Crommie's Account Talk

[crommie]

Went 98% S Fund, 1% C Fund & 1% I Fund today. I got stuck in a meeting until 1140 or so and had to beat feet back to my desk to quickly assess where we were and if there was anything out there to change my mind. Thank you to Bquatt, Cool Hand, Show-me, WorkFE and others that posted positively! Oh, and of coarse, thank you Birch, our resident PermaBull, for showing the way!

 

[crommie]

Oh dear...:worried:

BBC News - Greek austerity plans not ready, say eurozone ministers

 

[crommie]

Good morning,
With all the talk of going to the lilly pads, I thought I would share some bullishness to help those of you staying in with me feel a little more comfortable with it.
Here is a quote from the below linked article from Bloomberg.com:
"U.S. gross domestic product expanded an average 2.4 percent a quarter in the 2 1/2 years since the recession ended in 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The world’s largest economy hasn’t had a smaller post-recession recovery rate since at least the 1940s, the data show. In the 2003 bull market, GDP rose 2.7 percent on average, before the S&P 500 surged 102 percent. For the 1982 rally, the rate was 5.7 percent. Equities more than tripled in that cycle."

S&P 500 Gets 9% Cheaper as Record Profit Restores $3.2 Trillion - Bloomberg

Good luck everyone!

 

[WorkFE]

Crommie,
Even though it seems like alot of talk heading to the side lines I believe most are in your camp on this one. I believe we'll see more little bites into the G than we will entire accounts. JMHO I've been wrong before.
Even after all the correction talk I'm still not decided on a direction.

 

[crommie]

What the heck! :blink:
One not so great report about durable goods and all the european markets go from up 0.5% to down 0.5% and US futures tank too?!
I guess today will look a lot like yesterday...start down and end high?

 

[lacaprup]

What the heck! :blink:
One not so great report about durable goods and all the european markets go from up 0.5% to down 0.5% and US futures tank too?!
I guess today will look a lot like yesterday...start down and end high?

It wasn't just not so great. It was the worst report since January 2009.
News Headlines

 

[Birchtree]

Success in investing comes from being able to see not what is in front of you but what is lurking just around the corner - better days ahead.

 

[Birchtree]

The Richmond Fed said manufacturing activity in its region rose for the third straight month, climbing to 20 in February, 12 in January, and 3 in December. Yes the future is bright.

 

[crommie]

Success in investing comes from being able to see not what is in front of you but what is lurking just around the corner - better days ahead.

To use one of Birch's appropriate quotes, I am looking around the corner and seeing the dip that so many have been predicting lurking there. :worried: So, with that in mind I am most likely moving to 100% F Fund today on this huge move up. Any opinions in agreement or to the contrary?

 

[crommie]

Well, I was in the S Fund for exactly one month and managed to pick up 0.33%...how sad...I could have just stayed in the F Fund for all of that time and still would have gained 0.25%! Oh well, now back on the hunt for the next buy in opertunity. Hopefully the F Fund will be kind while I wait here for maybe a few weeks. I remain bullish for the year, but bearish for the next few weeks. I did not want to stay in, take a wacking and read Tom and CH statements along the lines of I told you so! This decission was based on a lot of reading this week of what the smart people are thinking mixed in with my own thoughts or perhaps it is just horse sense! Time will tell...

 

[Murphys_Law]

I know the feeling Crommie. Slow and steady wins the race. I used to think i knew what i was doing and then i realized...I DON'T. It is probably why you, me and others are on this site.

Well, I was in the S Fund for exactly one month and managed to pick up 0.33%...how sad...I could have just stayed in the F Fund for all of that time and still would have gained 0.25%! Oh well, now back on the hunt for the next buy in opertunity. Hopefully the F Fund will be kind while I wait here for maybe a few weeks. I remain bullish for the year, but bearish for the next few weeks. I did not want to stay in, take a wacking and read Tom and CH statements along the lines of I told you so! This decission was based on a lot of reading this week of what the smart people are thinking mixed in with my own thoughts or perhaps it is just horse sense! Time will tell...

 

[ssdave]

I agree with you, as I got out today also. Can't put a good analysis of why, except too many things making me nervous. Greece does what amounts to an orderly default, and it's good news. Hmmm.... Europe markets up across the board, but euro down over 1% against the dollar. I read that as reaction to the Greek news driving emotions to raise the markets, but smart money buying into dollars to avoid the inveitable bill that comes with the Greece restructuring. I think the market will go down next week in response to continued Greece meetings and decisions, as the implications sink in. Our market went up simultaneously with dollar going up. Usually they're moving counter to each other. Then, the much talked about overdue correction maybe still hanging out around the corner? Maybe this week wasn't enough? S&P looked at 1375 as resistance again.

