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crws's Account Talk
- Thread starter KevinD
- Start date
crws
Active member
Next up:
Recession smack down ala small business
(dramatized for enthusiasm)
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/running_small_business/archives/2010/07/senate_clears_way_for_30_billion_small_business_fund.html
Senate Clears Way for $30 Billion Small Business Fund
Posted by: John Tozzi on July 23, 2010
Washington is poised to launch its most direct attempt to revive small business lending since the financial crisis with a plan to invest up to $30 billion of federal money in small banks and give them incentives to re-lend that money to Main Street companies.
The Small Business Lending Fund, outlined by President Obama in his State of the Union speech six months ago, cleared a key Senate vote to end debate July 22 as two Republicans broke with their caucus to support the measure.
The full bill, which includes business tax breaks and enhancements to Small Business Administration loan programs, could come to a vote as soon as July 27, according to Richard Carbo, spokesman for the Senate Committee on Small Business. The House passed a version June 18.
The fund would invest in small banks—those with less than $10 billion in assets—by purchasing preferred stock, which would pay the government a dividend of 5 percent. The cost of that money would decrease to a dividend as small as 1 percent if banks boost their small business loans over 2009 levels by 10 percent. For banks that do not increase their small business lending, the capital would become more expensive, with the dividend rising to 7 percent.
Bank lending to small businesses has dropped to $670 billion from $710 billion since 2008, according to data filed with regulators. Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have connected the drop in small business credit to weak job growth and urged banks to increase the flow of loans to creditworthy businesses. “The formation and growth of small businesses depends critically on access to credit,” Bernanke told a forum on small business July 12. “Unfortunately, those businesses report that credit conditions remain very difficult.”
Analysts like Raj Date question whether the money will be effective, however. Date, a former managing director at Deutsche Bank who now runs the Washington research group Cambridge Winter Center, calls the program “well-intentioned” but says it won’t work as well as lawmakers claim. While the bill’s authors say the $30 billion in federal money invested in banks would spur $300 billion in private lending to businesses, Date estimates that the Small Business Lending Fund would support only $70 billion in new credit. Banks will use most of the money to cover losses on existing commercial real estate loans, he says.
Republicans opposed the measure on the grounds that it mirrors the Troubled Asset Relief Program and “injects capital into banks with no guarantees they will actually lend,” according to a policy statement. Senate Small Business Committee Chair Mary Landrieu (D-La.) said in a statement that the bill has strong protections for taxpayer money and is expected to raise $1.1 billion in dividend income over 10 years.
The bill includes other provisions intended to aid small businesses such as $11.7 billion in tax breaks on things like investing in new equipment or the sale of small business stock. The SBA provisions would increase the limits on government-guaranteed loans to $5 million from $2 million, and extend the reduced fees and higher guarantees passed last year in the stimulus bill.
The law would also allow self-employed workers to fully write off their health insurance costs in 2010.
Recession smack down ala small business
(dramatized for enthusiasm)
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/running_small_business/archives/2010/07/senate_clears_way_for_30_billion_small_business_fund.html
Senate Clears Way for $30 Billion Small Business Fund
Posted by: John Tozzi on July 23, 2010
Washington is poised to launch its most direct attempt to revive small business lending since the financial crisis with a plan to invest up to $30 billion of federal money in small banks and give them incentives to re-lend that money to Main Street companies.
The Small Business Lending Fund, outlined by President Obama in his State of the Union speech six months ago, cleared a key Senate vote to end debate July 22 as two Republicans broke with their caucus to support the measure.
The full bill, which includes business tax breaks and enhancements to Small Business Administration loan programs, could come to a vote as soon as July 27, according to Richard Carbo, spokesman for the Senate Committee on Small Business. The House passed a version June 18.
The fund would invest in small banks—those with less than $10 billion in assets—by purchasing preferred stock, which would pay the government a dividend of 5 percent. The cost of that money would decrease to a dividend as small as 1 percent if banks boost their small business loans over 2009 levels by 10 percent. For banks that do not increase their small business lending, the capital would become more expensive, with the dividend rising to 7 percent.
Bank lending to small businesses has dropped to $670 billion from $710 billion since 2008, according to data filed with regulators. Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have connected the drop in small business credit to weak job growth and urged banks to increase the flow of loans to creditworthy businesses. “The formation and growth of small businesses depends critically on access to credit,” Bernanke told a forum on small business July 12. “Unfortunately, those businesses report that credit conditions remain very difficult.”
Analysts like Raj Date question whether the money will be effective, however. Date, a former managing director at Deutsche Bank who now runs the Washington research group Cambridge Winter Center, calls the program “well-intentioned” but says it won’t work as well as lawmakers claim. While the bill’s authors say the $30 billion in federal money invested in banks would spur $300 billion in private lending to businesses, Date estimates that the Small Business Lending Fund would support only $70 billion in new credit. Banks will use most of the money to cover losses on existing commercial real estate loans, he says.
Republicans opposed the measure on the grounds that it mirrors the Troubled Asset Relief Program and “injects capital into banks with no guarantees they will actually lend,” according to a policy statement. Senate Small Business Committee Chair Mary Landrieu (D-La.) said in a statement that the bill has strong protections for taxpayer money and is expected to raise $1.1 billion in dividend income over 10 years.
The bill includes other provisions intended to aid small businesses such as $11.7 billion in tax breaks on things like investing in new equipment or the sale of small business stock. The SBA provisions would increase the limits on government-guaranteed loans to $5 million from $2 million, and extend the reduced fees and higher guarantees passed last year in the stimulus bill.
The law would also allow self-employed workers to fully write off their health insurance costs in 2010.
crws
Active member
I did this most recent CA 2 days ago and it was applied Friday COB.
Now that I have established a balance in all TSP funds, I will re-allocate my contribution before next payroll.
