Corepuncher's Account Talk

[amoeba]

well:

under normal circumstances, a "99%" chance that this is a soon-to-be-concluded bear rally would be seen as a contrarian bearish indicator, but coming from CP, it is not. I think he's right; at some point, the bell will toll on government interventions, both here and China and elsewhere, and the world economy will have to right itself, and achieve a new supply/demand balance.

In the very short term, bank earnings don't mean squat when the interest rate curve is so steep; that's artificial and won't last. Alot of the rest of the economy is at least partially confounded by "stimulus" this and that, housing "crisis" bailouts of people who don't pay loans, bad asset purchases, and all other manner of federal moves.

When this (i.e., money printing/handouts) ends, we'll know the true direction of the market.

I predict next unemployment number tops minus 700,000, and the last month will be revised.

 

[Birchtree]

amoeba,

When you are ready to go long I'll be ready to head for safety - and since you are frozen on the lily pad until May I'll be safe to remain a buy and hold.

 

[Corepuncher]

amoeba,

When you are ready to go long I'll be ready to head for safety - and since you are frozen on the lily pad until May I'll be safe to remain a buy and hold.

Only 4% more and you will be at 0% YTD. I am getting nervous, you are hot on my tail!

I'm not going to rely on a bunch of crooks and liars to make my retirement go up. Once the Glass-Steagall Act is re-enacted, watch how the market greets it...it will be inverse fanfare.

Goldman Sachs "record quarter"...that just makes me furious and shudder with disgust!

This is the bottom line, and nobody can argue with it. The US taxpayer is getting it in both holes...straight out robbed and raped. You know how we always look at other countries and say "oh, you can't trust China's numbers, they manipulate them." Well, how much worse do other countries look upon us now, as it is SO OBVIOUS how we are papering over reality and creating a fictional financial system. They will only help "bail us out" as long as the administration continues to rob the public in order to pay them off. Don't let them fool you, it is NOT for our own good...it is for THEIR OWN GOOD!

What is even more twisted is that somehow, the reasoning for propping up these criminals is so that they can in turn lend money back to us again, so that they can make more money! The jig is up, and if you want to look the other way and pretend like everything is going to be fine, be my guest. This is going to become the "Greater Depression", it is a matter of when, not if. If you want to risk all your life savings, be my guest.

This rally was predictable. We've gone down ABOUT 50% which is on target for a bad bear market...and we've been it it for about 2 years. Then you have all the pump monkeys predicting an economic recovery later THIS YEAR? You have got to be kidding me. I've heard this song before. Remember the S&P was supposed to be back to 1500-1600 by the end of 2008? What happened to that? GS's prediction of OIL at 149 at the end of 2008, what happened to that? Bernankes prediction of a shallow recession, etc.

These forecasts of economic recovery depend on the idea of us first printing money, then, lending it out to eager borrowers who just can't wait to rack up more debt and spend spend spend! Anyone on this board ready to add to their credit card debt? Oh come on, you need to buy an electric car!

It should be obvious not to trust ANY financial firms predictions! A GM STRUCTURED bankruptcy will still end up eroding 1 million jobs (as opposed to 3 million).

In my view, there is probably something far worse than October '87 coming. There will be little if any warning. It will probably manifest itself first as a huge techtonic shift in the credit/bond markets. Then, stock market crash.

Remember how Bernanke was so staunch against inflation? Now he lowered rates to ZERO and is doing quantitative easing? He is not dumb, and knows that major deflation is likely. He has pulled out all the stops and now the guns are out of ammo. The only ammo left is to print money, which just blows back in your face anyway.

If you think we will inflate our way out of this, then stay in the market. If you think there will be deflation, then you should be happy with G fund.

 

[KevinD]

In other words...

Johnny's in the basement
Mixing up the medicine
I'm on the pavement
Thinking about the government
The man in the trench coat
Badge out, laid off
Says he's got a bad cough
Wants to get it paid off
Look out kid
It's somethin' you did
God knows when
But you're doin' it again
You better duck down the alley way
Lookin' for a new friend
The man in the coon-skin cap
In the big pen
Wants eleven dollar bills
You only got ten

Maggie comes fleet foot
Face full of black soot
Talkin' that the heat put
Plants in the bed but
The phone's tapped anyway
Maggie says that many say
They must bust in early May
Orders from the D. A.
Look out kid
Don't matter what you did
Walk on your tip toes
Don't try "No Doz"
Better stay away from those
That carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
You don't need a weather man
To know which way the wind blows

Get sick, get well
Hang around a ink well
Ring bell, hard to tell
If anything is goin' to sell
Try hard, get barred
Get back, write braille
Get jailed, jump bail
Join the army, if you fail
Look out kid
You're gonna get hit
But users, cheaters
Six-time losers
Hang around the theaters
Girl by the whirlpool
Lookin' for a new fool
Don't follow leaders
Watch the parkin' meters

Ah get born, keep warm
Short pants, romance, learn to dance
Get dressed, get blessed
Try to be a success
Please her, please him, buy gifts
Don't steal, don't lift
Twenty years of schoolin'
And they put you on the day shift
Look out kid
They keep it all hid
Better jump down a manhole
Light yourself a candle
Don't wear sandals
Try to avoid the scandals
Don't wanna be a bum
You better chew gum
The pump don't work
'Cause the vandals took the handles

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Bravo cp! Bravo!

