crws's Account Talk

[crws]

This game isn't fun anymore...
I'm taking what's left of my toys and getting out of the rain. This OPEX is a looooser and this time the longs will get burned

 

[Gumby]

This game isn't fun anymore...
I'm taking what's left of my toys and getting out of the rain. This OPEX is a looooser and this time the longs will get burned

Don't count the PPT out yet.

 

[crws]

Don't count the PPT out yet.

Well, thanks for the wörd,
I saw that there will be a call to get that QE rolling sooner than later, but my attitude has soured and we are ramping down into a poor retail environment until Oct reporting for the back to school season. I don't think that bodes well for equities no matter what QE the Fed does, it will only push the dollar higher and create more ST bond security, and IMO investors will eat it up, no matter the yield.

Smear some political rancor on top over the next few months and you have the makings of a runny sheet sandwich.
This is my first time ever bailing to F as a earnings vehicle.
Did I mention I'm irritated at the direction this country is headed?

 

[crws]

In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/business/22invest.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
By GRAHAM BOWLEY
Published: August 21, 2010
Renewed economic uncertainty is testing Americans’ generation-long love affair with the stock market.

Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.

If that pace continues, more money will be pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked.

Small investors are “losing their appetite for risk,” a Credit Suisse analyst, Doug Cliggott, said in a report to investors on Friday.

 

[Warrenlm]

"Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion "

I thought we had replaced "billion" with "trillion" to qualify for the term "staggering". And we are on our way to "gazillion".

 

[crws]

"Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion "

I thought we had replaced "billion" with "trillion" to qualify for the term "staggering". And we are on our way to "gazillion".

Secrets Out! Prepare the floodgates! Let the stampede ensue!
I start staggering after 3b eers.

 

[crws]

Something to keep your mind from developing swiss cheese type protein structure...oh wait, stem cell research is canceled.

Oh well, the color's eye-catching
Ford picks Portland to launch 14-city electric-vehicle tour
Published: Tuesday, August 24, 2010, 5:55 PM Updated: Tuesday, August 24, 2010, 8:58 PM
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2010/08/ford_picks_portland_to_launch.html

 

[crws]

Wieden and Kennedy are awesome.
The guys that conceived this commercial are 20-somethings out of the box thinkers. I love it. Congrats.

Wieden+Kennedy wins an Emmy for Old Spice commercial
Published: Monday, August 23, 2010, 3:40 PM
http://www.oregonlive.com/movies/index.ssf/2010/08/wieden_kennedy_wins_an_emmy_fo.html#incart_hbx

Dan Wieden, the agency's co-founder and global executive creative director, said in the release: "I love the fact that the Emmy is a winged woman representing the arts,
who is lifting an atom that represents the sciences. Great advertising has two components as well. It not only entertains, but can dramatically change behavior.
This Old Spice work did just that."
18 million views...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owGykVbfgUE

 

[crws]

IMO we have some downside to go before we turn it around.

Secular Bull and Bear Markets
August 1, 2010 corrected monthly update.
http://dshort.com/articles/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Or is there more downside to come?
Without crystal ball, we simply don't know.

One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our sense of the range of possibilities.
An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted chart of the S&P Composite
is the pattern of long-term alternations between up- and down-trends.
Market historians call these "secular" bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum
"long period of time" (in contrast to aeternus "eternal" — the type of bull market we fantasize about).

 

[KevinD]

Nice chart. Thanks.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

hi CRWS,

since I see, like me, you're a fan of <1% stratedgy, you do realize that though your daily statement may say you have 2.00% in any fund, you may actually have 2.00005%, (determined by dividing that fund dollar amt by total account dollar amount) allowing you to round up to 3.00%? The reverse is true also. That 2.00% on statement may really only be 1.99999%.

 

[crws]

hi CRWS,

since I see, like me, you're a fan of <1% stratedgy, you do realize that though your daily statement may say you have 2.00% in any fund, you may actually have 2.00005%, (determined by dividing that fund dollar amt by total account dollar amount) allowing you to round up to 3.00%? The reverse is true also. That 2.00% on statement may really only be 1.99999%.