Using the >1% IFT, I successfully entered a 6.73% move out of G into an increased equity position.
As these balances fluctuate depending on daily market performance and multiple IFT's, I will aim to distribute their individual percentage share of my total TSP to a point of equilibrium and then will need less maintenance.
I still maintain my 2 major monthly moves, as well as a bailout to G, which will be of last resort, as I now have a wide variety of funds with redundant degrees of exposure to adjust.
Now that I have established a balance in all TSP funds, I will re-allocate my contribution before next payroll.
Using the >1% IFT, I successfully entered a 6.73% move out of G into an increased equity position.
As these balances fluctuate depending on daily market performance and multiple IFT's, I will aim to distribute their individual percentage share of my total TSP to a point of equilibrium and then will need less maintenance.
I still maintain my 2 major monthly moves, as well as a bailout to G, which will be of last resort, as I now have a wide variety of funds with redundant degrees of exposure to adjust.
Last edited:
crws
Active member
Some interesting articles from the UK paper, The Independent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/stark-warning-of-second-recession-in-uk-next-year-2036879.html
Stark warning of second recession in UK next year
By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
George Osborne's emergency Budget has increased the chances of the British economy experiencing a second recession next year.
The country's longest-established economic think tank, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research,
says today that the chances of output falling next year have risen from about one in seven to a fifth,
as result of the tough measures the Chancellor announced on 22 June.
And the probability of two successive quarters of negative growth in 2011 – the technical definition of a recession –
is now running at slightly more than a fifth, uncomfortably high for ministers anxious to show that cuts in public
spending will "crowd in" private sector investment and job creation.
The NIESR adds that living standards will not return to pre-crisis levels before 2015, and that house prices, allowing for inflation, will decline over the course of this Parliament.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-unable-to-account-for-billions-of-iraq-oil-money-2036925.html
US unable to account for billions of Iraq oil money
By Patrick Cockburn
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
The US defence department is unable to account for almost $9bn taken from Iraqi oil revenues for use in reconstruction,
according to an official audit released yesterday.
The report by the US Special Investigator for Iraq Reconstruction says $8.7bn (£5.6bn) out of $9.1bn withdrawn between
2004 and 2007 from a special account set up by the UN Security Council is unaccounted for.
This is separate from $53bn set aside by Congress for Iraqi reconstruction.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-us-town-that-outsourced-everything-2036929.html
The US town that outsourced everything
The authorities in Maywood decided on a drastic approach to their budget deficit – sack every municipal worker
By Guy Adams
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
When two uniformed police officers approached Hector Hernandez as he arrived at the City of Maywood's official Fourth of July celebrations,
he feared the worst. The stocky 22-year-old – whose neck tattoo of a Playboy bunny indicates membership of one of the area's notorious Latino street gangs –
hasn't exactly relished his previous interactions with the local forces of law and order.
Imagine Hector's surprise, then, when the uniformed men held out an outstretched hand, smiled and asked how he was doing.
"They said they were new to the neighbourhood, so wanted to say hello and welcome me to the event. I think they even told me to have a nice day," he recalls.
"I was like: 'You guys don't normally speak to me unless you're kneeling on my back'. I thought it was some kind of a sting."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/why-even-prison-cant-stop-mexicos-brutal-drug-lords-2036202.html
Why even prison can't stop Mexico's brutal drug lords
The gang had the perfect alibi when their rivals were gunned down – they were in jail.
But they weren't – the guards had let them out, and even lent them their guns
By Guy Adams
Tuesday, 27 July 2010
It was a messy business, clearing-up after the carload of masked gunmen who burst into the function room at a suburban hotel in the city of Torreon
in northern Mexico last Saturday night and began randomly spraying bullets into a crowded dance floor full of young men and women.
A total of 17 people were killed and dozens more injured in the apparently indiscriminate attack, which lasted two minutes and, according to witnesses,
was carried out by four suspects, who fired 120 bullets at revellers attending a birthday party organised via Facebook.
Yet when detectives began picking through the blood-stained evidence left behind after the latest atrocity in a drug-related crime wave
which Mexico's government estimates has killed 25,000 people in the past five years,
they made a discovery that turned an ordinarily grisly massacre into something astonishing.
Forensic examinations of the bullet casings found on the function suite's floor revealed that they had all been fired from one of four AR-15 assault rifles
which were supposed to belong to guards at a prison in the neighbouring state of Durango.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/exclusive-the-unseen-photographs-that-throw-new-light-on-the-first-world-war-1688443.html
Exclusive: The unseen photographs that throw new light on the First World War
A treasure trove of First World War photographs was discovered recently in France.
Published here for the first time, they show British soldiers on their way to the Somme.
But who took them? And who were these Tommies marching off to die?
By John Lichfield
Friday, 22 May 2009
The place, according to a jokingly chalked board, is "somewhere in France". The time is the winter of 1915 and the spring and summer of 1916.
Hundreds of thousands of British and Empire soldiers, are preparing for The Big Push, the biggest British offensive of the 1914-18 war to date.
A local French photographer, almost certainly an amateur, possibly a farmer, has offered to take pictures for a few francs.
Soldiers have queued to have a photograph taken to send back to their anxious but proud families in Britain or Australia or New Zealand.
Sometimes, the Tommies are snapped individually in front of the same battered door or in a pear and apple orchard.
Sometimes they are photographed on horseback or in groups of comrades.
A pretty six-year-old girl – the photographer's daughter? –
occasionally stands with the soldiers or sits on their knees: a reminder of their families, of human tenderness and of a time when there was no war.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/stark-warning-of-second-recession-in-uk-next-year-2036879.html
Stark warning of second recession in UK next year
By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
George Osborne's emergency Budget has increased the chances of the British economy experiencing a second recession next year.
