Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[crhuss]

I pretty much broke even in February also. But my January was terrible and I'm still trying to get out of it. I'm down 1.4% on the year...according to the TSP summary of last year's ending balance. I went in yesterday to G, C and I. C was a wash pretty much....The I fund showed closing .29% up and the #$%^&&#* FV fund took it away and showed a .09% loss. The USD was the lowest ever against the EURO yesterday, and the USD fell against most other foriegn currency...so I can't understand why the FV took money away. I thought if the USD fell, then the I fund went up. WHAT GIVES????!!!! How in the world can any one figure this stuff out??
I needed to be in the stocks a little, so I felt like I was doing something...so I went in to 90G, 10 C fund. Not much gain..if it goes up. But not much loss... if it goes down. Plan to stay there until I get some definitive direction to move. If that is a stupid move...please feel free to let me know. I will appreciate any information to help me out.
Hey Hallatauer...what is your plan to make that much since January 8??
Patience to all (I'm talking to myself again).

Craig

 

[tspgo_com]

I pretty much broke even in February also. But my January was terrible and I'm still trying to get out of it. I'm down 1.4% on the year...according to the TSP summary of last year's ending balance. I went in yesterday to G, C and I. C was a wash pretty much....The I fund showed closing .29% up and the #$%^&&#* FV fund took it away and showed a .09% loss. The USD was the lowest ever against the EURO yesterday, and the USD fell against most other foriegn currency...so I can't understand why the FV took money away. I thought if the USD fell, then the I fund went up. WHAT GIVES????!!!! How in the world can any one figure this stuff out??
I needed to be in the stocks a little, so I felt like I was doing something...so I went in to 90G, 10 C fund. Not much gain..if it goes up. But not much loss... if it goes down. Plan to stay there until I get some definitive direction to move. If that is a stupid move...please feel free to let me know. I will appreciate any information to help me out.
Hey Hallatauer...what is your plan to make that much since January 8??
Patience to all (I'm talking to myself again).

Craig

If you are referring to yesterday I think you got it backwards. The I-Fund received 013 FV that came from nowhere. Most likely they will correct the FV today by taking away the 0.13.

This is what the picture looks like for today:

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.48
Today % Change ==>> -0.98%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.26
FV Correction ==>> -0.15
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.11
I-Fund Change ==>> -0.37
12:08:01 PM on 03/04/08

 

[crhuss]

OK, TPSGO COM, help me out here. On 3/3/2008, the EFA (Ifund) chart at the bottom of the TSPtalk home page showed a +0.29% at the end of the day (4pm EST), (as I recall....I've slept since then..so I can't be totally sure). But when Tom posted the 3/3/2008 results on the tsptalk home page later last night..and it showed -0.09. I know that the +0.29% isn't accurate because of the FV, so I looked at the currency exchange website and most of them showed that the USD was lower than the foreign currencies. I went on TSP.gov today 3/4/2008 and looked at the share price for the I fund on 3/2/2008...it showed 22.50. So I looked at the I fund share price for 3/3/2008 and it showed 22.48...a loss of $.02.
So...there is my senario...what did I do wrong?? The EFA chart showed it went up, the TSP.gov list price said it went down.... along with what Tom reported. Did I incorrectly read the chart % yesterday when I looked at it? or what?
I appreciate your help. I just want to understand. Thanks!!

Craig

 

[Hallatauer]

Hey Hallatauer...what is your plan to make that much since January 8??
Patience to all (I'm talking to myself again).

Craig

Tho I had been following Ebb, I felt he was spending waaaay to much time in equities considering the current economic problems. In the time frame from Jan 8 to Feb 29, we've had 37 days to work with. Ebb was in equities 25 of those days, I was in equities just 6 days. Majority of the time in the F Fund and switching to the G to grab the penny when it was expected to be disbursed.

Until the economy shows some news and signs of swinging up, I will remain F/G Fund. The only days I will go equities is if it is contra to Ebb and the markets have had several down days in a row. And it will be a last minute judgment call before noon transfer deadline.

We'll see what we'll see I guess.

 

[tspgo_com]

OK, TPSGO COM, help me out here. On 3/3/2008, the EFA (Ifund) chart at the bottom of the TSPtalk home page showed a +0.29% at the end of the day (4pm EST), (as I recall....I've slept since then..so I can't be totally sure). But when Tom posted the 3/3/2008 results on the tsptalk home page later last night..and it showed -0.09. I know that the +0.29% isn't accurate because of the FV, so I looked at the currency exchange website and most of them showed that the USD was lower than the foreign currencies. I went on TSP.gov today 3/4/2008 and looked at the share price for the I fund on 3/2/2008...it showed 22.50. So I looked at the I fund share price for 3/3/2008 and it showed 22.48...a loss of $.02.
So...there is my senario...what did I do wrong?? The EFA chart showed it went up, the TSP.gov list price said it went down.... along with what Tom reported. Did I incorrectly read the chart % yesterday when I looked at it? or what?
I appreciate your help. I just want to understand. Thanks!!

