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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
Squale,
Regarding your "hope the market drops like a hammer" wish, please, please don't wish that on those of us who are still in and have our finger on the button.Lady
As so many have come to learn of me, my wish is, for all to do well.
Please understand the difference between Conflicting Goals and the
desire for every single member to do well for their family.
I'm hoping for a better entry point come June. In a perfect world,
the market would never drop and go straight up for everyones benefit.
That indeed, would be my wish for you and everyone else. The minute
my money is invested into stocks, you'll read that I hope the market
will Fly Like An Eagle. The same wish applies, that everyone benefits.
Birchtree is right, the stock funds could rally for those 8 days. If they
do, my hopes for a better entry may be dashed. But, my wish for you
to do well, will be intact.
I believe we may be having a good entry point for the USMs in early June. Here are the charts:
View attachment 3953 View attachment 3954
As you can see, the F fund is tanking while the C fund (the S fund is similar) looks like it is building momentum again. My versions of TSPGo's charts provide support for the impression as well, I'll show those in the next post.
View attachment 3953 View attachment 3954
As you can see, the F fund is tanking while the C fund (the S fund is similar) looks like it is building momentum again. My versions of TSPGo's charts provide support for the impression as well, I'll show those in the next post.
First, the Price Charts:
View attachment 3958 View attachment 3959
Now, the Slope Charts:
View attachment 3960 View attachment 3961
As you can see, the F fund has fallen below both of its moving averages while the S fund has climbed above its "cautionary" average. The slope charts show that the F fund is moving sharply to the downside while the S fund may be beginning to climb into positive territory.
Based upon this data, and a gut feel on what is happening in the markets, I am looking at making an IFT into the USMs on June 2. As that day approaches, I'll say more.
View attachment 3958 View attachment 3959
Now, the Slope Charts:
View attachment 3960 View attachment 3961
As you can see, the F fund has fallen below both of its moving averages while the S fund has climbed above its "cautionary" average. The slope charts show that the F fund is moving sharply to the downside while the S fund may be beginning to climb into positive territory.
Based upon this data, and a gut feel on what is happening in the markets, I am looking at making an IFT into the USMs on June 2. As that day approaches, I'll say more.
Looks like things are going south today. I'll be watching the USMs (the S fund in particular) for a good time to get in. Would it be today since the Small Caps are down? uh ... I'm gonna wait for a clearer signal than that. In the meantime, I'm still in the G fund.
Hi Dan, Been out of pocket for a while. Trying to get my new house in order and haven't got to the internet for a while.
Looks like you have done very well during May!! Good for you. I stayed in G and made next to nothing!! I couldn't keep tabs on the "goings on", and didn't have access to TSP until the middle of May so I just dropped out....for a while.
I was looking to get in today, but I agree with you, about jumping the gun, and am still waiting on the sidelines until something more solid develops. This market can go south real fast. Looks like Nsurf got in to 100I just at the last minute. Hope he keep makin lots of money.
By the way, love your charts!!! Keep up the good work. Take care.
Looks like you have done very well during May!! Good for you. I stayed in G and made next to nothing!! I couldn't keep tabs on the "goings on", and didn't have access to TSP until the middle of May so I just dropped out....for a while.
I was looking to get in today, but I agree with you, about jumping the gun, and am still waiting on the sidelines until something more solid develops. This market can go south real fast. Looks like Nsurf got in to 100I just at the last minute. Hope he keep makin lots of money.
By the way, love your charts!!! Keep up the good work. Take care.
Hi Dan, 
Haven't heard from you for a while. Are you as befuttled about this market as I am? I still haven't made much headway with my losses from last january...being in the G fund forever. I'm still pretty close to where I started in january 2008. I'm just to bewildered to stick my neck out in this market to have it cut off again. It seems that every up side is followed by a bigger down side. Then it takes a long time to get back up. What to do...What to do?!!!!
Any words of encouragementor enlightenment?:nuts::worried:
Craig
Haven't heard from you for a while. Are you as befuttled about this market as I am? I still haven't made much headway with my losses from last january...being in the G fund forever. I'm still pretty close to where I started in january 2008. I'm just to bewildered to stick my neck out in this market to have it cut off again. It seems that every up side is followed by a bigger down side. Then it takes a long time to get back up. What to do...What to do?!!!!
Any words of encouragementor enlightenment?:nuts::worried:
Craig
Hi Dan,
Haven't heard from you for a while. Are you as befuttled about this market as I am? I still haven't made much headway with my losses from last january...being in the G fund forever. I'm still pretty close to where I started in january 2008. I'm just to bewildered to stick my neck out in this market to have it cut off again. It seems that every up side is followed by a bigger down side. Then it takes a long time to get back up. What to do...What to do?!!!!