 

[DCguy]

Whats so intersting is that since March, WFC is up 250%, GS is up 300%, C is up 400%, BAC is up 500%,... and all claim record profit.. and GM's about to declare bankrupcy..

 

[ContrarianJeff]

Excellent post, CP. You hit the nail on the head.

 

[Birchtree]

No comment.

 

[Corepuncher]

No comment.

I made the market go down today, aren't you amazed?

 

[Birchtree]

Today was perhaps a pause that refreshes - the question is why did the VIX give back some today with the market going down. I'm ready for tomorrow. I have you in a quote on my thread.

 

[amoeba]

amoeba,

When you are ready to go long I'll be ready to head for safety - and since you are frozen on the lily pad until May I'll be safe to remain a buy and hold.

That I'd like to see; so when was it you last were out of equities? The Spanish inquisition? FYI, I used my 2 IFT's on the 3% up day last week. Might not be "long", but it was profitable.

No G-fund = wet powder.

 

[Corepuncher]

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/970-The-Tea-Parties-Whats-Really-Going-On.html

 

[DCguy]

core, I'm guessing sp500 formed an oscillation near 850 and it now has lost its steam to stay afloat. I've been 100% G. Can you make the prediction of where this market will end before the real bull rally? thx.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

core, I'm guessing sp500 formed an oscillation near 850 and it now has lost its steam to stay afloat. I've been 100% G. Can you make the prediction of where this market will end before the real bull rally? thx.

I m a hunderd % G allso Im not touching till a drop of 8% or more in C or I from where I got out.

 

[Corepuncher]

core, I'm guessing sp500 formed an oscillation near 850 and it now has lost its steam to stay afloat. I've been 100% G. Can you make the prediction of where this market will end before the real bull rally? thx.

I'm very comfortable in G. I don't know when the market will turn back down, but I predict that the G fund rate of return will far surpass stocks by years end.

 

[Corepuncher]

The "Green shoots" are a joke. Yet, the sheeple continue to get drawn in. At some point everyone will realize that the world has changed and stock market behavior coming out of a bottom will not mimic past behavior. It's only a matter of time before the next shoe drops. There are major forces at work here and pressures are building. I believe the probability is high that another techtonic shift will occur, and there will be casualties. Staying in G!

 

[Birchtree]

Well I certainly hope you are correct. Still I'm gonna hold 68C and 32I until you are proven wrong.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

The "Green shoots" are a joke. Yet, the sheeple continue to get drawn in. At some point everyone will realize that the world has changed and stock market behavior coming out of a bottom will not mimic past behavior. It's only a matter of time before the next shoe drops. There are major forces at work here and pressures are building. I believe the probability is high that another techtonic shift will occur, and there will be casualties. Staying in G!

RIGHT ON... RIGHT ON..... RIGHT ON MAJOR MANPULATION

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Well I certainly hope you are correct. Still I'm gonna hold 68C and 32I until you are proven wrong.

Big B, I like I fund the most, was doing timing research mar 9 is the low for the I fund 10.5 the high is 14.6 on jan 7 2009, I wonder what day?? will the I fund hit its High for this bull run. Tops are harder to predict then bottoms.

Watching the last rally (per TSP FUND) HAPPENED mid nov 08 to early jan 09 about 45 days TO TOP JAN 7 09 with about 60 days to reach the low MAR 9 09 and now were to 60 days on the rally on may 8 09?

IM just trying to grasp what information is different from nov dec 08 verses this,,,,rally...... the conditions of continuation in this rally? Some of these banks (Most) need billions more in capital and yet price up?? what the H***??? Still ave. 600000 + unemployment # per week no ones hiring for good jobs, sure you can work for 10 hr. or less, no big money jobs,more foreclosures are in the pipe line both residential and commerce Im stunned.


the optimistic opium is flowing while pessimistic porn takes a back seat.

If I had just known what big B knows I could been a contender, I counda been somebody in stead just a bum.

 

[JTH]

If I had just known what big B knows I could been a contender, I counda been somebody in stead just a bum.

You don't have to know anything if your strategy is to do nothing.

The big tree has his roots firmly planted on the edge of a river bank. Being right for 60 days since October 2007 is like a broken clock being right twice a day.

http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_123108.pdf