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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
Barney
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 5
Birch, I am still to green
to make an educated guess. But if I WAG it, I say +350-360.Damn those FED...You can make any kind of an intelligent projection with them continually screwing with the market.
Dan, how long do you think this mini rally will last with this 200B $ infusion before the market realizes that this is NOT a good thing and start selling off?
Dan, how long do you think this mini rally will last with this 200B $ infusion before the market realizes that this is NOT a good thing and start selling off?
I dont know where the G-penny went. Normally that pays off every 5 days or so ... this is like a 7-day stretch, very unusual.
Craig: I have to believe yesterday was a short-term blip but ... what a blip it was! I still think the underlying problems are still there and this recent Fed move isn't going to help Joe and Jane Consumer any.
Speaking of Joe and Jane Consumer, I heard on the radio today that gas prices might see $4.00 a gallon in the weeks to come because of high oil prices. Also, I read yesterday where the price of food has skyrocketed (duh), probably due to increased shipping costs.
It's gonna get worse before it gets better, folks.
Craig: I have to believe yesterday was a short-term blip but ... what a blip it was! I still think the underlying problems are still there and this recent Fed move isn't going to help Joe and Jane Consumer any.
Speaking of Joe and Jane Consumer, I heard on the radio today that gas prices might see $4.00 a gallon in the weeks to come because of high oil prices. Also, I read yesterday where the price of food has skyrocketed (duh), probably due to increased shipping costs.
It's gonna get worse before it gets better, folks.
Expected a small bounce from support, not the 400pt gain. I expect we'll be giving most of that gain back today as much as I'd like to be wrong. Hessian has a couple charts posted on his thread, and the commentary page. http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html - still not sure who writes those but kudos - excellent analysis!
Or..... maybe not.
The interesting think is...the F Fund is up as well. I worry about the effect of Big Ben's report next week, though. I think, no matter what the rate cut becomes, the market is going to react negatively. Unless it's 100 base points...and if it is ...heaven help us. Gas will go crazy and the USD will really tank.
I don't know if the F fund is the place to stay...but we missed the penny in the g fund.. and I don't know where else to be!!! Hiding your head in the sand since Feburay (in the G fund) doesn't suit me well. But, on the other hand, I haven't lost much since then, either.
I don't know if the F fund is the place to stay...but we missed the penny in the g fund.. and I don't know where else to be!!! Hiding your head in the sand since Feburay (in the G fund) doesn't suit me well. But, on the other hand, I haven't lost much since then, either.
The last time all TSP Funds closed in positive territory (Feb 26, 2008) the
F-Fund continued to rise the following 3 days (+.17% /+.58%/+.58%) re-
spectively. This probably means nothing, but I thought I'd throw this little
tid-bit into the mix. I'm gonna "F" it until it goes down. Then, the safe
sands of the G-Fund will see my balding head as well. Move on over, we
have lots of time for our accounts to go positive for the year.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Of course - all we can do is spectulate. IMO with the amazing jump we had yesterday - things will settle down quite a bit. Of course most of us "are hoping this is the bottom" - but that is doubtful. If the near future continues with any resemblense of the past (especially since 10/07) and with the "news that has dominated the economic outlook" since 7/07 - The Markets will certainly continue in their downward course and the "Rate Cut" is pretty much a guarantee. No one wants the economy to stablize and turn around more than BEN. The overwheming BULK of us on this MB are very much ready to go HIGH RISK and let it ride. The Bottom is certainly in the picture (but is likely under the recent gain).
Check Thursdays economic data due out.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
:worried:
Here's Thursdays earnings reports due out.
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3272
:notrust:
Thursday will be a very interesting day.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
:worried:
Here's Thursdays earnings reports due out.
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3272
:notrust:
Thursday will be a very interesting day.
Hallatauer
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 6
With all the changes and moves the Fed made yesterday, I would hope they will let interest rates stay where they are and let the changes and prior rate cuts do their thing. Any more rate cuts would be a disaster, IMHO, for the US economy. It will drive oil and exchange rates even higher and that will be felt in the wallet of everyone in this country. I will continue to stay out of equities until some positive economic news comes out.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
And I think there should not be so much to fear from leaving rates alone. Of course the market would sell on the news, it would be like a temper tantrum of a small child, and a good parent knows the way you deal with a temper tantrum is to simply ignore it, as if it isn't even happening. Within literally a day, maybe two, the market would get over it and be right back to doing what it is supposed to do, make a profit. Inflation is the toothpaste you can't get back in the bottle, and we should prefer a recession over inflation any day of the week.
A very interesting day indeed.
Futures were down dramatically when I left the house this morning but it looks like the market is trying to come off its low. Hopefully it will be another good day for the F-fund, though it appears the AGG has opened in the red. I will remain in the F fund today ... probably tomorrow as well, depends on what the charts tell me.
Futures were down dramatically when I left the house this morning but it looks like the market is trying to come off its low. Hopefully it will be another good day for the F-fund, though it appears the AGG has opened in the red. I will remain in the F fund today ... probably tomorrow as well, depends on what the charts tell me.
Hallatauer
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 6
I was watching CNBC yesterday, I didn't get the economists name but he had some things to say that I found interesting. His basic comments were that recessions happen. They have been happening for years uncontrolled or unchecked until recently. That they are actually good for the economy in the long run. He likened it to a forest fire. That it clears out the underbrush and the dried out, half dead trees to make way for new growth. A recession forces out dying and poorly run companies that drag on the economy and opens the door for new companies to fill the void. Let whatever recession comes along and let it run it's course. We will be better off afterwards with a stronger, revitalized economy rather than fight it and watch the dollar devalue and oil prices skyrocket.
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