djlc86 Account Talk

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Up +2.01% in Nov (stayed 75C/25S the entire month), now up +1.02% YTD (AT shows different return because I missed or was late inputting an IFT here and there)

After the strong open yesterday, I'm looking to jump to G at some point this week, wait out the seasonal mid-month lull, and then jump back in for the Santa rally. Obviously everything is market dependent.
 
Well so much for that positive uptick this week, we will be lucky to break even now this week it looks like. I figured maybe there could be a down day but more than 2% geez :)
 
I finally decided to cut my losses and just jumped to G this morning. In a normal market, after a day like today we would probably see a big bounce back day tomorrow, but this isn't a normal market right now. Friday we lost more than 1% and we definitely didn't get a bounce back day today obviously. So yeah, I am down over 8% for the month, in hindsight I wish I would have gotten out sooner.

I still have 1 IFT left for the month, but don't really have any idea when to get back in given the craziness of this market decline. Santa isn't coming this year, I am convinced lol.
 
Santa's a no-show so far, but historically it's not really until the 21st or so that the holiday seasonality kicks in. But yeah, no guarantees this year.

112818z.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Of course the market is rebounding this morning, that's what I was hoping for yesterday. Always a day late and a dollar short. But will it hold? We've seen so much volatility throughout the day lately and big swings and reversals. I don't have much faith it will hold.
 
The negative reversal finally swooping in to take away the gains........maybe I wasn't a day late and a dollar short?!?!
 
Wow talk about an uptick day.....is this the beginning of the ride back up from the bottom? Or is it a temporary relief rally before another ugly downturn? I will definitely be monitoring very closely over the next few days.
 
The TSP Calculator tells me I finished down -7.77% for the year ending 2018 (worst year to date, only my 10th year in TSP), my TSP PIP tells me my last 12 months ending on 12-31-18 resulted in a -7.93% performance.

I just used my 1st IFT of January and in 2019, 100% C at COB today. I am not anticipating this as a long play, hoping for that big bear market type rally tomorrow, if it happens I'll jump back into G for the rest of the month, if not, I'll stick it out and see how things go for the next couple of weeks.
 
djlc86 said:
The TSP Calculator tells me I finished down -7.77% for the year ending 2018 (worst year to date, only my 10th year in TSP), my TSP PIP tells me my last 12 months ending on 12-31-18 resulted in a -7.93% performance.

I just used my 1st IFT of January and in 2019, 100% C at COB today. I am not anticipating this as a long play, hoping for that big bear market type rally tomorrow, if it happens I'll jump back into G for the rest of the month, if not, I'll stick it out and see how things go for the next couple of weeks.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking of staying put in C and S for another day or so. Still wait I g for the bulls to run for a minute to play catch up.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
I think the Fed can only be more dovish at this point. He wouldn't possibly say anything that would make things worse, I would assume? Unless Trump is really pi**ing him off. :) (Not making this political. It may be more personal for Powell.)
 
tsptalk said:
I think the Fed can only be more dovish at this point. He wouldn't possibly say anything that would make things worse, I would assume? Unless Trump is really pi**ing him off. :) (Not making this political. It may be more personal for Powell.)
Click to expand...

Not making this political as well: But Powell could also not care what Trump tweets. :)
 
A big bounce back day so far, markets up over 2% as I write this, but the Fed news conference only minutes away, question is, will it hold? If he strikes a dovish tone, I am hoping for an even bigger surge upward today. Tough to make big gains with only 1 real move this month, considering I was in G to start out the year.
 
A pretty positive Fed news conference this morning. I thought about taking the profits, but wouldn't be able to get back in until Feb, so I am thinking about sticking it out at least for a few more days. US folks meeting with Chinese folks on trade next week, I think we have more upside to go before we see another blip downward. Can we hit 2600 on SP500 before that blip hits?
 
Well, I decided to go from 100C to 100G a few minutes ago. If market holds on the day, I'll be up over 4% for the month, only having spent 2 days in the market. Only another 4% this year and I'll recover my losses from last year :)

I still think we have some upside to go, but didn't want to risk a 4%+ month, they don't grow on trees you know?!?! I hope I am not missing a huge wave up. I still think we will move a little bit lower before another wave back up, at least I hope that's the case. Also, kicking myself for not being 100S lol.
 
SP500 gets down around 2563 early in trading today and is back to around even.....I guess there is no bad news anymore.....throw all the negatives out the window.... ;)
 
Citi....JP Morgan and WF all report somewhat disappointing revenue numbers....JP Morgan largest bank in the country hasn't missed on revenue in 15 quarters.....markets don't care.....irrational I tell you :)
 
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