Downside Remains Limited

More choppy sideways action and another mixed close. Market chop has eventually given way to rallies during the month January, so I'm beginning to think this market is waiting for a catalyst to move higher once again. We could use some selling pressure, but buying opportunities have been largely pounced on during intraday trading. We TSPers have had little opportunity to get positioned lower; assuming one has any IFTs.

The Greece situation hasn't changed and Portugal is standing by for its time in the spotlight. Market participants seem to be largely bored by the whole thing, but don't be lulled into a sense of complacency. The time will probably come when the market will suddenly be concerned all over again.

Two data points were released today. The latest Chicago PMI came in at 60.2, which was lower than last month's 62.5 reading. Economists were looking for a number closer to 62.8. The Consumer Confidence Index for January dropped to 61.1 from December's 64.8 reading. That too was below estimates.

Let's take a look at the charts:

NAMO-NYMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO remain on sells.

NAHL-NYHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL managed to flip back to buys. Given the low volatility of these signals it's not surprising to see the reading flip back and forth.

TRIN-TRINQ.jpg

TRIN remained on a sell (barely), while TRINQ flipped to a sell (barely). No help here.

BPCOMPQ.png

BPCOMPQ continues to follow that upper bollinger band and remains on a buy.

So the signals remain mixed, which keeps the Seven Sentinels in a buy condition.

There are times when the market just isn't saying much and the past few days has been one of those times.

Tomorrow is the first of February and I'll be interested to see how many sidelined TSPers begin to take positions in the new month. I'm looking for a buying opportunity myself, but I'm not in a hurry to get invested and will exercise some patience in picking my spot.
 
Agreed, patience is warranted heading into the first half of Feb. I think the market is due for a breather and should present better entry points in the coming days/weeks. It was an impressive rally in January though, kudos to those who stayed invested the entire month.
 
China HSBC January PMI at 48.8 vs. 48.7 in Dec

Still showing contraction (<50), and that may affect the markets tomorrow. Asia and Australian markets mixed after the announcement

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-manufacturing-data-show-contradiction-2012-01-31

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-january-official-pmi-unexpectedly-up-to-505-2012-01-31

Seems the Chinese government and HSBC can't get the story straight :D

Also:
Tomorrow is the first of February and I'll be interested to see how many sidelined TSPers begin to take positions in the new month. I'm looking for a buying opportunity myself, but I'm not in a hurry to get invested and will exercise some patience in picking my spot.

I am in no hurry and probably won't decide on an entry until we bottom (probably around 1280-1290) and head up, or we break the current high on strength...
 
I am new here, Where do I find out more about moving my money around like everyone is preparing to do
 
Fran1775;bt4777 said:
I am new here, Where do I find out more about moving my money around like everyone is preparing to do

Hi Fran and welcome to the board. :)

I suggest you do some exploring of the message board to get a feel for the different strategies available in managing your account and to help develop an understanding of markets and market forces. Learning about markets and account management is not a quick study, so give yourself some time and ask questions. There are many folks here who bring a lot of experience and viewpoints to the table.
 
RealMoneyIssues;bt4776 said:
China HSBC January PMI at 48.8 vs. 48.7 in Dec

Still showing contraction (<50), and that may affect the markets tomorrow. Asia and Australian markets mixed after the announcement

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-manufacturing-data-show-contradiction-2012-01-31

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-january-official-pmi-unexpectedly-up-to-505-2012-01-31

Seems the Chinese government and HSBC can't get the story straight :D

Also:


I am in no hurry and probably won't decide on an entry until we bottom (probably around 1280-1290) and head up, or we break the current high on strength...

This afternoon one of the non-major market pundits gave a exit target of 1350 with an expected top of 1370 - 1380. That's if Greece muddles through. If Greece reaches an agreement for another bailout loan, 1425 exit target.

Just throwing that out there, your mileage may vary.

- E
 
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