Any words of encouragementor enlightenment?:nuts::worried:
Craig
Hi Craig,
Yeah, I'm just as bewildered as you. Right now, am waiting for a good point to get in ... am mainly watching the S fund right now. Don't like either the C or the I funds in the short term - they look like they are on a downward trend to me.
I don't think we're out of the woods on this bank business yet and the oil situation .. holy cow. It appears like the market finally reacted reasonably to an oil spike and 0.5% growth in unemployment - hopefully that is the signal of something new on the horizon. Maybe I should be in F ... but Im not. I guess I'm comfortable riding things out in G for a while longer. To use a bit of sailing lingo, I'll wait for some fairer winds before I weigh anchor.
Dan
Thanks Dan,
I guess I am in the same boat. Only my boat has been standing standing still in the middle of the ocean and taking on water for a while. I spent my gains in the middle of October of last year but left the money in stocks. Then I lost it all and then some by the middle of January. Now I'm having to pay for my purchases out of my retirement pocket. My wife is none to happy about that. Anyway....I an axnious to show a profit before too long...even if it is a small one......to stop all the negative talk at home. But I just can't bring myself to buy in...too big a chance to take another hit. I'm also looking for something to tell me to buy...even short term...if I can make a few buckets. I squantered my moves in May by doing nothing. Looking back, maybe that was not the best...cause a lot of players made some good money in May. Oh well!!! If you see any fairer winds on the horizon...that look goods, clue me in, OK?!!! I'll do the same!!
Have a great day.
I guess I am in the same boat. Only my boat has been standing standing still in the middle of the ocean and taking on water for a while. I spent my gains in the middle of October of last year but left the money in stocks. Then I lost it all and then some by the middle of January. Now I'm having to pay for my purchases out of my retirement pocket. My wife is none to happy about that. Anyway....I an axnious to show a profit before too long...even if it is a small one......to stop all the negative talk at home. But I just can't bring myself to buy in...too big a chance to take another hit. I'm also looking for something to tell me to buy...even short term...if I can make a few buckets. I squantered my moves in May by doing nothing. Looking back, maybe that was not the best...cause a lot of players made some good money in May. Oh well!!! If you see any fairer winds on the horizon...that look goods, clue me in, OK?!!! I'll do the same!!
Have a great day.
Hey Dan, I'm not sure what my report card says for June.... Not as positive as yours..but I went from ranked 81 on the auto tracker to currently ranked 31....without doing anything. That's something to feel good about!! I just stayed in the G fund. If autotracker would have done what I asked and fixed my IFT to the right day, I would be ranked around number 21. Looks like you're somewhere in the top ten. I think everyone's return just came down closer to me...I really didn't go anywhere..being in the G fund.
I'll bet it is pretty hot down there in southern Arizona. Even this heat wave in Utah is gettting to me.
How do you handle it?
Keep cool!! how ever you can.
Craig
I'll bet it is pretty hot down there in southern Arizona. Even this heat wave in Utah is gettting to me.
How do you handle it? Keep cool!! how ever you can.
Craig
Yep, same here ... just riding things out in the G fund, waiting for the C and S funds to turn around. I use to get "twitchy" about wanting to get into the market ... but now, as long as I can get back in at a reasonable time, I look upon this as making money. How? Well, the market will come back some day ... so every percent that equities go down now (while I am on the sideline) is a percent return that I'll get when I get back in.
Assuming all goes well, the stars are aligned, etc.
It *is* hot down here in Southern AZ. How do I handle the heat? Well, luckily I have an indoor job so I don't have to go out much. Just have to remember to put up the solar screens in my car and crack the windows a bit. I must have lost about 10 cassette tapes and/or CDs due to them warping in the heat of a closed car.
In the evening ... well, the pool in the back yard helps.
Dan
Good luck Dan,
After yesterday's hit, today may be a good day. In a normal market, the day after a hit would reap a good rally up.....but in today's market when the market goes down today..it's more than likely to go down tomorrow. I hope it doesn't, for your peace of mind.
Enjoy the pool...you deserve it!! Somebody has to live down there..I'm glad it's not me. Things could be worse...you could live in Pheonix or Yuma
.
Take care and good luck today!!
After yesterday's hit, today may be a good day. In a normal market, the day after a hit would reap a good rally up.....but in today's market when the market goes down today..it's more than likely to go down tomorrow. I hope it doesn't, for your peace of mind.
Enjoy the pool...you deserve it!! Somebody has to live down there..I'm glad it's not me. Things could be worse...you could live in Pheonix or Yuma
. Take care and good luck today!!
Things could be worse...you could live in Phoenix or Yuma
My fave comment about Phoenix is: "Phoenix ... it isn't hell, but you can see it from there."
I made that up myself.
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