Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[DrFaustus]

Sorry ... was AFK from about 7:30 on today ... looks like I missed a big rally. Figures. Oh well ... hope we can sustain it!

 

[DrFaustus]

I'm beginning to wonder if I know what the hell I'm doing.

On the plus side, the G-penny from yesterday put me into positive territory for the year (yay!) but, on the other hand, I missed a huge turnaround in the I fund (up over 5% since 13 Feb). I don't feel that bad about the C and S funds ... they are up "only" 2.5% or so over the same time frame.

I look for the market to pull back a bit on Wednesday after Bernake speaks ... if the pullback isn't big, I think it would be a good time to get in. Just have to wait and see.

In the meantime, I guess I'll have to be happy with my +.02% for the year. :grumble:

 

[CountryBoy]

Hey Dr.

You got me doubled for the year. :laugh:

CB

 

[Hallatauer]

With the way the markets have been behaving, anything in the positive is a good thing. Most everyone is looking at least at small losses so far this year. I drive myself crazy with daily numbers, I just run them at the end of each month to see how I'm fairing. I'll post up next week but I'm not getting that warm fuzzy feeling... heh

 

[crhuss]

I hear you Dr. F. Although the penny is something, I was really unlucky (or stupid) the first week in January and am still down 2%. I look at the gains....but then I look at the drops, too. Overall, the stock funds have been in a positive direction, and we have lost out on that benefit. When your in stocks, it's hard to watch the stock funds go down and down...then up and down..then down and up again....but I guess if they eventually are on the up side...then that's a good thing. Sitting on the sidelines and watching them increase while I am still in the hole is tough. I keep looking to see how well Ebb is doing. As of 2/22 he is still 6.46 in the red. If he started doing better, I would jump back on board with him. BUT!!! he ain't. I guess his system works when we are in a bull market, but this volitility is tuff for anyone to call.
My wife keeps telling me to wait til I see a good trend upward...cause the down days are just to hard on my psyci...but so is sitting on the side. And this 2 trades a month isn't helping either.
Life goes on and I'm not losing thousands like I did in 2000-2. I guess I just need to keep my eye on the goal...Make a little-don't lose a lot!!! It sure went fast in January when I was playing it fast and loose!! But getting out of the hole would surly be nice.

Have a great day...We will see what happens today and decide maybe tomorrow. Keep me posted on what you think!! Take Care,

Craig

 

[kaitlinsnana]

Dr F, I no longer subscribe to Ebb's chat. Someone said he's getting back on track. I could sure use some guidance.

Gail

 

[DrFaustus]

Dr F, I no longer subscribe to Ebb's chat. Someone said he's getting back on track.

I think that's a bit of a stretch. So far, Ebb's Active Trading system is down 16.23%, though that is off of his low of -17.70%. His TSP allocation strategy (limited moves) is down 6.36% but that is well off of his low at -11.44%.

I've been stuck away from my keyboard and without internet access for most of Monday and Tuesday and likely today and Thursday as well (am trying to get a briefing together). So I'm not sure what kind of guidance I can provide. There's what looks to be a fair amount of bad news on the horizon, some has said that they expect the S&P to slip as far as 1200.

I'd watch what happens when Uncle Ben speaks today. If the market tanks afterward (as it usually does when the Fed speaks), I think you'll be glad to be on the sidelines. If the market responds positively, well ... that could signal a buying opportunity.

Dan

 

[crhuss]

If you look at the charts, we have had an uptrend in the C and I funds (don't know about the S fund) since Feb 8. Volatile, yes, but up. This has come about, largely, because of the Feds or the big rollers interjecting some outside stimulus into the market, (like IBM yesterday). Ebb does really well when the market is going up because he is in the market most of the time. If the market goes up...Ebb goes up...When the market goes down ..... Ebb goes down. I don't necessarily need to know Ebbs moves, cause the pay for viewer get that, I just want to know how he is doing overall...after the fact, so I can decide whether to subscribe to his program. If he is doing well, then his input is worth considering again. I can't find any up-to-date info on Ebb on a regular basis, and the pay-for-viewer can't tell us how he is doing. I just know that he is farther down in the autotracker than I am, so he must not be doing very well.
After Ben's comments today, then hopefully, the market will settle down and we should have a pretty good idea where it's going for real. Maybe!!! IMO

 

[DrFaustus]

Well, the F-fund may be coming around again ... if it performs today (ie, doesn't go down) and the other US funds go down, that may be an indicator to get in. There's a lot of bad news on the horizon .. Fannie Mae, Sears, etc. The I fund is continuing to go like gangbusters on the *strength* of the weakening US dollar. Man, wish I had gotten into the I-fund back when Craig (crhuss) asked me about it. Would be sitting pretty about now. Oh well ... lessons learned.

That said, I probably need a better set of buy/sell indicators than the ones I am currently using (which are not hard and fast rules). Anyone know of a good book on chart analysis?

Still haven't heard from UpTrend on how to use the website he provided. Guess I am just an idiot on that score. It does look like a great potential resource however.

