djlc86 Account Talk

[djlc86]

Will the upward movement ever stop?

So I have a long ways to go until retirement, but I enjoy reading up on the topic. Anybody on here retired and living in PA? I've read that PA doesn't recognize federal exceptions for taking 401(k)/TSP distributions before 59.5 years old (Fed gives exception to folks who put in 30+ years at retired at their MRA)? PA taxes you on your 401(k)/TSP contributions (kind of in the spirit of a ROTH retirement vehicle), but doesn't tax your withdrawals, so it doesn't make sense to me that they would penalize you for withdrawing before 59.5, since they've already got their take upfront, why wouldn't they honor the federal exceptions?

Anyone have any first hand experience in regards to this?

 

[djlc86]

Well back in January I got out of C fund around 2549 on SP500, so I did indeed miss most of the wave up. But I got back in earlier this month when the market dipped a couple days in a row, losing a little over 1% in total, with SP500 sitting at 2706.05, so I have ridden the latest wave up to recoup some gains. The SP500 is definitely up against some strong resistance around the 2800 mark, I'm looking to make a move here soon with the negative seasonality coming into play, I guess I'll play it by ear. I would love to already be in the C or S fund come March (to maximize my use of 2 IFTs), but I might try out the F fund in the coming days.

I was watching CNBC Fast Money yesterday and they had an interesting segment about the last 8 weeks of gains, something along the lines of since 1920 (or whatever date a long time ago close to that) there have only been 13 occasions where over an 8 week period the market has returned 10%+ (a 0.2% chance of occurrence), and that in the weeks that followed this 8 week period the market went down about 2.5% over the next 3 months. So as we all are expecting this rally has to hit exhaustion at some point and experience some sort of pullback or some kind of downward movement at some point.

 

[djlc86]

I stuck it out through the negative seasonality and I did lose a little, but not too much over the last few days in the C. I made an IFT to 100S yesterday before noon (2nd IFT for FEB, so I have 2 full IFTs for March ) but forgot to update the AT until today, so that will be off a little bit.

 

[djlc86]

Went 100% I fund on 3/14, looking to stay here for a little bit. Liking 100% I for April too given its excellent historical performance.

 

[djlc86]

I haven't posted in my thread in a long time. Currently sitting 100% in the S fund. Up 23.28% YTD, slightly lower than what the Autotracker shows (missed an IFT here and there). I missed first 10-12% wave down back in March luckily, but got caught in the 2nd wave down, so I threw all seasonality stuff out the window pretty much and have been sitting either 100C or 100S since then. PIP ending 10/31/2020 shows 17.53%. Hoping market doesn't trend too far down before the end of the year.

 

[nasa1974]

Great job.

Unfortunately I road that March wave down to a minus 30% but have been able to ride back to a positive 16%. Hope the rest of the year we can continue running with the bulls.

 

[djlc86]

May the Bulls run wild a la Jordan and Pippen in the 90s

 

[djlc86]

Well the bulls are continuing to run wild, and I was happy to see that given I was 100S the entirety of November, sold to 100G on Mon Nov 30. Looking for a pullback here, but market continues its strength so far in December. CNN Fear and Greed Index sitting at 87, actually down from 91 last week. I'm looking to get back into market later this month for the Santa rally, but would prefer that happen after a pullback.

 

[nasa1974]

Well the bulls are continuing to run wild, and I was happy to see that given I was 100S the entirety of November, sold to 100G on Mon Nov 30. Looking for a pullback here, but market continues its strength so far in December. CNN Fear and Greed Index sitting at 87, actually down from 91 last week. I'm looking to get back into market later this month for the Santa rally, but would prefer that happen after a pullback.

I did the same thing. Hoping for a little relaxation to the market then get back in. I'm not sure if it's going to happen soon. I want to be back in the "S" fund before they approve the vaccines.

 

[djlc86]

I did the same thing. Hoping for a little relaxation to the market then get back in. I'm not sure if it's going to happen soon. I want to be back in the "S" fund before they approve the vaccines.

Non-Farm Payrolls added less jobs than anticipated, but futures don't even really blink. Tis a strong market, no doubt about that.

 

[nasa1974]

Jumped back in, 100% "S".

 

[djlc86]

Yeah it's tempting to get back in right now that's for sure, everything seems to be trending upward. FOMO is strong within me right now. This past Monday was a decent down day, so maybe the coming Monday will be the same. I'm going to wait it out a few more days I think, hope for a down day or two and maybe jump back in.

 

[djlc86]

I imagine Congress will get a stimulus and funding bill passed before the Dec 11th funding deadline next week, which might get me back into equities a day or two sooner than I was initially planning on. Hoping that negative seasonality starts to kick in a bit next week.

 

[djlc86]

So checking out some market data this morning, the NASDAQ is up 39.54% this year, danggg!! Wouldn't it be nice to have some exposure to that index under the TSP umbrella?!?! In stark contrast, the blue chips under the DJIA are only up 5.37% this year (30,069), so it doesn't look like my beginning of year guess of 32,951 is going to happen unless the DJIA climbs another 9.5% before the end of the year.

 

[djlc86]

The continuing run up of the Small Caps is definitely something to behold....

 

[djlc86]

Pretty volatile market in 2020. I did pretty well overall all things considered. My calculations show a return of 39.27% just slightly off the AutoTracker (personal record). I'm hoping for more of the same in 2021. Best of luck to all of us this year.

I am starting the year out in the F fund, equities aren't the best from a seasonal standpoint in early January.

 

[djlc86]

Well I'm 100% in the F fund now, but got clipped yesterday for that loss, oh well, lots of days left for the year I should have moved to the I fund the week after Christmas, it did pretty well from then up until yesterday. This year, I'm vowing to make the jump to the I fund after the holiday (granted I fund is supposed to change it's mixture at some point).

 

[djlc86]

I'm bringing up the bottom on the AT, yay me - missing out on some nice gains right now sitting in F - tis the seasonality train though - sometimes you win, other times you lose.

 

[djlc86]

Went back to 100S this morning, hoping to catch some gains to get me out of the red and back into the black for the year.

 

[djlc86]

Finally back into positive territory for the year after yesterday, distancing myself from the bottom of the AT, so I'm pleased with that. But man I'm so far behind the S fund right now, it's been on an incredible run, sticking with 100S for the time being.