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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!crws's Account Talk
- Thread starter KevinD
- Start date
JimmyJoe
Member
crws said, "I'm going to crunch the numbers some more, but don't have much time to do so this week.
I would like to add total gain over this period to see what it worked out.
Initially, and quite arbitrarily, I might add- I picked to enter 9 trading days ahead of OPEX, then exit COB Thursday, the day before OPEX.
Now, I haven't fully backtested this, but considering the market and how protection has become big business, it looks promising
.
So- i.e. - take this months OPEX, which is Friday, 8/20.
The spreadsheet data is based on an entry point of COB 8/06, and an exit on COB 8/19."
I've looked at it from another side. And yes I want to get back in the market. Looking at the TSP.gov website I reviewed the indiv funds performance bar charts. Looking at this year's performance I've noted that a previous months highest bar does not show a negative performance for a following month (except for the S fund) So, since July was so good, I've IFT'd F 40, C 30, S 10, I 20. (I could change this around a little before 12 noon est.) I am playing 'not to lose' as opposed to 'wining' so I hope, coupled with crws' comments about how the marked looks 'promising', that the remainder of this month will be positive. I could use the dough.
I'll also say that Sept and Oct could be down months, so August may be the last money maker for a while.Last edited:
crws
Active member
gotta love those PIMCO opinions
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/09/business/economy/09rates.html?src=busln
Investor Appetite for Bonds in a Tepid Recovery Weighs on Rates
William H. Gross, a managing director at Pimco, the giant bond fund manager, said the jobs report strengthened his argument that the economy and the job market would remain weak for the next few years. He calls his unhappy situation “the new normal” for the American economy.
“Currently, financial markets have accepted this thesis, the best evidence of which is the two-year Treasury yield at 0.50 percent,” Mr. Gross said in an e-mail. “If investors expected the Fed to raise rates at any time in the next two years, the yield would be much higher.”
Like Mr. McCarthy, Mr. Gross expects the federal policy makers to consider other steps, besides lowering rates directly, to try to revive growth. The Fed, for its part, will probably keep the fed funds rate at 0.25 percent for two to three years, he said.
Goldman Sachs economists said in a research note on Friday that they, too, think the Fed will respond to the weak jobs market with another round of unconventional easing. “These measures could involve more asset purchases — probably Treasury securities,” the economists wrote. Those purchases could total at least $1 trillion, they said.
Lower and lower rates may eventually encourage corporations to invest the big stockpiles of cash in plants and equipment. That, in turn, could lead to new jobs. But if companies instead sit on their hands, waiting for sure signs of an economic revival, basement-level rates may not do much to spur the economy. The latter, Mr. Gross said, amounts to “waiting for an economic Godot.”
But even if companies do not regain their nerve, bond investors will profit, since bond prices will keep climbing.
The bond crowd has done much better than stock investors lately. Since early May, the price of 10-year Treasuries has jumped about 6 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, by contrast, has fallen about 4.3 percent in that time.
crws
Active member
I want one -and locally made! Might have to drop in and ask for a tour...
http://www.popsci.com/cars/gallery/2010-06/gallery-motorcycle
crws
Active member
I wrote about the "Road Train" as a theory, in an entrance essay for the Alternative Energy curriculum at Evergreen State College circa 1995- Cool.
Volvo Initiative Aims to Guarantee Fatality-Free Cars By 2020
http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2010-08/future-cars-may-be-fatality-free
By 2020, "nobody shall be seriously injured or killed in a new Volvo," according to the carmaker's Vision 2020 program. Volvo and other automakers are hoping a confluence of technology will make cars safer and potentially fatality-free, Computer World reports.
Some of the technology already exists, such as sensing capabilities that let cars park themselves.
As part of its Vision 2020 program, Volvo will start testing "road trains" early next year, in which cars will use adaptive cruise controls to maintain a set distance from each other. Road trains will take advantage of existing automated systems for maintaining distance, accelerating and decelerating, according to Volvo.
crws
Active member
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/health/research/10spinal.html
Spinal-Fluid Test Is Found to Predict Alzheimer’s
By GINA KOLATA
Published: August 9, 2010
Researchers report that a spinal fluid test can be 100 percent accurate in identifying patients with significant memory loss who are on their way to developing Alzheimer’s disease.
Although there has been increasing evidence of the value of this and other tests in finding signs of Alzheimer’s, the study, which will appear Tuesday in the Archives of Neurology, shows how accurate they can be. The new result is one of a number of remarkable recent findings about Alzheimer’s.
After decades when nothing much seemed to be happening, when this progressive brain disease seemed untreatable and when its diagnosis could be confirmed only at autopsy, the field has suddenly woken up.
Alzheimer’s, medical experts now agree, starts a decade or more before people have symptoms. And by the time there are symptoms, it may be too late to save the brain. So the hope is to find good ways to identify people who are getting the disease, and use those people as subjects in studies to see how long it takes for symptoms to occur and in studies of drugs that may slow or stop the disease.
