djlc86 Account Talk

[djlc86]

Welcome to my thread! I don't know that I'll post a lot over here, but you never know! I had a previous thread called 10 down 25 to go (still visible on main forum page).

I'm up 2.7% MTD (60S/40C since July 3rd), starting to give some thought to taking the MTD profits, 3% months don't grow on trees after all. I used 1 IFT already this month to move back into market, so if I move to G fund next week at some point, I'll only have 1 move left to get back in if things go low. Playing it by ear for now.

On a different note, I found a group of folks (on a different website) that like to invest their TSP based on seasonal strategy (using historical data), I understand some months are historically atrocious, like June (mainly flat historically) and August (mainly negative) but to invest solely on historical data seems a little out there, as every year there are different factors in play with the economy and world influences (this year is about trade/tariffs, tax reductions etc). From what I've seen they use calendars with specific dates for moving into specific funds for each month, it seems like this has been successful for the most part for those folks, except for 2018, I have read that strategy hasn't produced much in the way of results this year, but 2018 is a little bit of a unicorn for "normal" market strategy.

I much prefer monitoring the market and making changes based on actual events, I suppose investing based on historical data has its merits though. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

 

[djlc86]

Big day for tech stocks on Monday, with Netflix set to release their numbers on new subscribers, might help me in figuring out whether to stay in or get out.

 

[RazorCat]

What other TSP related websites have you run across? Looking to broaden my horizons.

 

[1965Vintage]

Big day for tech stocks on Monday, with Netflix set to release their numbers on new subscribers, might help me in figuring out whether to stay in or get out.

In my personal Roth IRA I am investing in the Streaming sector lately. I had ROKU from $36 and sold at $48 yesterday. I got out because my gut tells me that no matter what Netflix earnings looks like Monday, it won't be good enough for the market simply because it is up so much in the last 6 months. I am hoping for Netflix to disappoint so my Roku will drop in sympathy and I can get back in cheaper before their earnings August 8. (My target for ROKU is $58 before earnings. Another one I have been looking at is IQ (The Chinese Netflix) They have lockup expiration coming on September 25. That one is due to watch.

As for the Market. I think that $280 wall is going to be hard for the SPY to break. And seasonality is not going to help it. We shall see.

 

[djlc86]

The other site is called TSP Center, it looks to be a fee for service website. They have different seasonal strategies with specific calendars for each strategy.

 

[djlc86]

In my personal Roth IRA I am investing in the Streaming sector lately. I had ROKU from $36 and sold at $48 yesterday. I got out because my gut tells me that no matter what Netflix earnings looks like Monday, it won't be good enough for the market simply because it is up so much in the last 6 months. I am hoping for Netflix to disappoint so my Roku will drop in sympathy and I can get back in cheaper before their earnings August 8. (My target for ROKU is $58 before earnings. Another one I have been looking at is IQ (The Chinese Netflix) They have lockup expiration coming on September 25. That one is due to watch.

As for the Market. I think that $280 wall is going to be hard for the SPY to break. And seasonality is not going to help it. We shall see.

Yeah I think you make a good point on the market expectations surrounding Netflix (and other major players in the Tech sector in general) earnings.

 

[djlc86]

I just made the IFT to 100% G (sitting at 2.84% MTD, missed 1st trading day of July), hoping for a positive day on the market to up my profit for the month. I got out on the wrong date last month, in hindsight I should have just stayed in, as it would have been better return wise. So this month, I'm getting out while the getting is good, historically, I believe the 2nd half of July isn't as good as the first half of July, at least in terms of the C fund (SP500).

I have 1 IFT left to get back in, so if we see another -1% day, I might jump back in.

 

[djlc86]

I finished July up 3.24% (went G on 7/18), I'm back in the market effective today, sitting at 60C/40S, given the C performed so well last month in comparison to the S, I'm hoping for a little bit more of the same, obviously past performance doesn't dictate future results.

For the year I'm ~+5.75%, didn't start tracking and trying out the swing trading thing until early June. I'm about 0.6% behind the C fund and just over 2% behind the S fund on the year (at least those are the numbers per my TSP Calc spreadsheet). I know August is historically pretty awful, but let's hope for the opposite this year.