The country's longest-established economic think tank, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research,
says today that the chances of output falling next year have risen from about one in seven to a fifth,
as result of the tough measures the Chancellor announced on 22 June.
And the probability of two successive quarters of negative growth in 2011 – the technical definition of a recession –
is now running at slightly more than a fifth, uncomfortably high for ministers anxious to show that cuts in public
spending will "crowd in" private sector investment and job creation.
The NIESR adds that living standards will not return to pre-crisis levels before 2015, and that house prices, allowing for inflation, will decline over the course of this Parliament.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-unable-to-account-for-billions-of-iraq-oil-money-2036925.html
US unable to account for billions of Iraq oil money
By Patrick Cockburn
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
The US defence department is unable to account for almost $9bn taken from Iraqi oil revenues for use in reconstruction,
according to an official audit released yesterday.
The report by the US Special Investigator for Iraq Reconstruction says $8.7bn (£5.6bn) out of $9.1bn withdrawn between
2004 and 2007 from a special account set up by the UN Security Council is unaccounted for.
This is separate from $53bn set aside by Congress for Iraqi reconstruction.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-us-town-that-outsourced-everything-2036929.html
The US town that outsourced everything
The authorities in Maywood decided on a drastic approach to their budget deficit – sack every municipal worker
By Guy Adams
Wednesday, 28 July 2010
When two uniformed police officers approached Hector Hernandez as he arrived at the City of Maywood's official Fourth of July celebrations,
he feared the worst. The stocky 22-year-old – whose neck tattoo of a Playboy bunny indicates membership of one of the area's notorious Latino street gangs –
hasn't exactly relished his previous interactions with the local forces of law and order.
Imagine Hector's surprise, then, when the uniformed men held out an outstretched hand, smiled and asked how he was doing.
"They said they were new to the neighbourhood, so wanted to say hello and welcome me to the event. I think they even told me to have a nice day," he recalls.
"I was like: 'You guys don't normally speak to me unless you're kneeling on my back'. I thought it was some kind of a sting."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/why-even-prison-cant-stop-mexicos-brutal-drug-lords-2036202.html
Why even prison can't stop Mexico's brutal drug lords
The gang had the perfect alibi when their rivals were gunned down – they were in jail.
But they weren't – the guards had let them out, and even lent them their guns
By Guy Adams
Tuesday, 27 July 2010
It was a messy business, clearing-up after the carload of masked gunmen who burst into the function room at a suburban hotel in the city of Torreon
in northern Mexico last Saturday night and began randomly spraying bullets into a crowded dance floor full of young men and women.
A total of 17 people were killed and dozens more injured in the apparently indiscriminate attack, which lasted two minutes and, according to witnesses,
was carried out by four suspects, who fired 120 bullets at revellers attending a birthday party organised via Facebook.
Yet when detectives began picking through the blood-stained evidence left behind after the latest atrocity in a drug-related crime wave
which Mexico's government estimates has killed 25,000 people in the past five years,
they made a discovery that turned an ordinarily grisly massacre into something astonishing.
Forensic examinations of the bullet casings found on the function suite's floor revealed that they had all been fired from one of four AR-15 assault rifles
which were supposed to belong to guards at a prison in the neighbouring state of Durango.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/exclusive-the-unseen-photographs-that-throw-new-light-on-the-first-world-war-1688443.html
Exclusive: The unseen photographs that throw new light on the First World War
A treasure trove of First World War photographs was discovered recently in France.
Published here for the first time, they show British soldiers on their way to the Somme.
But who took them? And who were these Tommies marching off to die?
By John Lichfield
Friday, 22 May 2009
The place, according to a jokingly chalked board, is "somewhere in France". The time is the winter of 1915 and the spring and summer of 1916.
Hundreds of thousands of British and Empire soldiers, are preparing for The Big Push, the biggest British offensive of the 1914-18 war to date.
A local French photographer, almost certainly an amateur, possibly a farmer, has offered to take pictures for a few francs.
Soldiers have queued to have a photograph taken to send back to their anxious but proud families in Britain or Australia or New Zealand.
Sometimes, the Tommies are snapped individually in front of the same battered door or in a pear and apple orchard.
Sometimes they are photographed on horseback or in groups of comrades.
A pretty six-year-old girl – the photographer's daughter? –
occasionally stands with the soldiers or sits on their knees: a reminder of their families, of human tenderness and of a time when there was no war.
Last edited:
crws
Active member
can't bypass this, hopefully it will be amended to include hemp:
http://www.insidebayarea.com/top-stories/ci_15613765
Oakland to allow large-scale marijuana production
By Angela Woodall
Oakland Tribune
Posted: 07/27/2010 11:36:59 AM PDT
Updated: 07/27/2010 08:38:16 PM PDT
OAKLAND — It's official: Oakland is set to become the first city to allow large-scale pot growing for medical use —
and the standard-setter for the lucrative and largely uncharted territory of industrial-scale medical marijuana production.
Support Tuesday morning among the City Council, which met to finalize the proposal, was not unanimous.
Councilmembers Nancy Nadel and Jane Brunner abstained despite weeks of drawn-out discussion about the plan.
But support among the eight-member council was unanimous for laying the groundwork for labor, environmental and product safety standards.
It's better to iron out the details now than have to send something back and "start from square one,"
Councilmember Pat Kernighan said during the last meeting before the council's summer recess.
Some of the standards, including fire safety, were included in the original proposals for large-scale medical marijuana growing.
The pot businesses would be limited to industrial areas in West and East Oakland, spanning four council districts.