So I guess I am leaning toward F and I, based on today's performance.

 

[Texan]

Been on the sidelines all month waiting for good time to jump in..only today and tomorrow left to use one of this months IFT transfers. Wish I had jumped in a week ago...

 

[crhuss]

Hey Dan, Don't beat yourself up. Nobody wants to LOSE money in this volatile market. The market is so volatile that it could have gone either way. I didn't jump in either, which suggests that I wasn't convinced either. I'm still a little squeamish from my losses in January. The bigger part of this business is capital preservation, and that trumps a gain in a crazy market any day..IMO. Maybe, after the stocks go down today and if they go down Friday as well, it might be a good time to re-enter the market on Monday.......or not.
The trend is your friend...and the trend in the I fund still looks pretty good with the $ continuing to tank. But that's got to turn around soon to or we will become a third world country, and Canada will be giving us foriegn aid.
Maybe a big toe into the cold water, soon. But until the indicators get better...it's a risky deal at best in stocks or bonds!!! Look at the success EBB was having in the third quarter last year...and look where he is at now. Better to be conservative right now. I have to be, cause since I am retired, I don't have the ability to infuse my account with more new $.
Optionman is doing pretty good right now. He is close to the top and is sharing his ideas more freely. Pretty agressive though. Take a look at his thread and tell me what you think.. Take care, and we will just keep truckin along.

Craig

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Optionman is doing pretty good right now. He is close to the top and is sharing his ideas more freely. Pretty agressive though. Take a look at his thread and tell me what you think.. Take care, and we will just keep truckin along.

Craig

Optionman seems pretty sharp, not to take anything away from him, but he did start tracking on Jan 17th, after the market had already taken a -8.6% hit. I think he may have been in cash anyway, but just to be sure. No offense O-man

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Optionman seems pretty sharp, not to take anything away from him, but he did start tracking on Jan 17th, after the market had already taken a -8.6% hit. I think he may have been in cash anyway, but just to be sure. No offense O-man

Good point. In fact, 7 out of the top 10 posters started posting their moves AFTER the big drop at the beginning of the year.

 

[Tomncath]

Still haven't heard from UpTrend on how to use the website he provided. Guess I am just an idiot on that score. It does look like a great potential resource however.

I posted a rersponse to this question in his thread....

 

[Birchtree]

Being a leader in this type of market ain't no great shakes - fame is so fleating. Just don't befriend the "Cooler".

 

[crhuss]

OK...If we look at the I fund..the long term trend was down since about November 2007. It looks like it hit bottom around February 10 or so and started back up. It has been steadily climbing since then, with only a little fluxuation until yesterday. The delayed reaction from Uncle Ben gave us a pull back yesterday that gave us a chance to maybe find some room to get in and take the elevator up for maybe two days, max. The USD continues to decline, as with the US stocks and bonds, as with the US election, as with the US quality of life. So...if we can find some kind of bright spot in this mess, let's do it.

So if the trend is your friend, then the I fund looks like it is going in a positive direction right now. And, in fact, is the ONLY postive trend out there, besides the eenie weenie G fund......except gold, oil, IBM, etc. But those things we can't pick and chose.

Dan, what do the 10DMA, 20DMA, 50DMA and 200DMA charts indicate. Or have you come up with a different method of analysis yet?

I would like to sneak into the I fund today a little bit...but is there something I am missing...besides our world is falling apart????

But OH NO!!!! Paladin and 12% and Weather Weenie are staying away from the OSM because the USD is soooo over sold!! It's never easy..trying to please everyone. What say you????

ANALYSIS PARALYSIS is setting in, OH NO!!!!!

What do you think for today? No guts...no glory!!! Let me know before noon,OK???

Thanks, Craig

 

[crhuss]

Ok, so I talked myself into it. Right or wrong!!!! Here is my little toe!!

70 G
10 C
20 I

 

[Hallatauer]

For February I came out a basically a wash. Though I was F Fund most of the month, any forays into equities wiped out any possible gains. OK, I'll take it, as opposed to taking a large loss like many of the mechanical investing stratergies have. They still tend to spend too much time in the equity funds during the recent down turn.

I'm going to take a look at the anti-Ebb/contra Ebb moves someone else has been doing and making good returns on. If Ebb rocks during the ups, doing the opposite during the downs makes sense. Well, it makes ense until I use it and then it will suck. heh

 

[DrFaustus]

Sorry ... have been out-of-pocket the last couple of days ... am working really hard trying to get a briefing out the door. I'm still in the G-fund. Since I'm not in the tracker, here is my report card: On 2/29, my YTD return was +0.02%. Am looking to do better in the months that follow ... need to hit that 12% per year if I am to remain on track to reach my goal!

 

[Hallatauer]

YTD I'm down 0.99% Not bad considering the hit I took the first week of January. If I measure my difference from when I stopped following Ebb to the letter, Jan 8th, to Feb 29th, I'm up 5.31%. What a difference that one week makes.