Researchers are finding simple and accurate ways to detect Alzheimer’s long before there are definite symptoms. In addition to spinal fluid tests they also have new PET scans of the brain that show the telltale amyloid plaques that are a unique feature of the disease. And they are testing hundreds of new drugs that, they hope, might change the course of the relentless brain cell death that robs people of their memories and abilities to think and reason.
crws
Active member
Too Late!! :laugh:
crws
Active member
Paul is usually good for an uplifting read....NOT
However, the point is: if we don't get solutions based soon, we'll be doing the jobs the Chinese don't want to do....
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/reagan-insider-gop-destroyed-us-economy-2010-08-10
Reagan insider: 'GOP destroyed U.S. economy'
Commentary: How: Gold. Tax cuts. Debts. Wars. Fat Cats. Class gap. No fiscal discipline
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "How my G.O.P. destroyed the U.S. economy." Yes, that is exactly what David Stockman, President Ronald Reagan's director of the Office of Management and Budget, wrote in a recent New York Times op-ed piece, "Four Deformations of the Apocalypse."
Get it? Not "destroying." The GOP has already "destroyed" the U.S. economy, setting up an "American Apocalypse."
Yes, Stockman is equally damning of the Democrats' Keynesian policies. But what this indictment by a party insider -- someone so close to the development of the Reaganomics ideology -- says about America, helps all of us better understand how America's toxic partisan-politics "holy war" is destroying not just the economy and capitalism, but the America dream. And unless this war stops soon, both parties will succeed in their collective death wish.
But why focus on Stockman's message? It's already lost in the 24/7 news cycle. Why? We need some introspection. Ask yourself: How did the great nation of America lose its moral compass and drift so far off course, to where our very survival is threatened?
JimmyJoe
Member
Did you write this crws? If you did you are right on. But I don't think there is any hope for the average joe. I think we're just above average with our stock option. Here's what I think. I think that those we love will be relying on us for a long time to come. It is up to us to make a much as we can with tsp to help them along.
crws
Active member
Well, at least Haagen Daaz's parent company is having a stellar year!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nestle-makes-5B-halfyear-apf-3063527787.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Nestle beats expectations with $5 billion half-year profit, raises outlook
Frank Jordans, Associated Press Writer, On Wednesday August 11, 2010, 7:06 am EDT
GENEVA (AP) -- Swiss food and drinks company Nestle SA reported Wednesday a 7.5 percent rise in half-year net profit to 5.45 billion Swiss francs ($5 billion) and raised its full-year outlook as global sales increased despite adverse currency exchange rates.
The results from the maker of Nescafe, Jenny Craig and Haagen-Dazs beat analyst expectations and compared with a 5.1 billion francs profit a year earlier. Sales rose to 55 billion francs during the six month period to June from 52 billion francs.
Nestle now expects its core food and drinks business excluding currencies effects and one-off events to grow 5 percent, an improvement on its previous forecast of over 3.9 percent.
crws
Active member
We must be going down if Cisco is doing so well!
Do you wonder if "diminished expectations" is a strategy?
Strong results expected from Cisco as networking shines
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/strong-results-expected-from-cisco-2010-08-11
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Cisco Systems is expected to report another strong quarter, highlighted by a roughly 28% revenue gain and signs of ongoing strength in the market for networking gear.
Cisco is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after Wednesday's closing bell, as analysts also expect upbeat, if somewhat cautious commentary, from the company in light of the uncertainty in the global economy.
Key Phrase -->> I think this is indicative of all industry following the meltdown. After all, it has been 18 months, and Moore's Law still applies...
Wu said Cisco is benefitting from several trends, including continued growth of network traffic and "upgrades driven by catch-up spending due to years of under spending."
Rajan Varadarajan, analyst with Primary Global Research, also said in a statement that he expects Cisco "guide the future with a positive tone," as "the competitive landscape is playing into their strength in size and reach, globally."
crws
Active member
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=annwr7gY50dQ
Ten Stock Market Myths That Bedevil Investors: John Dorfman
crws
Active member
Yup.....
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the poster and do not necessarily reflect the views of the visitors to my thread.
The following comments are shared in hopes that the nature of negative rhetoric can be seen for what it is and what it does, in light of the upcoming election season (and.. the next 18 months hopefully, if history serves true, will make us the majority of our gains over the next 2 years).
(It's that propaganda class I took in High School that left me with a skeptical point of view...) :laugh:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-there-anyone-the-right-doesnt-hate-2010-08-18?pagenumber=1
Is there anyone the right doesn't hate?
Commentary: Fear mongering never went out of style in politics
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Whenever America faces her toughest challenges, you can always count on the right to be there.
Sowing hate, stoking fear.
So it's no surprise that in the midst of a great economic catastrophe, the right would search for scapegoats instead of answers.
And so we have the fabricated crisis of the "Mosque at Ground Zero."
Leave aside the fact that it's not a mosque and it's not at Ground Zero. This is really about hate and fear, the right's old friends.
For the last 45 years, at least, no matter who the Republican candidate has been, hate and fear were really at the top of the ticket.
Recall that in 1968, Richard Nixon won the presidency by stoking fear of Negroes and hippies. The vaunted Southern Strategy of the Republican Party was at its core a campaign of fear. What a ride it's had.
