Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

Craig,

No offense taken.

It's cool...

350Z

 

[DrFaustus]

Craig,

I took a beating in Feb ... my YTD at the end of Feb was +0.02% ... my current YTD is +0.11% I thought I gave a report on where I was earlier? If not ... I should have and I apologize.

 

[crhuss]

That's OK, Dan. You're still my hero. I'm still down 1.4%, and can't see my way clear to get out of the hole. Give me one very good day....or just one great day and I will be out of the hole. That's what I keep looking for. I would be satisfied with two average good days...whatever it takes to get out of the hole that I made for myself in January.

Aren't you glad that you got out of the meeting late yesterday!!!! We are now below 1300 and looking for that bottom between now and 1270 (I think) IMO.
Have a great weekend.

Craig

 

[Hallatauer]

I decided to ride this out in the F Fund and keeping my head above water. I may go to the G Fund Tuesday and grab the pending penny. Still going to stay out of equities at least until after tax season.

 

[crhuss]

Hey Hallatauer,
I guess if you have a need to come out from under the shelter of the G fund, then the F fund is probably the best place to be in this crazy market. If the trend is your friend, then the F fund was up for the day (Friday), down for the week, up slightly for the last 3 month period (although VERY volatile), and up for the last year.
If the S&P keeps sliding down to that 1270 bottom (maybe), then the F fund should continue rising. If it does for a couple more days, then I may even get in it myself.

Dan, can you provide the 20, 50, 200 and past year DMA for the stocks again? I heard a stock guru suggest that if the current market quote is greater than the past year DMA, then the market is going to move up over the long haul--so buy and hold, but if the current market quote is below the yearly DMA, then sell and stay in cash until it goes above the yearly DMA. Since we only have three moves a month, that may be worth looking at. I would just like to see if that holds any water, historically! Most of these guys just want you to buy stocks through them, cause they get their money no matter what happens. Been there--done that--don't want to do it again.
Good Luck guys,

Craig

 

[DrFaustus]

Dan, can you provide the 20, 50, 200 and past year DMA for the stocks again?

Um ... all of my data is back at the office, I'll have to wait until then. But I can only provide the 20 DMA. I could get the 50 and 200 DMA numbers but I don't normally keep track of those. For the past year .. sheesh ... I guess that would be a 250 DMA for us.

I recently bought a book on Chart Patterns, I hope it discusses the value of these relative DMAs. According to his book, RevShark uses a 50 MA but he was trading stocks real-time. We need to generate sell signals faster than that but that still take market volatility into account - hence the 20 DMA.

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

I'm staying in the G fund today ... will probably get the penny today. Am watching for a breakout in the F fund as I believe stocks will continue to slide.

 

[crhuss]

Dan, I agree that stocks will continue to slide. However, if you look at the past several days in the F fund, there is no picnic over there either. The F fund has dropped continually since around the first part of March, except for last Friday where it increased a little. It has even gone down when stocks have gone down significantly. If you're looking for a turn around, you only have Friday to look at.
The 200DMA is showing that the F fund is leveling off from a pretty good rise earlier in the cycle.
I am eager to get into making money, too (or just tired of sitting on the sidelines) ...and the F fund is probably the safest place to be....but is now the time?
Is there other indicators that I am missing here?
Take care..

Craig

 

[BooDog]

Dan, can you provide the 20, 50, 200 and past year DMA for the stocks again?

Um ... all of my data is back at the office, I'll have to wait until then. But I can only provide the 20 DMA. I could get the 50 and 200 DMA numbers but I don't normally keep track of those. For the past year .. sheesh ... I guess that would be a 250 DMA for us.

I recently bought a book on Chart Patterns, I hope it discusses the value of these relative DMAs. According to his book, RevShark uses a 50 MA but he was trading stocks real-time. We need to generate sell signals faster than that but that still take market volatility into account - hence the 20 DMA.

Dan

Just throwing this out there since I'm new here. This is my recommended book list - Toni Turner is very easy to read and understand without putting you to sleep. LOL I haven't read the entire list yet which was passed on to me from someone else. Most are available through the library. Good luck!

A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner www.toniturner.com

“Short Term Trading in the New Stock Market” Toni Turner

A Beginner's Guide to Short Term Trading by Toni Turner (for swing and position trading which i recommend)

How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas www.darvastrades.com (a good complimentary website to his trading style since he is not on this earth anymore to have his own official website)

The Candlestick Course by Steven Nison www.candlecharts.com

Trend Following by Michael Covel (some of the biggest traders in the world are Trend Followers including John Henry, Jerry Parker, Ed Seykota, The Turtles, Richard Dennis, William Eckhardt, Bill Dunn, Keith Campbell etc.) www.trendfollowing.com

Reminisces of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (about the legendary Jesse Livermore and how he thought about trading)

Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager (about other traders mindsets)

New Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager (same as above)

 

[Hallatauer]

Looks like hanging with the F Fund was the move to make today. Glad I stayed one more day after a drop for last week. Tomorrow I'm in the G Fund.

