do not drop further, I may actually still end day in positive territory but regardless, I live to fight another day when the Santa Rally starts. Just anticipating a pull back now and with this market, no idea how much that will be.

Earlier this morning we were down more 200 on Dow, then it backed off to only be down around 84 pts and then after Trump tweet on China it dropped to 200 again. Humm….I think the negotiations are not nearly complete. Would love to see market breakthrough the current overhead resistance, but doesn't look like that will happen this week... but who knows... anything can happen!

Best Wishes to you All !!!!!

 

[Mcqlives]

I got lucky on this trade for sure. I have been operating under my bear market rules for a while now and volatility has let me make some good money off of using both trades the past two months. Now that ^VIX is headed back down I will have to adjust my mindset some and look at the longer term. If it drops into the 15's then I'll probably be back to a buy and holder. Hoping for a Santa rally to start sometime soon...maybe next week.

 

[bmneveu]

Now that ^VIX is headed back down I will have to adjust my mindset some and look at the longer term. If it drops into the 15's then I'll probably be back to a buy and holder. Hoping for a Santa rally to start sometime soon...maybe next week.

VIX is up 21% right now! :laugh:

 

[Mcqlives]

VIX is up 21% right now! :laugh:

Yep...but it bounced at 21. I think it was Birch...or another one (Show-me maybe) from years ago, that put it in my head that 15ish to 21ish ^VIX was the tug of war zone for volatility. You can have volatile bulls/bears and low volatile bulls/bears outside of that range but that range is where they seem to dog it out.

This fight is obviously not done between the two.

 

[Mcqlives]

Regarding the S fund...I didn't think it would hit there today but here we are at the 1310 range. This has to hold or we are headed for a 4th test of 1284 since October 24. Next stop under that is probably 1226 - 1240 range.

One more day like this and we are in serious bear territory.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok ...so this totally sucks.....once again our 4 hour window to wait , cross fingers and pray for nothing bad to happen has gotten me again...I HATE TSP!!!!! :hitwithrock: :blackeye: :smashfreakB: :aargh4: :crazy: :irked: :chairshot: I feel sick...… uke: Do I seem just a little pissed off to you????? Boo...Hisss… hum... anybody want to jump in now? My friend Patron... where are you when I need you!!!

I finally hit positive territory to now drop back down... why I am not surprised??? .. .. here I go again! Digging! :crying:

The only good news is that I only was in 50%. uggh… it makes me feel so much better... not!

 

[Mcqlives]

DBA wins the award for the most gif's in one post!

I feel for ya! Thursday should be very telling after today. Both C and S closed at support level ranges. But both ended on a very strong down trend. I am glad I got out but I sure didn't see this coming! I was thinking we might give back part of yesterday, or maybe all of it, but not this pain for sure! Coolhand should have some good comments to read tonight!

 

[nasa1974]

Yesterday must have been payback for the bears. Took nice bite out of the account and I was a little more that a thousand away from breaking even for 2018. :1244:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Now that is funny! I actually tried to put in more gif's because I was pretty pissed off... then I hit the submit button and found out there was a limit of 10 !!!! uggh….. its like not being able to punch a pillow as many times as you want! Afterwards... I thought it funny … LOL...

P.S. I may need to invest in a heavy bag! :smile::dance:

DBA wins the award for the most gif's in one post! ...

 

[Mcqlives]

DBA! Hello!?!?! Where are you???!!!!! We need your insightful comments! Or at least some smart ass'ed running commentary! Please?? With sugar on it??

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Oh yooouuuuuu hoooooo Mcqlives! I'm back... .. I'm not pissed off at the market anymore....wellll...at least not for a couple more days. Once I get back in I probably will be.

I had a great weekend with my friend "Patron" and UFC 231 fight on Saturday night. Great pairing! Gosh, I would love to do to the market what Max Holloway did to Brian Ortega! One hell of a bloody slug-fest! And the women did great too... Valentina... wow..she is scaaarrry!

But in all seriousness, I think the market is too scary for entry....but, it does look like entry is fast approaching … just not sure its really the big guy with the beard! I feel a fakeout coming on. Wonderin about that...eekkkkkk! :worried:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I am getting motivated to enter. Signal line crossing up above 20 on Stochastic...just don't like getting in on an up day. 25 minutes to decide.
If I go in, it will be at 75%C fund. Geezz……decisions decisions

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Entry - 40%C-40%S-20%G. Rolling the dice! Thinking this week maybe better than next week since we have Fed meeting plus the whole Govt shut down looming. Quick in and out??? Maybe will exit slowly... well here goes the big leap! HO! HO! HO! I hope Santa has arrived even if for only a few days! :dance:

Best wishes to everyone on your Investments!!!!!! :smile:

 

[felixthecat]

Feeling okay about the trade made yesterday for today and will hold as this is a broad world rally. I don't believe it is a sucker rally and should carry over Thursday. Will take another look for Friday but I see this sprint as the Santa Rally now. I do not see good things later in the month unless you like coal in your stocking.