Crommie's Account Talk

[imike023]

Well I looked around every corner that I could find in search of something positive to buy back in on and founding nothing except some bulls snorting in the shadows and not looking like they had any running left in them for the moment...:worried: So I will sit here on this lillypad and watch ole man river keep on flowing by for a while. I thought about using my second IFT to move some to the F Fund, but IMO it looks kind of top heavy. So G it is going into May looking for a dip to buy and the next upwave to ride.

Hey, I just noticed that this is my 100th Post!!!

I'm with you crommie, just sitting in the lillypad and will wait. Hoping we both time it right and get some profit going

Congrats on the 100th post

 

[crommie]

Thank you Imike and Judy for your input.
I was trying to get my desision posted before noon but got delayed. I also forgot to mention that this week's many employment reports may not be very good based on the weekly jobless reports over the past month not being very good. And then there is Europe raising it's ugly head again casting doubt as to if they will keep their recovery plans or if they can even keep their governments in power to do what they said they would do! :worried::blink:

 

[jpcavin]

Momentum and trend still looks good.

 

[crommie]

Man oh man what a ride today! :notrust: When I went to G on Friday I had every intention of buying back in on Monday to start the month invested. Monday played right into this plan by being moderately down, but I chickened out and stayed put in G. :embarrest: I was kicking myself all day today as I watched what could have been the perfect +1% one day trade unfold! Could of, should of, why didn't I stick to the plan! So, to me, the end of the day sell off was a blessing as I only missed out on a +0.25 to +0.50 gain depending on how I would have spread the buy either heavier in C or S. I still wish that I hadn't chickened out and had done what I said I was going to do...oh well. Need to focus ahead now as to where we go from here. Good luck everyone!

 

[crommie]

Ut Oh....:worried:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-06/hollande-defeats-sarkozy-in-shift-of-power-to-french-socialists.html

 

[crommie]

Is anyone else watching the European Markets climb back up and into positive territory? :suspicious: What's up with that? US futures are also headed that same dirrection...could today be the start of an up leg? Are the ECB and Fed pumping in cash to prevent what should have been a big down day?! :nuts: Thinking about a posible buy in or may wait a few more days...thoughts?

 

[felixthecat]

Is anyone else watching the European Markets climb back up and into positive territory? :suspicious: What's up with that? US futures are also headed that same dirrection...could today be the start of an up leg? Are the ECB and Fed pumping in cash to prevent what should have been a big down day?! :nuts: Thinking about a posible buy in or may wait a few more days...thoughts?

Germany's Merkel: Fiscal Pact Not Up for Renegotiation [TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: cFont cf11, width: 95%"]The European Union's fiscal compact is not up for renegotiation, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, a day after Socialist Francois Hollande won France's presidential election.

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Probably means the markets are happy that there won't be more turmoil when it comes to the fiscal pact laid out for Europe. I expect this to be a shortterm rally though...looks like a good place to trap an investor.

 

[crommie]

Went all in at 40C/40S/20I. Not feeling really confident with this but what the hell!

 

[crommie]

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cFont cf11, width: 95%"]The European Union's fiscal compact is not up for renegotiation, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, a day after Socialist Francois Hollande won France's presidential election.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Probably means the markets are happy that there won't be more turmoil when it comes to the fiscal pact laid out for Europe. I expect this to be a shortterm rally though...looks like a good place to trap an investor.

Good point Felix! I expected that the markets would have a far greater emotional responce then they did (expcept for Asia). The Europeans did at the open but cooler heads prevailed quickly. Perhaps the election outcomes were already priced in... :suspicious: On the other hand, if emotions had driven the US Markets down over a percent, this would have kicked the computers into selling mode too which would have been much worse. The way it has played out has caused the computers to stay neutral awaiting some dirrection to act on. I also agree with you that this could be a short term rally as there doesn't seem to be anything to drive the market up besides the fact that it is cheap at the moment. One needs to be nibble in these volatile times... and one needs to take what the market is willing to give. One should not live in the past, nor should one try to predict the future. Staying in the present and living moment by moment is a much better way ahead. Good Luck EVERYONE!!! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

If your gut hurts you are making the right decision.

 

[crommie]

If your gut hurts you are making the right decision.

Well Birch so far you were correct, my gut still hurts! But the jury is still out on whether or not it was a good decision.

Felix, so far it is looking like you were correct on Monday. :worried: I should have waited to buy back in.

Looks like a lot of us think this is the bottom and that we go up from here...as RMI says "time will tell"!

I am still up 4.44% in the autotracker and hanging around 400th place, so right on track for a +12% year!

And on another positive note, my thread has just passed 50 posts and 2000 views to go along with my 100+ posts!!!!!!

Good luck EVERYONE and keep the positive vibes flowing!

 

[crommie]

Well Birch so far you were correct, my gut still hurts! But the jury is still out on whether or not it was a good decision. Felix, so far it is looking like you were correct on Monday. :worried: I should have waited to buy back in.

Boy that last post seems like it was a long long time ago...and yes, my gut STILL HURTS! Although last Monday and today have taken a lot of the sting out of it and I have finally stopped kicking myself in the a$$ for buying into a falling knife situation and then not wanting to miss the ride back up by being out of IFTs. Who could have possibly seen a losing streak that hadn't been seen since the 1970s. So, the next two days will tell if staying in for a ride up in May was smart or stupid. Come June 1st, I could have bought back in anyhow. Oh well, at least I stayed patient after failing to be nibble. :embarrest:

Lesson learned: be patient when in a good trade, be nibble when in a bad trade, be patient when out and things are headed south, be nibble when out and the bulls start to run. Have I learned well Masters?

