350zCommTech
Well-known member
Last edited:
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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
Corepuncher
Well-known member
We may fall off the cliff this PM.
I guess if that is the case, I will be ok with my 1% loss since we're going to break 741 and end up at least 699 soon.
Get ready for another big downleg...this "retest" has officially FAILED IMO.
felixthecat
Member
Need I say more.I am pretty darn confused:
No jump in the ^vix; no rise in volume on the SPY; just a painful, steady, drift of the indices into the abyss. And I'm losing money.
I still have 6% in equities, and 10% in bonds, which I am considering play money - as tomorrow is job claims day - and I don't see much good to come of it.
RATZ!!!!
No jump in the ^vix; no rise in volume on the SPY; just a painful, steady, drift of the indices into the abyss. And I'm losing money.
I still have 6% in equities, and 10% in bonds, which I am considering play money - as tomorrow is job claims day - and I don't see much good to come of it.
RATZ!!!!
Steadygain
TSP Elite
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=209679&postcount=4921
All the more I say we should call it what it really is
This SOB - started off looking so good - it's just total garbage...
I can't help but believe in the long rung you'll be glad you bailed...sorry :embarrest:
All the more I say we should call it what it really is
This SOB - started off looking so good - it's just total garbage...
I can't help but believe in the long rung you'll be glad you bailed...sorry :embarrest:
felixthecat
Member
Screw driver this market...I'm out. Little investor can hardly make a buck now. Dam this market so it doesn't leak any more.
Minnow
Well-known member
Not trying to correct you or anything just to make you aware. If you were talking about inital claims, that was this morning and it wasn't pretty.
Happy investing.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Today was jobless claims and it was bad.
The VIX not rising fast means there are still too many bulls.
yes - thanks for correcting me there.......I don't pay too much attention to the claims numbers alone, but everything was a miss today; newhomesales, durable goods, claims.
and yes - vix not rising on a sell-off IS a bad sign, if it's falling with too many bulls, what happens when these get shaken out?
and guess what - volume not rising IS a bad sign too, that means there are still to many, bulls, buyers-and-holders of SPYs.
Just plain aweful situation. Now what? Any ideas?
Minnow
Well-known member
felixthecat
Member
I'm looking for answers. I punted until the market can find some footing. Market appears like it showing more volatility. I do know that while I was in I made no money. The market was down and up and canceled out everything. So, I can't say now is the time. I'll try again next month. 
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I stated at the beginning of this latest downleg that it will turn ugly when the NASDAQ, previously the leader, falls apart. Look no further than today...NASDAQ is down 2X what the DOW is. The leadership is getting killed now and prepare to enter no-mans land in the charts. Spooky stuff...I believe this will NOT end until we have a panic / VIX High capitulation.
Maybe very minor support near 700. Jobs report next week...will not be good in fact it will be the worst one yet.
Maybe very minor support near 700. Jobs report next week...will not be good in fact it will be the worst one yet.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
CP
With 3.15% you had room to play and still come out ahead.
Man look at F,C,S,I - You're doing fantastic - still way on top!!
IMHO - anyone above the water has a whole lot to celebrate
So be cool man - you really have done well - all things considered
With 3.15% you had room to play and still come out ahead.
Man look at F,C,S,I - You're doing fantastic - still way on top!!
IMHO - anyone above the water has a whole lot to celebrate
So be cool man - you really have done well - all things considered
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Thanks Steady, that made me feel better. I guess my forecast of a "bounce" near 741 came true, but I bought 1 day too early. Very difficult environment with these stupid TSP rules. It ended up costing me 1.32%. I'm sill 2.21 after today so yeah I am not too bummed.
All I have to do to make up my 1.32% loss is to buy back in at 743. That is certainly attainable and actually somewhere around 700 will be possible soon. That would make me back 7.6% and there would be much rejoicing
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I could have rotated the cliff counterclockwise about 30 degrees to become more realistic I suppose...
Boghie
Well-known member
Diving!!!
I hope
But, like the diver, what stops the fall? I don't see anything or any reasonable economic belief structure that gives me Hope.
The only good news is that if even one S&P company is still in business the 'C Fund' will be worth something
I could have rotated the cliff counterclockwise about 30 degrees to become more realistic I suppose...
I hope
But, like the diver, what stops the fall? I don't see anything or any reasonable economic belief structure that gives me Hope.
The only good news is that if even one S&P company is still in business the 'C Fund' will be worth something
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Next week is key. Not only have we broken below support on the S&P, but we have the Feb jobs report looming on Friday.
If we don't get obliterated early next week, you may want to wait for Friday and see what happens with that report. I fear it will be MUCH worse than anticipated, by at least -100K jobs.
I'm at my parents house this weekend in Great Bend, KS. The meat packing plant is shutting down, and even the mexican restaurant we went to last night is closing. My mother had her car broken into in broad daylight at the dollar store. Crime is increasing...some places worse than others.
The feds said they will not nationalize the banks. Well guess what, if home prices continue to decline (and numbers are getting worse), those losses will continue to deepen. Credit card shoe has not dropped yet, but mark my words, it WILL, severely crimping consumer spending even further. So at that point in time when they go back on their promise and have to nationalize, it will be catastrophic, because confidence is already almost zero.
We have been down like 9 of the last 10 days, yet the VIX has not spiked. I predict the VIX to gradually increase, and crescendo, within weeks. Oh yeah the autos are in major trouble and a GM bankruptcy is coming.