 

[djlc86]

Well August 14th - about halfway through the month C fund not out performing the S fund, dang it. Should have gone 40/60 C/S, oh well, still a positive month so far, I'm liking the upswing today (so far, let's hope it holds for the most part) after 4 consecutive down days.

 

[djlc86]

Seems like a busy week ahead, with Fed minutes from last meeting being released on Wednesday, trade talks with China/Mexico ongoing, Fed meeting in Jackson Hole later this week, more quarterly figures coming in from some big names (Estee Lauder, Target, Lowes, Foot Locker, GAP, TJX, Toll Brothers, etc.), trying to stay put in the market thru end of August to give myself 2 full moves in September, we'll see how it goes; let's see what happens tomorrow, if we see big uptick early in the AM, maybe a move to G will happen.

 

[djlc86]

Moving to 100%G effective COB 8/21/18, with current returns as they currently are sitting I'll be around +2.4% on the month, pretty good for the month of August. The S&P500 facing resistance around the 2870 mark, I'm expecting some downward movement before going back up and over that mark. Who knows I could be wrong about that.

 

[djlc86]

Well, just over a week after moving to the G fund, and I'm not liking my move lol. The S&P500 didn't face as much resistance as I thought it would at 2870, will there be any resistance at the 2900 level? Before moving to the G fund, I kept asking myself, should I move or just stick it out to give myself 2 full moves in September? Guess I should have stuck it out (barring a total downward collapse in the next few days), you win some, you lose some. The DWCPF (S fund) had been facing a lot of resistance at the 10% YTD figure and has blown right through that now soaring to over 12% YTD at what seems like the drop of a hat. You never know what to expect with the market.

 

[djlc86]

I finished August with a measly 2.51% return (which really isn't so measly I guess), gains are gains. Let's hope September is similar to August in that it bucks the historical trend of being a bad month (mid-term elections be damned). It seems like 2018 is shaping up to be a pretty dang good year TSP return wise.

 

[djlc86]

Well September wasn't anything like August, I was too heavily weighted in the S fund last month (ended the month down 0.75%, my auto tracker was off 1 day), I have 2 full IFTs available this month, currently sitting 65S/35C, which doesn't appear to be a winning formula right now, as the S fund continues on a downward trend, hoping for a bounce back day for the S fund, I'd prefer to get some gains before using my 1st IFT of the month, but if the S continues downward, at some point, I have to cut losses and re-balance from S to C.

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm in the same boat...

 

[nasa1974]

I am in the "S" fund and September was not kind.

 

[Mcqlives]

Man you guys are brave! The divergence between S and C made me nervous enough I bailed to G back in August and have been on lily pad since. My regret is that I didn't go to C back then. But even if I had I would probably have gone to G a week or 2 ago. But then again I am short timing enough to be seriously looking at conserving my gains at this point.

 

[djlc86]

Well October was a brutal month, I finished down -8.85%, putting me -1.74% down YTD (about 10% down from YTD peak). I'm currently sitting 75C/25S, S fund has more climbing to do than the C fund, so maybe at some point I'll rebalance, but we'll play it by ear, I have 2 IFTs in play this month.

I don't even want to look at the PIP ending 10/31/18

 

[djlc86]

Man you guys are brave! The divergence between S and C made me nervous enough I bailed to G back in August and have been on lily pad since. My regret is that I didn't go to C back then. But even if I had I would probably have gone to G a week or 2 ago. But then again I am short timing enough to be seriously looking at conserving my gains at this point.

I hope you stuck it out in G fund last month. I wish I was as smart as you were.

 

[Mcqlives]

Smart!?!? More lucky than that for sure. I have been trying to see indicators and stick with intermediate term plans. Sort of like DBA does just not as fancy.
I did stay out till we closed above 2700 on the snp. That was my confirmation up after 2600 was one of likely floors. I went 50c/50s then. I have a current potential ceiling at 2870ish but this could change with the China news.