Not only do higher commodity prices feed inflation expectations, bidding up interest rates, but you also have the direct impact of higher commodity prices siphoning liquidity from the Treasury market, as our foreign, one-time creditors say, "Oh, no, now I have to pay an extra dollar on oil." And you see that in recent international flows.
It is not for nothing that the emerging economies, which really are the biggest consumers of commodities, are the ones that were sellers of Treasuries. They really need to use these dollars, and urgently, because they don't want to have an Egypt-style situation on their own hands. So you see articles every day about how countries from Brazil to China are starting to stockpile resources, and they are using forex [foreign-exchange] reserves to do that. So it isn't just some kind of abstract theory; it is actually playing out. Take China, for example. Over the past three months, China has been a net seller of Treasuries.
What does all of this lead to?
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