Under the new plans, bidders would have to meet guidelines for reducing electrical use, greenhouse gas
emissions and pesticide use in order to obtain one of four permits that will be available.
http://www.insidebayarea.com/top-stories/ci_15613765
Oakland to allow large-scale marijuana production
By Angela Woodall
Oakland Tribune
Posted: 07/27/2010 11:36:59 AM PDT
Updated: 07/27/2010 08:38:16 PM PDT
OAKLAND — It's official: Oakland is set to become the first city to allow large-scale pot growing for medical use —
and the standard-setter for the lucrative and largely uncharted territory of industrial-scale medical marijuana production.
Support Tuesday morning among the City Council, which met to finalize the proposal, was not unanimous.
Councilmembers Nancy Nadel and Jane Brunner abstained despite weeks of drawn-out discussion about the plan.
But support among the eight-member council was unanimous for laying the groundwork for labor, environmental and product safety standards.
It's better to iron out the details now than have to send something back and "start from square one,"
Councilmember Pat Kernighan said during the last meeting before the council's summer recess.
Some of the standards, including fire safety, were included in the original proposals for large-scale medical marijuana growing.
The pot businesses would be limited to industrial areas in West and East Oakland, spanning four council districts.
Under the new plans, bidders would have to meet guidelines for reducing electrical use, greenhouse gas
emissions and pesticide use in order to obtain one of four permits that will be available.
crws
Active member
Biding my time until 7/31 when I can submit an IFT reflective of a bigger share in US equities, primarily S Fund.
However, as much as I am concerned about the bond bubble, I am leaning towards increasing my share of F to near 20%, because I think wave 1 of baby boomers have their assets parked there and that's where they will leave them for the ST/MT future. (especially after Divot's perspective)
So, for the ST, the options as I see them narrow down to win/loose with all bets on 1 fund (or primarily 1), or capital conservation with a defensive strategy in a balanced spread.
At any rate, I will be all in, S majority for the 9 day OPEX runup, as I think earnings season has stoked the fires of optimistic targets.
Start COB 8/6, then scale back COB 8/19 to review prospects for the rest of the month.
Ahh, the dawg days of summer.
However, as much as I am concerned about the bond bubble, I am leaning towards increasing my share of F to near 20%, because I think wave 1 of baby boomers have their assets parked there and that's where they will leave them for the ST/MT future. (especially after Divot's perspective)
So, for the ST, the options as I see them narrow down to win/loose with all bets on 1 fund (or primarily 1), or capital conservation with a defensive strategy in a balanced spread.
At any rate, I will be all in, S majority for the 9 day OPEX runup, as I think earnings season has stoked the fires of optimistic targets.
Start COB 8/6, then scale back COB 8/19 to review prospects for the rest of the month.
Ahh, the dawg days of summer.
crws
Active member
Good news
go corning!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/1962-glass-could-be-Cornings-apf-978849301.html?x=0
1962 glass could be Corning's next bonanza seller
Sturdy Corning glass from 1962 could be a multibillion winner in frameless TV market
Ben Dobbin, AP Business Writer, On Sunday August 1, 2010, 2:14 pm EDT
CORNING, N.Y. (AP) -- An ultra-strong glass that has been looking for a purpose since its invention in 1962 is poised to become a multibillion-dollar bonanza for Corning Inc.
The 159-year-old glass pioneer is ramping up production of what it calls Gorilla glass, expecting it to be the hot new face of touch-screen tablets and high-end TVs.
Gorilla showed early promise in the '60s, but failed to find a commercial use, so it's been biding its time in a hilltop research lab for almost a half-century. It picked up its first customer in 2008 and has quickly become a $170 million a year business as a protective layer over the screens of 40 million-plus cell phones and other mobile devices.
Now, the latest trend in TVs could catapult it to a billion-dollar business: Frameless flat-screens that could be mistaken for chic glass artwork on a living-room wall.
Because Gorilla is very hard to break, dent or scratch, Corning is betting it will be the glass of choice as TV-set manufacturers dispense with protective rims or bezels for their sets, in search of an elegant look.
Gorilla is two to three times stronger than chemically strengthened versions of ordinary soda-lime glass, even when just half as thick, company scientists say. Its strength also means Gorilla can be thinner than a dime, saving on weight and shipping costs.
go corning!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/1962-glass-could-be-Cornings-apf-978849301.html?x=0
1962 glass could be Corning's next bonanza seller
Sturdy Corning glass from 1962 could be a multibillion winner in frameless TV market
Ben Dobbin, AP Business Writer, On Sunday August 1, 2010, 2:14 pm EDT
CORNING, N.Y. (AP) -- An ultra-strong glass that has been looking for a purpose since its invention in 1962 is poised to become a multibillion-dollar bonanza for Corning Inc.
The 159-year-old glass pioneer is ramping up production of what it calls Gorilla glass, expecting it to be the hot new face of touch-screen tablets and high-end TVs.
Gorilla showed early promise in the '60s, but failed to find a commercial use, so it's been biding its time in a hilltop research lab for almost a half-century. It picked up its first customer in 2008 and has quickly become a $170 million a year business as a protective layer over the screens of 40 million-plus cell phones and other mobile devices.
Now, the latest trend in TVs could catapult it to a billion-dollar business: Frameless flat-screens that could be mistaken for chic glass artwork on a living-room wall.
Because Gorilla is very hard to break, dent or scratch, Corning is betting it will be the glass of choice as TV-set manufacturers dispense with protective rims or bezels for their sets, in search of an elegant look.
Gorilla is two to three times stronger than chemically strengthened versions of ordinary soda-lime glass, even when just half as thick, company scientists say. Its strength also means Gorilla can be thinner than a dime, saving on weight and shipping costs.
crws
Active member
FWIW...
No time like the present
Commentary: August historically has been surprisingly good for stocks
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/august-is-a-good-month-for-stocks-2010-08-01
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The early bird gets the worm.
That turns out to be true not only of robins in springtime. It also appears to be the case for those few traders who stay at work during August, thereby bucking the mass exodus of the rest of Wall Street for the Hamptons.