Craig

The truth is that the EFA is useless for our purpose of determining the I-Fund value. For all practical purposes you should disregard the EFA. It is an EFT and does not reflect the EAFE value. Before 2:30 pm I get the EAFE value from Bloomberg at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EFD:IND#

After 2:30 pm then I get it from MSCI at http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.html

Hope this helps!

 

[crhuss]

Thanks tspgo. I appreciate your knowledge and willingness to share it with the rest of us. I will use those Web sites to help me figure my gain/losses.
Thanks again.

Craig

 

[DrFaustus]

Wow ... looks like we're really getting a bounce today! The S&P is up 1% and the 4500 is up .8% Hope we can hold it. Man, sometimes I wish I were back in my gov't job where I had more time to review market data ... sometimes, like the past two weeks, I hardly have time to review anything once I get to work.

Anyway, I'm still in G. I picked up a book over the weekend: "Getting Started in Chart Patterns" by Thomas Bulkowski. Am hoping it will yield some useful info that will kick start me on my road to millions.

 

[Steadygain]

IMO Barclay's manipulates the FV to keep L Funds performing within a certain range of their targets. They don't care about the I Fund, it's a casualty of FV manipulation to keep L Funds in line.

I'd say your right on this. THANKS - that answers my earlier question

 

[CountryBoy]

I'd say your right on this. THANKS - that answers my earlier question

I may be a cynic, and probably wrong, but truth be known, I feel that Barclays manipulates the FV on the I fund to their benefit and to our detriment. There is to much flexibility to play games with this fund. They know what is going on and the moves we make.

I’ve noticed some of the comments from the some folks I fund Gurus here on the board, that are a lot more knowledgeable on how the FV should be applied and they seem to have some concerns and are surprised by how it has been applied lately. I just don’t trust it, for the time being and will avoid it. I believe Barclays is playing games with this fund. They need to have more oversight on them. I'll get my International exposure on my Roth.

At least with the C and S fund , it's just the normal game playing going on.

CB

 

[airlift]

Many of these problems can be resolved if we join our efforts and keep the pressing for redress. Please give James your support!


http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5162&page=54

 

[DrFaustus]

I agree with all of the sentiments posted thus far. But I heard something distressing on the way into work today. Many years ago, under President Clinton, the gov't was thinking of passing a "1-time" tax on all 401k plans of 15% as a way to balance the budget and continue paying for entitlements. That was defeated but I am given to understand that it is rearing it's ugly head again ... apparently they are going to make another try for it if Obama or Clinton are elected to White House. Scary stuff, man!

 

[Silverbird]

I agree with all of the sentiments posted thus far. But I heard something distressing on the way into work today. Many years ago, under President Clinton, the gov't was thinking of passing a "1-time" tax on all 401k plans of 15% as a way to balance the budget and continue paying for entitlements. That was defeated but I am given to understand that it is rearing it's ugly head again ... apparently they are going to make another try for it if Obama or Clinton are elected to White House. Scary stuff, man!

True, it's scary but I'm more scared of more tax breaks and more government debt. At least the Dems are talking about paying for it, and that leaves room for us to say, NOT on 401K's, instead of ignoring the growing mountain of borrow with bonds that are becoming less and less desireable to China, the petroleum powers, and others who have been buying them up before now.

 

[Steadygain]

True, it's scary but I'm more scared of more tax breaks and more government debt. At least the Dems are talking about paying for it, and that leaves room for us to say, NOT on 401K's, instead of ignoring the growing mountain of borrow with bonds that are becoming less and less desireable to China, the petroleum powers, and others who have been buying them up before now.

On the bright side - the more these central aspects become common knowledge the harder it will be for goverment to ignore. Over the years "the policy" is pointing fingers at one thing or another and trying to convince the masses that "Housing is responsible" - "Oil is responsible" - "The Fed" - AND EVERYONE IS CONVINCED that once the "Bonds" or "Loans" are resolved then EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE. I don't care who it is - but I would welcome anyone to honestly step up to the plate and lay out all the facts. Make it very clear that many changes need to take place and TAX CUTS - "sound good" but only make the problem worse. I would glady pay twice the Taxes if the underlying corruption and problems would disappear and we would end with STONG ECONOMIC STRENGTH. I fully believe we can WE JUST NEED SOMEONE WITH THE BALLS TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.