 

[crommie]

Went 100% G at COB today. I may buy back in over the next two weeks for a short term trade with IFT #2 and then back out by the 22nd. I am going on vacation to Ireland and Scotland for two weeks on the 24th and don't want to worry about being in. I am concerned that there will not be a QE3 anytime soon or at all. The European Banks may need recapilatation soon. The Greeks votes again on the 17th. Housing data may be dismal again this month and the jobs reports may not be anything to celebrate either...sorry to be so gloomy! :worried:

 

[crommie]

Well, I executed that one day trade and picked up 0.98%! Went in to C yesterday and back to G today. What is to come will determine if this was smart or not. After buying in on May 7th, the day after the first Greek election, and holding for the 30 downward skid, I wasn't going to get caught on the wrong side of this trade too. I am know back in the black for the year and am above the G Fund on the AutoTracker! That is a very good feeling after being negative in May.
Good Luck Everyone!

 

[ILoveTDs]

Congratulation Crommie. I know oh too well how good it feels to get out of the red. another bunt and run or two and you'll be betting the market.

 

[crommie]

I'm back from my two week vacation in Ireland and Scotland. Saw more sheep than I have in my entire life!
I have been luking around for the past couple of days trying to figure out where the markets have been and are going. Seems to be about the same as it was three weeks ago...up one day and down the next. The difference that I notice is the 10 year bond yield dropping below 1.5% and this earning reporting season looks like it won't be anything like the last one. :worried: The dollar is continuing up and the Euro down. Jobs, housing, sales, manufacturing, the Fed, and european gloom and doom all seem to be poised to take the markets lower. If there is a spark out there to pull them higher, I don't see it.
Before I left in June, I wanted to go all into F, but couldn't - out of IFTs. So I went G and changed my contributions to 100% F. So the last two paydays put some into F and now I moved the rest in there with my first IFT for July. I should've done it yesterday but wanted to see the markets reaction to todays jobs numbers first. With an okay jobs report the market continues down, so into F I went even though it is a bit high. I plan on moving into stocks with my second IFT later this month if conditions look favorable which will leave me with the safety move to G if needed.
Good luck to ALL!

 

[crommie]

I took a planned leap of 100% into C Fund before I saw this headline about the Deutsche Bank profits dropping from 1.2B euro to 700M euro. Deutsche Bank expects drop in Q2 net profit - MarketWatch I still had time to cancel the move, but decided to stick with it. :worried: My reasoning being that the IMF, ECB, & Germany hopefully will be coming out later this week with some good news about supporting Greece and Spain in their time of need. Then there is also the possibility of improvements in Macro economic indicators out of China and the good ole' USA. It also looked like the S&P 500 was bouncing nicely at 1340 and would most likely stay there or rise through the afternoon. Well we all know now that 1340 did not hold and that the first reports out of Greece from the visiting creditors wasn't very positive! I wonder which came first...:suspicious: Notice the time stamp on this report, 12:21 pm! EU officials see more Greek restructuring: report - MarketWatch Perhaps this is just what I want...to buy in lower and then go up from there. I always find it hard watching the market drop after making an IFT into stocks before noon. It just seems backwards if you know what I mean.
Good Luck to Everyone!

 

[crommie]

I stayed invested this week expecting either the Fed or the ECB to do something to excite the markets to a higher high. Well that didn't happen so I am going back to the F Fund until at least mid-month. Should have taken profits on Friday the 27th...oink, oink...:cheesy:. Hopefully <1% harm done depending on this afternoon. My reasoning for this exit is that this is feeling alittle like the first week of May with a slow downward drift and we know how that turned out! Also, next week Greece will be back in the headlines with the creditors report from their ongoing meetings coming out. Good luck EVERYONE!

 

[crommie]

So are the European Markets ralling because the econimic data was better than expected or because it was bad and therefore the ECB may be more inclined to do something nice? MarketWatch: PULSE: Euro-zone GDP falls 0.2% in second quarter

There also is good news out of Greece. The commision that audited them two weeks ago basically said that more cuts need to be made, but seems everyone is going on summer vacation, we will be back in Sept to work on that. Then today, Greece sold 13-week bonds to pay off the ECB next Monday and prevent default for at least another 13 weeks. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444318104577588703832255074.html

So what does all of this mean? Will the ECB, BOE, China Central Bank and/or the FedRes put out any QE3? Will Spain and/or Itally ask for a bail out? Will the markets think that is good or bad? Is the current melt up the beginning of a new wall-of-worry? When the heavy hitters return with volume will they be buying or selling?

IMO this is now starting to feel like Jan, Feb, March....to much worry about the possiblity of a drop to get in and the market continues to climb with no dips to buy....:suspicious:

 

[crommie]

The thing about being in the F Fund is that it gives you a push-me/pull-me that the G Fund doesn't. I am not sure the timing is right to go into stocks, but it is definately right to get out of the F Fund. Went 50% C and 50% I today. Hoping that whatever is keeping this market afloat continues. Good Luck Everyone!