Corepuncher's Account Talk

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A somewhat disappointing close, but I still have hope that we can rise up to 800-810 by COB Friday. I may get an itchy finger and sell 20-30% anywhere above 770, since that will secure a small profit...and buy lower in March. I will try to stick to my guns of 800-810 though...even if it takes me into March first.
 
CP--Thanks for keeping us updated on your analysis. If the market does not rebound in the next few days, is there a price-point lower when you will throw in the towel? Or will you just stick it out no matter how far we go down?
 
ContrarianJeff said:
CP--Thanks for keeping us updated on your analysis. If the market does not rebound in the next few days, is there a price-point lower when you will throw in the towel? Or will you just stick it out no matter how far we go down?
Click to expand...

I have 40% (plus a TSP loan) out of the market right now...so I think if we suddenly break 700 and go lower, I will keep what I have in, and wait to buy really low.

All indications are that we SHOULD rally at least to 805-810. If we DO NOT rally to those levels, then it could be a very loud and clear sign to GET OUT! I will be watching closely. As long as we keep bouncing off 742-755 levels, I will expect a bull rally...but not a 20% one...maybe 5% to 7%.
 
Corepuncher said:
I have 40% (plus a TSP loan) out of the market right now...so I think if we suddenly break 700 and go lower, I will keep what I have in, and wait to buy really low.

All indications are that we SHOULD rally at least to 805-810. If we DO NOT rally to those levels, then it could be a very loud and clear sign to GET OUT! I will be watching closely. As long as we keep bouncing off 742-755 levels, I will expect a bull rally...but not a 20% one...maybe 5% to 7%.
Click to expand...

Actually, I changed my mind.

If we DO NOT rally to at least 800, I will consider it a sign to get out. It will be a clear sign that despite all the reasons/indicators saying we should get to 800-820, we are not and there is a high probability that people will freak out knowing they are about to go into the abyss < 741...and that will cause another panic/VIX spike-bottom. Watch for it....wait for it.

Again, if we move sideways or drift down Thur and Fri, and FAIL to act like we want to rally, GET THE HELL OUT. I am hoping it is not already too late. The rest of the week will tell the tale, IMO.

Remember, there is little if any reason for support below 741 on the S&P...with only minor support 695-700 based on NASDAQ and RUT. Things are not looking good.
 
Corepuncher said:
Rally in progress! I think if we hold the day and end up at the close, we are setting the stage for a ferocious bear rally possibly to 850...or a quick 10% up from here.
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Agreed - I doubled down today in my 2nd IFT; the daily chart pattern looked very promising - altho I wish it would have finished in the green.

My goal is still to catch the G-fund. Part of my interest in the equity funds is due to the anemic returns of G, something I would not be chancing if we were in the good old times, when it returned 5%+.
 
CP --

I'm hoping for that 820. If we can close there, I'm selling my 33% C stocks bought at 789, taking some tiny gains, and then staying "G" for awhile -- likely going for a nice ride downward :blink:.

Steve
 
well core-p:

I'm probably watching as close as you, and what I'm seeing is the ^vix coming off a peak above 50, where it was late last november. The rate of change charts of spy and ^vix tend to run inverse to one another, especially coming into and out of these peaks in the ^vix.

Nothing says history has to repeat itself - but - I'm thinking the next 2-3 days should be interesting, and next week, very interesting.....set your alarm clock, and fingers on the button!
 
Another thing to look at is the dollar. The market has basically been going the opposite of the UUP/dollar...maybe a flight to safety? Well, the dollar continues to gradually go up...while the market goes down.

Latest model output...just a few matches so highly skewed. What you would expect...the 1 good match is 10/3/08, the other lower quality matches are from July 02 and Feb 03.

stars_090225.JPG
 
Steadygain said:
excellent move today !!

good job :):d:d
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.

Thanks man, although "we shall see."

I'm a little undecided whether I want to sell 30% or my full 60% If we break out of the head and shoulders pattern and above yesterdays intraday high (above 780) then we should have free reign within the 780-800 range. The 780 level is also key based on Friday's gap down. We just so happened to bounce off that level late Wednesday...which is natural.

780_key.gif


In my opinion, the pattern is clear and we SHOULD break upwards with relative ease. If we DO NOT, then that tells me that people are still too undecided whether this is the bottom, and, we will surely retest and break again soon. So in my opinion, today is a good day to sell either way...a short covering rally to 800 into the close or if we break down because if we DO break down, we will be going much lower, so it'll be good to be out. I am just hoping for a close > 770 so I can say I made a profit. :D
 
I have that sell feeling (like maybe stocks aren't going to break out today or Friday). I'm also concerned we haven't been able to break 780. However...we might break it in the afternoon. If we don't, then I would not be a holder on Friday. If we break out...I would expect another positive day on Friday and then pack it up and go back to safety. Decisions...Decisions. Luckily, we have another 21 minutes to decide. As it stands right now, I'll be back to safety if I don't see us break out above 780 in the next 21 minutes. :suspicious:

Update
100 Percent G Reality and Imaginary. Still believe we will break out this afternoon but came to the conclusion that if we do...big big rally will take us up to 795. So opted to exit on winnings. However...if I'm wrong...don't won't to be in for Friday anyway. :)
 
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I'm going 100G I guess. I think there is a good shot we go lower at some point next week, and then we can buy lower yet.

I don't like how we keep bouncing off 780, but given how whipsaw-y we have been, we could easily close on the highs.

My personal goal is for us to close above 770.05...if we do, I will profit, and there will be much rejoicing.
 
Corepuncher said:
we could easily close on the highs.

My personal goal is for us to close above 770.05...if we do, I will profit, and there will be much rejoicing.
Click to expand...

You will likely be celebrating then

I think something will happen mid afternoon that sends things flying

and will close above 780.


Then settle again tomorrow :cool:
 
Steadygain said:
You will likely be celebrating then

I think something will happen mid afternoon that sends things flying

and will close above 780.


Then settle again tomorrow :cool:
Click to expand...

Man I hope you are right... I hate being wrong! Make it close >770 please :) If you do not make it close > 770, I will never forgive you
 
I'm right there with core-p and felix-t-c: averaging out starting today

I hereby put the boogy on the Bear!!!
Boogie on the Bear!!!
Boogie on the Bear!!!
Boogie on the Bear!!!
 
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