It's no longer fashionable to be officially afraid of blacks, but there is no shortage of substitutes.
Who is the right afraid of now?
Muslims. They want to fly airplanes into our homes.
Immigrants. They want to steal our jobs, go on welfare, have babies, and talk behind our backs in Spanish.
Foreigners. All the poor ones want to come to America (see above), and all the rich ones want the U.S. Navy to protect them.
Gays. They want to destroy our families by getting married.
Women. They want to be the boss at work and they want us to change the diapers at home.
Everyone on the Coasts, except San Diego and the Old Confederacy. They look down their noses at regular folk in the heartland.
The Federal Reserve. They stick it to the little guy.
Union workers. They don't do anything, but want a job for life.
Government employees. They don't do anything, but want a fat pension.
The unemployed. They don't do anything, but want a benefit check.
Baby boomers. They want to retire.
Liberals. They want government to take over everything, especially our guns. And our money.
Environmentalists. They want to take away our cars.
Doctors. They want to kill grandma, but only if the government pays them to do it.
Lawyers. They want to sue everyone, especially small businesses.
Dentists. They want to fluoridate the water.
Teachers. They want to brainwash our children.
Mormons. They want to marry our wives.
Of course I don't. First, plenty of people who aren't conservatives express the same fears. (I'm talking to you, Harry Reid.) And many conservatives don't buy into the fear. But most of their leaders do, from Sean Hannity and Sarah Palin all the way down to John Boehner and Eric Cantor.
Second, liberals also exploit hate and fear at times, but they are rank amateurs.
And third, most people who have these fears haven't given it much thought. They are too busy with their lives, trying to get the bills paid and the lawn mowed. That's the beauty of fear and hate as a political tactic; the paranoid style of politics bypasses the brain and goes right for the gut.
Fear is an emotional argument, not a rational one.
Anyone who gave this mosque issue more than two minutes of thought would conclude, as President Barack Obama did, that, zoning issues aside, it's simply none of our business where a religious group locates a mosque, a church, a synagogue or a cultural center.
Let's repeat that for those in the back: Simply none of our business.
Yes, perhaps it is insensitive for Muslims to show their faces in Lower Manhattan, or anywhere else in America. But it's no more insensitive than exploiting, yet again, the tragic loss of the 9/11 victims' families for political gain. Haven't they suffered enough?
America was founded, in part, by people who thought fighting over theology was pointless as well as destructive. They established freedom of religion, making it the law of the land that, unless your beliefs and practices are an actual threat to someone, your religion is none of my business.
And hurt feelings don't count as threats.
It's been a pretty good law, by and large, despite the best efforts of some, in the past, to persecute Masons, Catholics, Mormons, atheists, and Jews.
America has been spared the sectarian violence that has killed so many people and doomed so many regions to poverty and injustice. It turns out that not only is freedom of religion the right thing; it's also a good thing.
And so it's disturbing to listen to what some people are saying about the so-called mosque. They say Islam is a satanic cult. They say Islam demands continual holy war. And they repeat other odious lies that, if said about Christianity or Judaism, would be roundly condemned by all and wouldn't get the time of day on cable news.
In the stupidest thing said by a supposed intellectual since Woody Allen proposed to Soon-Yi Previn, Newt Gingrich said, "There should be no mosque near Ground Zero in New York so long as there are no churches or synagogues in Saudi Arabia."
Imagine President Gingrich standing up to Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and telling him bluntly: "If you're not going to respect human rights, then neither will we!"
And so here's the challenge for Newt and other leaders of the right: We know you have fear. Got ideas?
Rex Nutting is MarketWatch's international commentary editor.
crws
Active member
I posted that with you in mind, my friend...
I guess we're accustomed to that out here on the Left Coast.
crws
Active member
I think generalization was the point..... the credibility issue is supplemental. I still think it speaks quite pointedly of current media focus and what it's doing to our attitudes as a whole.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seeking-trading-solutions-in-an-uncertain-world-2010-08-18
Now, I'm not suggesting we cower in a corner, buy guns and butter and get all Mel Gibson on each other. Further, I understand most folks aren't in a position to seize the day and walk away. I've written in the past that if we're not part of the solution, we're part of the problem and that remains true, now more than ever; society, at the end of the day, is simply a sum of the parts.
As we wrestle with reality and attempt to operate in the best interests of ourselves and those we love, some have chosen to extricate themselves from an increasingly tenuous struggle to focus on the little things in life. I suppose they're lucky to have that option and their actions are consistent with a widespread reprioritization following the Great Recession. I've written about them before; net worth versus self-worth, having fun versus being happy and the caveats of looking for validation at the bottom of a bank account. Read Minyanville's "Memoirs of a Minyan."
For those motivated to power through to better days and easier trades, the actions of a few effects the lives of many; we, the people, need motivated, innovative proactive problem-solvers to remain engaged as the second side of the storm approaches. While our financial equation is multi-linear and ever-changing, my sense is that we've got four to five years of perseverance and preservation as a precursor to the profound, generational opportunities that will emerge thereafter.Similar threads