My take on it is I'm up over 3.5 percent for the year. That was nearly my entire gain last year. I have one IFT left this month, and there's nine months left in the year. I'll hang on to that 3.5 percent, and look for some more monthly 1 or 2 percents to make up the years return. Sidestep risk, preserve gains.

dave

 

[crommie]

Murph's Law and ssdave, thank you for posting to my thread and I agree with both of you!

I am still in F Fund riding its rebound back up on this week's equity weakness. It certainly was a mistake getting into F on the 9th. Should have waited a week and got out on the 16th...
I am very close to moving back into the market, most likely C with a sprinkling of S. I suspect the dollar to get stronger and therefore am going to avoid I for awhile. I will make this move next week as I want to wait to see how deep this dip is. I also am thinking that next Wednesday's durable goods report may not be so good...but what do I know. :nuts:
Good luck everyone!

 

[crommie]

Great News! I hope all of you in Missouri will consider supporting Sentor McClaskill this fall.

"A Pentagon base closing initiative died Wednesday when a key senator announced she will block any effort to create a new base closing commission. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, chairwoman of the Senate Armed Services Committee panel with jurisdiction over military installations, said she is willing to allow the closing of U.S. military bases overseas, but not domestic bases. There is strong opposition to new base closures on the House Armed Services Committee, which also appears unlikely to approve the legislation necessary to create a base closing list."

Here is the link to the full article:

http://www.militarytimes.com/news/2012/03/military-senator-kills-plans-for-new-brac-round-032112w/

 

[crommie]

Well I got into the F Fund back on 3/9/12, rode it down and back up again just in time to jump out of it and back into stocks on today's drop before the end of the month. I expect tomorrow's job reports to be good taking the market back up again. I also like Bquatt's inverted H&S pattern. I'm not worried about the five day breaking as there is a lot of support around 1393. I went 75% C, 20% S, and 5% I. Good Luck EVERYONE!

 

[Handballer]

Great News! I hope all of you in Missouri will consider supporting Sentor McClaskill this fall.


I'm glad she voted like that. If she voted for the closure her job may not be hers in the future.

 

[crommie]

Taking a 100% seat on a lillypad for the weekend. A long as nothing horrific happens, I will probably go back into stocks on Monday prior to the end of the month. What the heck, I got the IFTs, might as well try something with them... Everyone should be keeping an eye on Spain, Italy and Greece. Greece votes on May 6th. :worried:

 

[crommie]

Quote from this article on Bloomberg, U.S. Stocks Decline as Spanish Economy Enters Recession - Bloomberg that pretty much sums up what we are all trying to figure out...

Analysts predict U.S. shares will rise enough this year to boost the S&P 500 to a record, even as Wall Street strategists say the best is already over for American equities.
Individual price forecasts for stocks show the combined projection for the gauge has risen to 1,569.74, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the October 2007 high of 1,565.15. At the same time, strategists who base their predictions on assessments of the economy say this year’s rally represents all the gains investors will see.
Bullish forecasts are based on analysts’ expectations that S&P 500 earnings will reach records every year through 2014 as stimulus by the Federal Reserve props up the U.S. economy. Bears say Europe’s debt crisis won’t be contained and economic growth will be insufficient to maintain gains that have restored more than $3 trillion to U.S. equities in six months.
“The financial strength of corporate America is stronger than people believe,” Jeffrey Schwarte, a money manager who helps oversee about $258.2 billion in Des Moines, Iowa, at Principal Global Investors, said in a telephone interview on April 25. “We believe earnings ultimately matter.”

So I may buy back in today for a short play and back out on Thursday or I may just sit out for a while...less than two hours to decide...thoughts anyone?

 

[jpcavin]

So I may buy back in today for a short play and back out on Thursday or I may just sit out for a while...less than two hours to decide...thoughts anyone?

Don't know about going in since I am already in but I'm staying invested.

 

[crommie]

Well I looked around every corner that I could find in search of something positive to buy back in on and founding nothing except some bulls snorting in the shadows and not looking like they had any running left in them for the moment...:worried: So I will sit here on this lillypad and watch ole man river keep on flowing by for a while. I thought about using my second IFT to move some to the F Fund, but IMO it looks kind of top heavy. So G it is going into May looking for a dip to buy and the next upwave to ride.

Hey, I just noticed that this is my 100th Post!!!