In fact, August over the past century has been one of the better months of the calendar for the stock market, while September has been the worst. If you want to make an equity bet on the long side, therefore, the odds are more in your favor if you place that bet during August -- rather than waiting until the entire trading community is back at their desks in September.
Consider the monthly average gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 10,640, +174.53, +1.67%) since the benchmark's inception in 1896:
Month Average DJIA gain since 1896
No time like the present
Commentary: August historically has been surprisingly good for stocks
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/august-is-a-good-month-for-stocks-2010-08-01
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The early bird gets the worm.
That turns out to be true not only of robins in springtime. It also appears to be the case for those few traders who stay at work during August, thereby bucking the mass exodus of the rest of Wall Street for the Hamptons.
In fact, August over the past century has been one of the better months of the calendar for the stock market, while September has been the worst. If you want to make an equity bet on the long side, therefore, the odds are more in your favor if you place that bet during August -- rather than waiting until the entire trading community is back at their desks in September.
Consider the monthly average gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 10,640, +174.53, +1.67%) since the benchmark's inception in 1896:
Month Average DJIA gain since 1896
- January +0.9%
- February -0.3%
- March +0.8%
- April +1.2%
- May 0%
- June +0.2%
- July +1.4%
- August +1.3%
- September -1.2%
- October +0.2%
- November +0.9%
- December +1.4%
crws
Active member
crws
Active member
Right on, JBL gets a media outlet
Audio equipment co. founder Harman to buy Newsweek
Post Co. selling Newsweek to Sidney Harman, founder of audio equipment maker
Andrew Vanacore, AP Business Writer, On Monday August 2, 2010, 6:38 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- Sidney Harman, the 91-year-old founder of audio equipment maker Harman International Industries Inc., has agreed to buy Newsweek, ending a nearly half-century chapter for the magazine as part of The Washington Post Co.
Jon Meacham, the magazine's top editor since 2006, will step down.
Newsweek has been struggling to find a profitable niche amid poor economic conditions and a flood of online competition. Declines in circulation and advertising led to a nearly $30 million loss in 2009, and Newsweek expects to lose money again this year.
In an interview, Harman declined to discuss exactly how he will finance the magazine's operations. But he said he will give Newsweek some breathing room for a turnaround effort.
"My purpose is to get the magazine operating in a reasonable amount of time -- and that's years, not weeks -- on its own fuel," he said.
Audio equipment co. founder Harman to buy Newsweek
Post Co. selling Newsweek to Sidney Harman, founder of audio equipment maker
Andrew Vanacore, AP Business Writer, On Monday August 2, 2010, 6:38 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- Sidney Harman, the 91-year-old founder of audio equipment maker Harman International Industries Inc., has agreed to buy Newsweek, ending a nearly half-century chapter for the magazine as part of The Washington Post Co.
Jon Meacham, the magazine's top editor since 2006, will step down.
Newsweek has been struggling to find a profitable niche amid poor economic conditions and a flood of online competition. Declines in circulation and advertising led to a nearly $30 million loss in 2009, and Newsweek expects to lose money again this year.
In an interview, Harman declined to discuss exactly how he will finance the magazine's operations. But he said he will give Newsweek some breathing room for a turnaround effort.
"My purpose is to get the magazine operating in a reasonable amount of time -- and that's years, not weeks -- on its own fuel," he said.
crws
Active member
Insurance is big money. Insurance... sounds so reassuring... not like derivative- which sounds so... devious.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whos-buying-all-those-sp-500-put-options-2010-08-02?link=kiosk
Who's buying all those S&P 500 put options?
Commentary: An ideal time for a hedged strategy
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) -- Traders are paying huge premiums for Standard & Poor's 500 Index options expiring in September, October and November.
It is not unusual to see traders worry about what might happen to the market in the typically nasty September-October time frame, but this year, they're really getting carried away.
We can see, in mathematical terms, how much they're paying by looking at the implied volatilities of the S&P 500 options expiring in various months. These data show up in the prices of the CBOE Volatility Index futures.
The premiums on the VIX futures are huge -- some of the highest readings in history. Table 1 shows the term structure, using closing prices of July 20. All seven months are included in Table 1, so that you can see how the term structure is constructed at this time. There is a healthy premium in August options (over 4 points). But the premiums are extremely large for September and October. After that, the remaining months are rather flat -- nearly the same price as October.
So the term structure rises extremely sharply from August through October, and then flattens out. If you consider what is causing this, it is traders paying up for SPX options expiring from September through November (the underlying "entity" for August VIX futures, for example, is the strip of SPX options expiring in September).
Obviously, those who are paying up for SPX options are likely buying puts and are worried about what might happen this year in the fall -- typically the worst time of the year for equity prices. Last year, there was something similar, but the premiums did not reach these heights.
Not only does the term structure have this steep upward slope now, but it has been retaining it for a few weeks now -- regardless of whether the stock market (SPX) rises or falls.
Strategy/speculation
From a strategy viewpoint, there are some conclusions that we can draw. First of all, when the term structure is this steep, historically, it typically comes at the end of a strong stock-market rally. That is, it is an indication that the market is overbought. Usually, the market then pulls back, and the term structure flattens out. The current heights were reached when SPX had a strong bullish run at the beginning of July, taking it to the 1,100 level. Since then, it has been unable to punch through 1,100, but it hasn't pulled back much either.
There is some precedent for this. Note that the current differential between VIX and the highest futures price is about 9 points. That's the highest/steepest on record (there were bigger futures discounts in the fall of 2008, but there have never been larger futures premiums). Two other times this year, the term structure became very steep. The first was in mid-January, when the differential between VIX and the highest futures price reached about 7 points. A severe market decline of 100 SPX points (intraday) followed very quickly thereafter. The second was in late April, when the differential reached 8 points at its steepest. SPX soon followed with a drop of 180 points.