The only bullish arguments I hear continue to be based on comparing past recessions and valuation levels. While many people might look to those things for guidance, I believe it is foolish. The governments "stress test" for banks contains a "worst case scenario" of a -3.3% GDP, if I remember correctly, for 2009. That is laughable, and not surprising...governments forecasts, in many realms, are typicaly very conservative by nature.
All kinds of guns cocked and loaded, pointing right at our economy. Interest rates are ALREADY as low as they can go...so they can only go UP! Many consumers are saturated with debt, so this talk of "we need to get banks to lend" is just stupid talk. Since Obama says these types of things, I have no choice but to consider him ignorant at best. Given the ever increasing US debt, the value of the dollar will go down significantly at some point, raising commodity prices. Gas prices probably can't go much lower and if they go up to 3-4 bucks a gallon, will further strangle the economy. What if Israel bombs Iran, and they cut off oil exports? What about a terrorist attack, kicking us while we are down? What are the good things that can happen to make the market go up?? You tell me.
As for market trading, I will continue to have a bearish overall outlook, but will try to catch bounces here and there. I will try not to risk more than 50% at any time and only play with that. I suggest keeping 50% in G for that "black swan." Any number I can throw out is purely arbitrary now since we have cracked the only support level that matters anymore. We might hold here for a bit I guess, if only because nobody wants another major crash. I'm keen to wait for a break into the 600s in the S&P. We may have a >10% down day soon. I think 650 is a reasonable near term target.
I'm trying not to bee too biased, but you tell me what the bullish argument is...something besides "this and that has always worked in the past", because one thing is for sure, you can throw out the entire system post Raegan, it is gone.
If we don't get obliterated early next week, you may want to wait for Friday and see what happens with that report. I fear it will be MUCH worse than anticipated, by at least -100K jobs.
I'm at my parents house this weekend in Great Bend, KS. The meat packing plant is shutting down, and even the mexican restaurant we went to last night is closing. My mother had her car broken into in broad daylight at the dollar store. Crime is increasing...some places worse than others.
The feds said they will not nationalize the banks. Well guess what, if home prices continue to decline (and numbers are getting worse), those losses will continue to deepen. Credit card shoe has not dropped yet, but mark my words, it WILL, severely crimping consumer spending even further. So at that point in time when they go back on their promise and have to nationalize, it will be catastrophic, because confidence is already almost zero.
We have been down like 9 of the last 10 days, yet the VIX has not spiked. I predict the VIX to gradually increase, and crescendo, within weeks. Oh yeah the autos are in major trouble and a GM bankruptcy is coming.
The only bullish arguments I hear continue to be based on comparing past recessions and valuation levels. While many people might look to those things for guidance, I believe it is foolish. The governments "stress test" for banks contains a "worst case scenario" of a -3.3% GDP, if I remember correctly, for 2009. That is laughable, and not surprising...governments forecasts, in many realms, are typicaly very conservative by nature.
All kinds of guns cocked and loaded, pointing right at our economy. Interest rates are ALREADY as low as they can go...so they can only go UP! Many consumers are saturated with debt, so this talk of "we need to get banks to lend" is just stupid talk. Since Obama says these types of things, I have no choice but to consider him ignorant at best. Given the ever increasing US debt, the value of the dollar will go down significantly at some point, raising commodity prices. Gas prices probably can't go much lower and if they go up to 3-4 bucks a gallon, will further strangle the economy. What if Israel bombs Iran, and they cut off oil exports? What about a terrorist attack, kicking us while we are down? What are the good things that can happen to make the market go up?? You tell me.
As for market trading, I will continue to have a bearish overall outlook, but will try to catch bounces here and there. I will try not to risk more than 50% at any time and only play with that. I suggest keeping 50% in G for that "black swan." Any number I can throw out is purely arbitrary now since we have cracked the only support level that matters anymore. We might hold here for a bit I guess, if only because nobody wants another major crash. I'm keen to wait for a break into the 600s in the S&P. We may have a >10% down day soon. I think 650 is a reasonable near term target.
I'm trying not to bee too biased, but you tell me what the bullish argument is...something besides "this and that has always worked in the past", because one thing is for sure, you can throw out the entire system post Raegan, it is gone.
Boghie
Well-known member
CorePuncher...
Additionally, there will be a 'capital strike'. Folks are going to start (if they haven't already) adjusting to the 'new' tax code - the one we have been watching form since about August 2008. Who wants to invest in market segments that may be nationalized - or maybe just talked down or bad mouthed? Who wants to invest in an environment when the unseen hand is the Federal or State Government?
For me, I have spent the last year preparing for my personal 'capital strike'. I will pay less in tax if they increase my tax burden. I still have tax deferred space in my TSP and my health benefits. But, will I be in the stock market in this political environment – NOPE.
Just wished I could invest in a money market – something that could not be raided by the Fed if ‘they feel the need’ (like the Chinese, Saudis, or Oldsters not buying Treasury Bonds – heaven forbid)
Additionally, there will be a 'capital strike'. Folks are going to start (if they haven't already) adjusting to the 'new' tax code - the one we have been watching form since about August 2008. Who wants to invest in market segments that may be nationalized - or maybe just talked down or bad mouthed? Who wants to invest in an environment when the unseen hand is the Federal or State Government?
For me, I have spent the last year preparing for my personal 'capital strike'. I will pay less in tax if they increase my tax burden. I still have tax deferred space in my TSP and my health benefits. But, will I be in the stock market in this political environment – NOPE.
Just wished I could invest in a money market – something that could not be raided by the Fed if ‘they feel the need’ (like the Chinese, Saudis, or Oldsters not buying Treasury Bonds – heaven forbid)
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