 

[DrFaustus]

Dan, I agree that stocks will continue to slide. However, if you look at the past several days in the F fund, there is no picnic over there either. The F fund has dropped continually since around the first part of March, except for last Friday where it increased a little. It has even gone down when stocks have gone down significantly. If you're looking for a turn around, you only have Friday to look at. The 200DMA is showing that the F fund is leveling off from a pretty good rise earlier in the cycle. I am eager to get into making money, too (or just tired of sitting on the sidelines) ...and the F fund is probably the safest place to be....but is now the time? Is there other indicators that I am missing here?
Take care..
Craig

Hey Craig,

Well, here is what I am looking at:

View attachment 3497

You're right, the F-fund has been moving down for the past week, but as you can see, it hit the -1 sigma line and bounced up. And as stocks slide, this should continue to go up (I think today is another positive day for the F-fund).

I will admit that I am just as eager as anyone else to start making some money but I think US stocks have a way to fall yet. For now, I will be keeping my eye on the F fund and the I fund as well. But I am in G for tomorrow ...

 

[DrFaustus]

Going 100% F COB today

 

[crhuss]

Hey Dan, Sounds like a winner. I agree and will most likely move that direction as well. According to the autotracker, only 4 of the top 30 members are in stocks today. If my real loss for the year were posted (-1.4), I would be in that top 30. The majority of them are in the G fund right now, with more moving that direction each day. The top three lost money yesterday, and they were either all or part in the stocks.
I don't think we will see a 75 point drop. Too much down side for inflation and USD devaluation. So the market will not like that, and the stocks will continue to drop and bond will increase. This may be the last month before the 'real' two IFTs and out...so I'm going with you tomorrow with the possiblity of a fast retreat back to G fund if the world falls apart.
Will we get the G penny today?
Thanks for the post....I was wondering where you were at in this whole thing today!!!
Take Care, and good luck for us.

Craig

 

[Guest2]

IMO, the G Penny will pay today at COB

 

[DrFaustus]

I don't think we will see a 75 point drop. Too much down side for inflation and USD devaluation. So the market will not like that, and the stocks will continue to drop and bond will increase.

There continues to be a lot of downward pressure on stocks and it appears that stocks are having trouble holding onto the initial gains today.
A cut of 75 basis points sounds like an awful and, even if we do get it, I think it will send a signal that the Fed is in full panic mode.

This may be the last month before the 'real' two IFTs and out...so I'm going with you tomorrow with the possiblity of a fast retreat back to G fund if the world falls apart.

I'm always ready to beat a fast retreat to G. Protect the gains! They are too hard to come by in this market.

Dan

 

[Steadygain]

There continues to be a lot of downward pressure on stocks and it appears that stocks are having trouble holding onto the initial gains today.

I noticed that too - so the fear "WE ARE IN TROUBLE" will spur the FED to jump to the rescue.

A cut of 75 basis points sounds like an awful and, even if we do get it, I think it will send a signal that the Fed is in full panic mode.

I agree - that's how you would think most would see it.

The overwhelming odds are the 75 basis point "emergency rescue" in combination with the recent "Bail Out" which sparked tremendous enthusiasm (at least initially) - will likely spur another rally.

Here we need to remember that almost everything that has been done over the past 6 months are MAJOR DESPERATE EFFORTS TO SPUR THE ECONOMY AND PREVENT "A RECESSION". The end result is a sinking dollar; bogus attempt to make everyone go on an unending spending spree; and crisis after crisis standing out more (instead of less).


I'm always ready to beat a fast retreat to G. Protect the gains! They are too hard to come by in this market.

Dan

Anyway, your move to F made me think twice (and I sincerely appreciate it). The FED will run out of Emergency Cuts and when the gimmicks end - the MARKETS WILL TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES.

 

[Birchtree]

If inflation were truly a problem the bond market would be dropping and interest rates would be jumping. Let's see what the equivalent rents are in the CPI - they may help to calm nerves.

 

[DrFaustus]

They can still continue to print more counterfeit money with nothing to back it up and dump it on the market until the dollar is worth the same or less than the peso. That's when they will stop.

Well, that will make the transition to a "Nafta Dollar" easier, won't it? :grumble:

 

[Asylum]

Well, that will make the transition to a "Nafta Dollar" easier, won't it? :grumble:

how many pesos will that be?

:cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

I remember when I used to visit Canada when their dollar was only worth $0.73 to the American dollar - but of course I didn't have any money at the time. All I would buy were fire crackers and smuggle them back across the border. Anybody remember what a cherry bomb looks like or an M80?