So the steepness of the term structure is a short-term negative for stock-market outlook, if these precedents hold up. One can't take such data as "gospel," though, because each market is a bit different. For example, if the current premiums are strictly being caused by knee-jerk protective strategies because the fall of the year is approaching, rather than being caused by "smart money" buying protection near a market top, then the ramifications are different.
In any case, one strategy would be to buy SPX puts, figuring that the term structure is predicting at least a short-term market decline.
A less speculative strategy can be established as well. We have often written in the past about the hedged strategy of buying VIX puts and simultaneously buying SPY puts as a hedge. This is an ideal time for that hedged strategy.
The advantage of buying, say, September VIX puts is that the huge 6.87 point differential between VIX and the Sept VIX futures will have to disappear by September VIX expiration (in eight weeks). Remember that the Sept VIX puts are priced off of the futures, not off of VIX. So, if that 6.87 differential shrinks by the September futures falling from their current price near 31 to the current VIX price near 24, those puts would profit handsomely.
The problem, though, is that eight weeks is a long time, and we don't know where VIX might go in the interim. For example, if VIX rose to 31 over that time period, while the September futures remained unchanged, the differential would also shrink to zero, but your September VIX puts wouldn't have appreciated at all since September VIX futures were unchanged. The way to hedge that risk is to buy puts on the broad market -- SPX puts or SPY (the SPX exchange-traded fund) puts. In this way, if VIX does rise to meet the futures, surely the stock market would be falling, and the SPY puts would appreciate in value.
The ratio of how many VIX puts to buy and how many SPY puts to buy changes at different volatility levels. But, if one buys slightly in-the-money puts on both VIX and SPY, then a ratio of 5 VIX puts to 3 SPY puts is the proper one at the current time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whos-buying-all-those-sp-500-put-options-2010-08-02?link=kiosk
Who's buying all those S&P 500 put options?
Commentary: An ideal time for a hedged strategy
By Lawrence G. McMillan
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) -- Traders are paying huge premiums for Standard & Poor's 500 Index options expiring in September, October and November.
It is not unusual to see traders worry about what might happen to the market in the typically nasty September-October time frame, but this year, they're really getting carried away.
We can see, in mathematical terms, how much they're paying by looking at the implied volatilities of the S&P 500 options expiring in various months. These data show up in the prices of the CBOE Volatility Index futures.
The premiums on the VIX futures are huge -- some of the highest readings in history. Table 1 shows the term structure, using closing prices of July 20. All seven months are included in Table 1, so that you can see how the term structure is constructed at this time. There is a healthy premium in August options (over 4 points). But the premiums are extremely large for September and October. After that, the remaining months are rather flat -- nearly the same price as October.
So the term structure rises extremely sharply from August through October, and then flattens out. If you consider what is causing this, it is traders paying up for SPX options expiring from September through November (the underlying "entity" for August VIX futures, for example, is the strip of SPX options expiring in September).
Obviously, those who are paying up for SPX options are likely buying puts and are worried about what might happen this year in the fall -- typically the worst time of the year for equity prices. Last year, there was something similar, but the premiums did not reach these heights.
Not only does the term structure have this steep upward slope now, but it has been retaining it for a few weeks now -- regardless of whether the stock market (SPX) rises or falls.
Strategy/speculation
From a strategy viewpoint, there are some conclusions that we can draw. First of all, when the term structure is this steep, historically, it typically comes at the end of a strong stock-market rally. That is, it is an indication that the market is overbought. Usually, the market then pulls back, and the term structure flattens out. The current heights were reached when SPX had a strong bullish run at the beginning of July, taking it to the 1,100 level. Since then, it has been unable to punch through 1,100, but it hasn't pulled back much either.
There is some precedent for this. Note that the current differential between VIX and the highest futures price is about 9 points. That's the highest/steepest on record (there were bigger futures discounts in the fall of 2008, but there have never been larger futures premiums). Two other times this year, the term structure became very steep. The first was in mid-January, when the differential between VIX and the highest futures price reached about 7 points. A severe market decline of 100 SPX points (intraday) followed very quickly thereafter. The second was in late April, when the differential reached 8 points at its steepest. SPX soon followed with a drop of 180 points.
So the steepness of the term structure is a short-term negative for stock-market outlook, if these precedents hold up. One can't take such data as "gospel," though, because each market is a bit different. For example, if the current premiums are strictly being caused by knee-jerk protective strategies because the fall of the year is approaching, rather than being caused by "smart money" buying protection near a market top, then the ramifications are different.
In any case, one strategy would be to buy SPX puts, figuring that the term structure is predicting at least a short-term market decline.
A less speculative strategy can be established as well. We have often written in the past about the hedged strategy of buying VIX puts and simultaneously buying SPY puts as a hedge. This is an ideal time for that hedged strategy.
The advantage of buying, say, September VIX puts is that the huge 6.87 point differential between VIX and the Sept VIX futures will have to disappear by September VIX expiration (in eight weeks). Remember that the Sept VIX puts are priced off of the futures, not off of VIX. So, if that 6.87 differential shrinks by the September futures falling from their current price near 31 to the current VIX price near 24, those puts would profit handsomely.
The problem, though, is that eight weeks is a long time, and we don't know where VIX might go in the interim. For example, if VIX rose to 31 over that time period, while the September futures remained unchanged, the differential would also shrink to zero, but your September VIX puts wouldn't have appreciated at all since September VIX futures were unchanged. The way to hedge that risk is to buy puts on the broad market -- SPX puts or SPY (the SPX exchange-traded fund) puts. In this way, if VIX does rise to meet the futures, surely the stock market would be falling, and the SPY puts would appreciate in value.