 

[CountryBoy]

I agree with all of the sentiments posted thus far. But I heard something distressing on the way into work today. Many years ago, under President Clinton, the gov't was thinking of passing a "1-time" tax on all 401k plans of 15% as a way to balance the budget and continue paying for entitlements. That was defeated but I am given to understand that it is rearing it's ugly head again ... apparently they are going to make another try for it if Obama or Clinton are elected to White House. Scary stuff, man!

I heard a little blurb on that also, but it took awhile to register. For those folks that have just started their TSP contributions, but for use nearing retirement, that 15% would amount over at least 4 years worth of retirement funds. I think the idea sucks big .......

But ain't that just like a lib, always reaching their hands into other peoples pockets for money. This will have to be watched closely.

CB

 

[DrFaustus]

I see where TspGo's system has issued a buy signal on the C and S funds. I was thinking about this as well but got stuck in a meeting and got out too late to do anything about it. Maybe its for the best ... I don't know if the markets are going to rebound tomorrow or not since it's Friday. Perhaps Monday ....

 

[crhuss]

Dan, Only tomorrow will tell if your late meeting was a blessing in disguise. I'm not so sure about jumping in right now, though. Everyone seems to be talking about the magic number of 1270 in the S&P. However we are also having a difficult time breaking down below the 1300 mark. Somewhere in that range seems to be the magic number of the bottom. We are at 1304 now. It would seem a shame to be patient all this time and then jump in too soon and losing your gains. With the market definitely trending down in all funds right now (except G fund), I'm definitely in the sit in cash and wait until (as you continually tell me) there is a definite trend up after hitting bottom, and maybe a second bounce!! Trying to figure out this market is crazy!!! But if you look at your gains and where tspgo or 350Z are at, you are miles ahead of them. Check out what the leaders are doing. It looks like today more of them are getting into the market than earlier in the week, but all those that were in the market today lost big time. I just keep thinking ....capital preservation beats the possibility of volatile earnings in a bear market every time!!!
Are there other indicators that suggest going into the market now?? Some of the big hitters think so!!!! Let me know, OK?!!

Craig

 

[Corepuncher]

Just think of it this way...if you have billions to invest and can manipulate the market, you probably get together with your rich buddies and decide when to coordinate a nice little rally, just to draw in the little guys and then rape them of their money.

Maybe that is why you can always count on a good rally when it makes the least sense!

 

[Birchtree]

Corepuncher,

Do you drive a little sports car, too? You sound remotely familiar.

 

[350zCommTech]

But if you look at your gains and where tspgo or 350Z are at, you are miles ahead of them.

Craig

Craig,

What is my YTD? And how does it compare to Dr. Faustus's YTD?

 

[crhuss]

Hi 350Z, According to the autotracker, dated 3/6/2008, your 2008 YTD balance is -0.96. I don't know if that is accurate. I know that the YTD for me on the autotracker is wrong...primarily because I forget to enter my IFTs timely. I am not sure what Dr. Faustus' 2008 YTD figure is exactly. He doesn't use the autotracker...because of the same reasons that my figures are incorrect...at least that is what he told me. I know that around the end of January, Dan posted on his thread that his 2008 YTD was +2.44. I have been following his thread pretty closely (except when I am out of town) and Dan has been pretty conservative during February and since then. The only one that really knows where Dan is at YTD as of today is Dan, and he would have to tell you what his current YTD figures are. I know that you are both ahead of me. The autotracker indicated that you are ranked number 33, and I am ranked number 46. I guess Dan would probably be ranked in the top five or six if he posted to the autotracker. I am still waiting to make up my losses from January.
I check out everyone's thread that is ranked higher than me, because I figure they are smarter than I am with this stuff, so I read your thread every day, along with Dr. Faustus', and others. I think that I am more conservative than most of the rest of you are...but that's because I am retired and what I have is all I've got. So capital preservation is a higher priority for me. But your thread is truely valuable in my decision making process. I hope you didn't get offended with my comment to Dan. I was just sharing my feelings about his suggested move, and why I didn't think that the timing was right. It was just my opinon...with not too much to base it on. Dan is doing really well and he keeps me out of a lot of trouble. We just bounce ideas off one another, as you do with others in your thread.
Anyway...that's why I said what I said to Dan. Sorry if I was wrong...it was just my observation.
Best of luck to you. Take care.

Craig