Thanks for pointing that out.
I knew there was a fine line, but never calculated it for myself.
Cheers-

 

[crws]

A little RT placing the blame where it lies:

Bernanke bad for US, Fed head's plan kills recovery

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_KbQ99d6Uc

 

[Boghie]

CRWS,

You are probably a bit right to blame Bernanke a little for the downturn in 2007. But not for anything recent.

His speech - which boosted the markets till the day trading dolts actually read it and study it - is the start of a process of defending the dollar. He took a risk with his Quantitative Easing – he risked inflation to beat deflation. He probably hoped any Federal Government ‘stimulus’ would be restrained and targeted. Instead, he has to deal with a Federal Government that compounded the problem of inflation while accomplishing little in long term economic productivity enhancement. Instead of using stimulus money to rebuild infrastructure much of it was spent on welfare and boondoggles.
Bernanke's job is to defend the dollar.

• Not to guarantee peace and harmony.
• Not to guarantee constant prosperity for day traders.
• Not to guarantee welfare benefits for a growing welfare class.
• Not to guarantee 96 months of Bush deficits accrued in just 19 months.

All that yak about paying back all this borrowing with inflated dollars is crappolla. Bernanke cannot be fired. He has another four years on this term. He is independent of Congress and the President. He will do the right thing and ensure your 401(k) {TSP} holdings are not inflated to zip.

You will hate him now.

Love him later.

 

[WorkFE]

APPLAUSE

 

[crws]

[*]

• Not to guarantee 96 months of Bush deficits accrued in just 19 months.

oh man, you are gonna make me get out my rebuttal.
First off, (prior to demonstration) here is an addition to the picture

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/01/26-0
Published on Monday, January 26, 2009 by CommonDreams.org
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years
by Thom Hartmann

This weekend, House Republican leader John Boehner played out the role of Jude Wanniski on NBC's "Meet The Press."

Odds are you've never heard of Jude, but without him Reagan never would have become a "successful" president, Republicans never would have taken control of the House or Senate, Bill Clinton never would have been impeached, and neither George Bush would have been president.

When Barry Goldwater went down to ignominious defeat in 1964, most Republicans felt doomed (among them the then-28-year-old Wanniski). Goldwater himself, although uncomfortable with the rising religious right within his own party and the calls for more intrusion in people's bedrooms, was a diehard fan of Herbert Hoover's economic worldview.

In Hoover's world (and virtually all the Republicans since reconstruction with the exception of Teddy Roosevelt), market fundamentalism was a virtual religion. Economists from Ludwig von Mises to Friedrich Hayek to Milton Friedman had preached that government could only make a mess of things economic, and the world of finance should be left to the Big Boys – the Masters of the Universe, as they sometimes called themselves – who ruled Wall Street and international finance.

 

[Boghie]

oh man, you are gonna make me get out my rebuttal.
First off, (prior to demonstration) here is an addition to the picture

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/01/26-0
Published on Monday, January 26, 2009 by CommonDreams.org
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years
by Thom Hartmann

Our new Santa has just spent $2.2 Trillion more than he brought in.

Tomorrow is September 1, and the tax code changes scheduled for January 1, 2011 are still in force. Santa needs cash from the rich and poor alike. Santa wants to dig a little in your pockets.

So Santa becomes Scrooge.

And, the Bond Vigilantes will be wetting their lips...

Watch Kalefornea. We are the hint you should be looking at...

Black Swans will take flight. So many it could very well look like a Black Blizzard...

 

[crws]

my Goodwill to eBay conversion account had a 377% gain this week -so far.
Invested: $54.00
Sold $204.00

LOL

that is a tax-free gain, I might add!

 

[crws]

That nagging F fund.
Like a fire that just won't go out.
WWSS (What would Smokey say?)

 

[crws]

http://downloads.cbn.com/cbnnewsplayer/cbnplayer.swf?aid=17933

'Islamization' of Paris a Warning to the West
PARIS - Friday in Paris. A hidden camera shows streets blocked by huge crowds of Muslim worshippers and enforced by a private security force.

This is all illegal in France: the public worship, the blocked streets, and the private security. But the police have been ordered not to intervene.
http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2010/August/Islamization-of-Paris-a-Warning-to-the-West/