The ratio of how many VIX puts to buy and how many SPY puts to buy changes at different volatility levels. But, if one buys slightly in-the-money puts on both VIX and SPY, then a ratio of 5 VIX puts to 3 SPY puts is the proper one at the current time.
crws
Active member
This one is for James, who usually has Snopes on quick draw! 
http://www.snopes.com/glurge/fortune.asp
(clip)
Fortunate Sons
Claim: Essay details the sad fates of rich and powerful men from 1923.
Status: Mixture of accurate and inaccurate information.
[Restaurant menu, 1950s]
Just what is success?
In 1923, a group of the world's most successful financiers met at the Edgewater Beach Hotel in Chicago. These tycoons were extremely rich & altogether they controlled more wealth than there was in the US Treasury. Their success stories were published everywhere inspiring many to follow their fine examples. Just look at who they were:
1. Arthur Cutten - The greatest wheat speculator.
2. Albert Fall - The Secretary of Interior in President Harding's cabinet.
3. Leon Fraser - The president of the Bank of International Settlements.
4. Howard Hopson - The president of the largest gas company.
5. Ivar Kreuger - Head of the world's greatest monopoly.
6. Jesse Livermore - The greatest bear in Wall Street.
7. Charles Schwan - The president of the largest independent steel company.
8. Richard Whitney - The president of the New York Stock Exchange.
But 27 years later in 1948, this was what happened to them:
1. Arthur Cutten died abroad insolvent.
2. The penniless Albert Fall was pardoned from prison so that he could die at home.
3. Leon Fraser commited suicide.
4. Howard Hopson was insane.
5. Ivar Kreuger commited suicide.
6. Jesse Livermore commited suicide.
7. Charles Schwan was bankrupt & had to live on borrowed money the last 5 years of his life before his death.
8. Richard Whitney was recently released from Sing Sing Prison.
Origins: This is a vintage piece of glurge, one which appears to have been in continuous circulation since at least 1948.
Over
the years it has been through a variety of alterations, with names being added and dropped from the list, the fates of the various men changing in severity, and different morals being tacked onto the end. In modern versions many of the names are have become so distorted through mistranscription to be almost unrecognizable.
The introductory section about all these men meeting at Chicago's Edgewater Beach Hotel in 1923 appears to be apocryphal: newspapers from 1923 make no mention of such a meeting nor suggest any event that could plausibly have brought so many prominent men from several diverse industries to Chicago all at the same time. Also, as noted below, some of the entries are anachronistic in that they list men who did not yet hold the positions ascribed to them in 1923. After sifting through stacks and stacks of dusty old newspapers, we managed to assemble capsule biographies of the men listed in all the variations of this piece we've collected so far:
http://www.snopes.com/glurge/fortune.asp
(clip)
Fortunate Sons
Claim: Essay details the sad fates of rich and powerful men from 1923.
Status: Mixture of accurate and inaccurate information.
[Restaurant menu, 1950s]
Just what is success?
In 1923, a group of the world's most successful financiers met at the Edgewater Beach Hotel in Chicago. These tycoons were extremely rich & altogether they controlled more wealth than there was in the US Treasury. Their success stories were published everywhere inspiring many to follow their fine examples. Just look at who they were:
1. Arthur Cutten - The greatest wheat speculator.
2. Albert Fall - The Secretary of Interior in President Harding's cabinet.
3. Leon Fraser - The president of the Bank of International Settlements.
4. Howard Hopson - The president of the largest gas company.
5. Ivar Kreuger - Head of the world's greatest monopoly.
6. Jesse Livermore - The greatest bear in Wall Street.
7. Charles Schwan - The president of the largest independent steel company.
8. Richard Whitney - The president of the New York Stock Exchange.
But 27 years later in 1948, this was what happened to them:
1. Arthur Cutten died abroad insolvent.
2. The penniless Albert Fall was pardoned from prison so that he could die at home.
3. Leon Fraser commited suicide.
4. Howard Hopson was insane.
5. Ivar Kreuger commited suicide.
6. Jesse Livermore commited suicide.
7. Charles Schwan was bankrupt & had to live on borrowed money the last 5 years of his life before his death.
8. Richard Whitney was recently released from Sing Sing Prison.
Origins: This is a vintage piece of glurge, one which appears to have been in continuous circulation since at least 1948.
Over
the years it has been through a variety of alterations, with names being added and dropped from the list, the fates of the various men changing in severity, and different morals being tacked onto the end. In modern versions many of the names are have become so distorted through mistranscription to be almost unrecognizable.
The introductory section about all these men meeting at Chicago's Edgewater Beach Hotel in 1923 appears to be apocryphal: newspapers from 1923 make no mention of such a meeting nor suggest any event that could plausibly have brought so many prominent men from several diverse industries to Chicago all at the same time. Also, as noted below, some of the entries are anachronistic in that they list men who did not yet hold the positions ascribed to them in 1923. After sifting through stacks and stacks of dusty old newspapers, we managed to assemble capsule biographies of the men listed in all the variations of this piece we've collected so far:
Last edited:
crws
Active member
Well, well, well...
btw... it's 250k net, correct? Looking at the home page survey results, it would appear a lot of workers are making BIG bucks!
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3036
Critics Still Wrong on What’s Driving Deficits in Coming Years
Economic Downturn, Financial Rescues, and Bush-Era Policies Drive the Numbers
Some critics continue to assert that President George W. Bush’s policies bear little responsibility for the deficits the nation faces over the coming decade — that, instead, the new policies of President Barack Obama and the 111th Congress are to blame. Most recently, a Heritage Foundation paper downplayed the role of Bush-era policies (for more on that paper, see p. 4). Nevertheless, the fact remains: Together with the economic downturn, the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain virtually the entire deficit over the next ten years (see Figure 1).
