Dr Faustus's Account Talk

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The worm has turned ...

Getting into the S fund when I did demonstrates the danger of leaping in and out of a rising fund. I got it when the charts showed that the S-fund was beginning an upward leg, only to get out when Bernake spoke and then I tried to get back in again the day afterward. The result of all of that was an overall loss for this (small) uptick in the stock funds.

In the past two days, the markets have tumbled considerably. So I back in the G fund and will wait until the markets show a bottom before I get in, rather than trying to guess where that bottom will be.

But I really hope we see that bottom soon ...
 
Seems I got out of the C/S/I a day late. I caught the rise and the resulting drop. OK, a wash but sitting in the G for the time being. I'm away on vacation next week so thinking I'm going to stay on the sideline where I am until after Prez Day. <sigh>
 
As a longer term oriented investor I could be very content sitting on a $14.99 C fund price for the rest of the year. But I'm also a realist and realize that is not going to happen - we are in a correction of a powerful bull market.
 
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The F-fund took a huge hit yesterday and is now trading around the -1 sigma line on the Bollinger Band. This would be a buying signal if the F-fund weren't trending down, but alas, that's what it appears to be doing. So I wouldn't buy into this fund yet without some clearer signal.

The S-fund may be trying to stage a comeback but the futures today look bad, my guess is that the S-fund is going to retest the lows.

All in all, I think this is a good time to be patient and continue to wait for the market to find a bottom it can respect.
 
Morning Dan. The F fund used to be one of our safe havens. But not after yesterday. I agree that that is not the place to be now. Is there a point where the price in the bond market is just to high and that will keep poeple from buying bonds? It sure seems that the S fund is right to buy (except for the down trend). Tom just posted the Sentiment Survey for Jan 28 to Feb 2, and I noticed that the S fund was up buy over 4 percent. I guess I was asleep at the wheel that week, cause I sure didn't see gains like that during that period. Oh well. I'm still in G fund...trying to be patient. Don't want to lose the meager gains so far this year. I'm still in the hole 1.5% and would like to at least get back to even. I think the G fund motto should be "save a little each month and at the end of the year see how little you have". It doesn't go up very fast. I guess the G fund is better than losing in the other funds. But when you see the kind of gains made by the S fund during that week, even in this volatile market, my patience starts to wane, and I want to be in the market.
Thanks for posting the charts. That and your take on them helps me from making dumb decisions.
Take care.
 
Dr. Faustus,

I liked the discussion here. I left 50 in G and plunged 50 in S. Let`s see what happens! Best wishes.
 
Good Luck you guys. Hopefully you will get a bounce on Monday from what looks like a real down day today. No Guts No Glory!!! Hope it works for you.
 
Dr. F, Looks like you made the right call. I was too chicken and lost out. Gains are looking like .68% today in the S fund. Good move!!! Your gutsy move in this volatile market resulted in a decent gain, given the small increases in the market since January. What do the recent charts look like? Do you think there is still room in the up-trend to get in for Wednesday? Take care,

Craig
 
Thanks, Craig! Is there room in the uptrend for Wednesday? Gosh ... I dunno. Here's the charts:

View attachment 3266 View attachment 3267

In this case, I think the 4th order interpolating polynomial is giving misleading results due to the huge drawdown that we had. The S-fund appears to be headed upward, albeit not as steep as an angle as before. Perhaps that's a good thing as it might signal an end to the days of high volatility.

I'm still in the S-fund (50%), I'll check the markets about 11:30 eastern to see how they're doing. The 20 DMA price is 18.17 .. if we're still above that, then I'll stay in.
 
Holy Hell ... looks like we hit the jackpot! Sure wish I was all in for today!

As of this posting, the Wilshire 4500 is up some 1.3%. Now, the question is ... should I add to my 50% S-fund holdings or no?

I'm inclined to stick my neck out a little further and go 75% S but I think I'll wait a day first. So I'll stay 50 G, 50 S for now ... and see what is happening around 11:30 tomorrow. Hope the rally continues!
 
Rally may have 1 or two days momentum, especially if we do not react badly to a retail sales number. I'm adding more to C today.
 
Hi Dan, got a better feeling about the S fund today also....trend line is up; above the 20DMA; room to grow based on past trading levels; no talking heads to rain on our parade today----So I'm in 50% S fund, 50G. I hope it's not the dumb money moving this AM and the smart money bringing us down later in the day!!! But this is a pretty conservative move anyway and it feels right.
By the way, I received my '2 IFTs a month' letter. But it is so ambiguous that I really don't know what the 'new rules' really are. Is an IFT out of G one move and an IFT back to G another? or what????? And it really didn't indicate when the 2 move rule was suppose to start and when the 'punishment' was going to be imposed. Typical government bull!!!! Take care..let's hope the ride up continues!!!!
 
Well, we couldnt hold the gains in the S fund ... but we ended the day on an uptick, maybe we'll get a rise out of the fund tomorrow.

I still havent received my letter ... maybe they forgot about me! :)
 
So Dan, based on the increase in the S fund today, do you think you will increase your IFT in the s fund tomorrow? What do you think of an IFT in the I fund. It's pretty low right now (lots of room for increase) and has had some pretty good gains lately. The USD seems to be coming back a little.
 
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If the markets continue to do well today, I will most likely rebalance my allocations a bit ... am leaning toward 34 G, 33 C, 33 S based upon the chart data above. But I am going to wail until around 11:30 eastern before making that call.

View attachment 3289

As for the I fund, I don't like it. As you can see by the red line I added to the chart, the I fund appears to still be on a downward trend in spite of it being so low. Also, since the USD is coming back some, this adds some weakness to the I fund as well since it does better with a falling dollar.
 
Thanks Dan. That makes sense to me, too. I made some pretty good money in the I fund last year ( took a beating there too...later part of the year). But the dollar is coming back (it couldn't go much lower) and the C and S funds are on a slow up trend, which could mean a slow gain back to prosperity. Take care...look forward to your 11:30 call.
 
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