The deficit for fiscal year 2009 was $1.4 trillion and, at nearly 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was the largest deficit relative to the size of the economy since the end of World War II. If current policies are continued without changes, deficits will likely approach those figures in 2010 and remain near $1 trillion a year for the next decade.
The events and policies that have pushed deficits to these high levels in the near term, however, were largely outside the new Administration’s control. If not for the tax cuts enacted during the presidency of George W. Bush that Congress did not pay for, the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were initiated during that period, and the effects of the worst economic slump since the Great Depression (including the cost of steps necessary to combat it), we would not be facing these huge deficits in the near term.
While President Obama inherited a dismal fiscal legacy, that does not diminish his responsibility to propose policies to address our fiscal imbalance and put the weight of his office behind them. Although policymakers should not tighten fiscal policy in the near term while the economy remains fragile, they and the nation at large must come to grips with the nation’s long-term deficit problem. But we should not mistake the causes of our predicament.
btw... it's 250k net, correct? Looking at the home page survey results, it would appear a lot of workers are making BIG bucks!
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3036
Critics Still Wrong on What’s Driving Deficits in Coming Years
Economic Downturn, Financial Rescues, and Bush-Era Policies Drive the Numbers
Some critics continue to assert that President George W. Bush’s policies bear little responsibility for the deficits the nation faces over the coming decade — that, instead, the new policies of President Barack Obama and the 111th Congress are to blame. Most recently, a Heritage Foundation paper downplayed the role of Bush-era policies (for more on that paper, see p. 4). Nevertheless, the fact remains: Together with the economic downturn, the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain virtually the entire deficit over the next ten years (see Figure 1).
The deficit for fiscal year 2009 was $1.4 trillion and, at nearly 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was the largest deficit relative to the size of the economy since the end of World War II. If current policies are continued without changes, deficits will likely approach those figures in 2010 and remain near $1 trillion a year for the next decade.
The events and policies that have pushed deficits to these high levels in the near term, however, were largely outside the new Administration’s control. If not for the tax cuts enacted during the presidency of George W. Bush that Congress did not pay for, the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were initiated during that period, and the effects of the worst economic slump since the Great Depression (including the cost of steps necessary to combat it), we would not be facing these huge deficits in the near term.
While President Obama inherited a dismal fiscal legacy, that does not diminish his responsibility to propose policies to address our fiscal imbalance and put the weight of his office behind them. Although policymakers should not tighten fiscal policy in the near term while the economy remains fragile, they and the nation at large must come to grips with the nation’s long-term deficit problem. But we should not mistake the causes of our predicament.
Last edited:
jdphx
Member
I pulled this chart over from I I's thread so as to not hijack his space...
So I understand perfectly, are you charting this THROUGH opex day, or would
the way to trade this go something like.... buy in 7-9 days prior and sell
cob opex day?
My question being out COB of that Friday, or COB the Thursday before?
Interesting chart for sure! Thanks for sharing...
So I understand perfectly, are you charting this THROUGH opex day, or would
the way to trade this go something like.... buy in 7-9 days prior and sell
cob opex day?
My question being out COB of that Friday, or COB the Thursday before?
Interesting chart for sure! Thanks for sharing...
Well, keep in mind I am certainly not a chart artist, but here is what I meant... the week +/- runup prior to OPEX Day 2009-2010. The arrow represents OPEX Day.
Looks trade-able to me. What do you think? Don't know if I will have time this week, but if someone pulls the net gain/loss of trading in the markets the 9 days or 1 week before OPEX, then out until the next 9 days or 1 week prior, what return would you have over this timeframe? This chart is by week. This approach would fit within our IFT limitations.
I think this is the trend RuffRyder was to trying to identify before he fell off the face of the earth.....
PS... just an observation- 3 out of the 4 Red weeks in 2009 essentially washed, for minimal gain loss.
So out of 19 weeks, 14 were up substantially, 3 washed, and 2 lost.
For me, the washed weeks are winners, so with that in mind, that makes it 89% probability of a win over 1.75 years and the crash.
crws
Active member
I'm going to crunch the numbers some more, but don't have much time to do so this week.
I would like to add total gain over this period to see what it worked out.
Initially, and quite arbitrarily, I might add- I picked to enter 9 trading days ahead of OPEX, then exit COB Thursday, the day before OPEX.
Now, I haven't fully backtested this, but considering the market and how protection has become big business, it looks promising.
So- i.e. - take this months OPEX, which is Friday, 8/20.
The spreadsheet data is based on an entry point of COB 8/06, and an exit on COB 8/19.
I would welcome some help on a history of net return compilation for the last 3 to 4 years with this method.
I uploaded an excel sheet back through 2006 (below) based on this data: http://poliwogs.com/pictures/DJIA.1900-2010.xls
The date range has not been fully optimized, and would need further breakdown by scenario. I just picked 9 days, as it seemed the market made it's move before OPEX week arrived.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=8406&showpost&p=280063
I would like to add total gain over this period to see what it worked out.
Initially, and quite arbitrarily, I might add- I picked to enter 9 trading days ahead of OPEX, then exit COB Thursday, the day before OPEX.
Now, I haven't fully backtested this, but considering the market and how protection has become big business, it looks promising.
So- i.e. - take this months OPEX, which is Friday, 8/20.
The spreadsheet data is based on an entry point of COB 8/06, and an exit on COB 8/19.
I would welcome some help on a history of net return compilation for the last 3 to 4 years with this method.
I uploaded an excel sheet back through 2006 (below) based on this data: http://poliwogs.com/pictures/DJIA.1900-2010.xls
The date range has not been fully optimized, and would need further breakdown by scenario. I just picked 9 days, as it seemed the market made it's move before OPEX week arrived.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=8406&showpost&p=280063
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