Corepuncher's Account Talk

[steveg]

CP --

Whew!!

 

[Corepuncher]

I've been listening to a lot of Dragonforce lately. I'm a drummer so I really did it and think it's technically awesome! They sound out of the 80s...but are brand new...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nVSYt3c0jw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNtmmw5XG94

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgvPrsb8TMs


I just ordered some Tama Iron Cobra bass drum pedals...we'll see if that allows me to do 32nd notes on the bass drum!

PS...Not sure why it keeps showing 2 of the same video, I only typed 1 link??

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Yeah! Shred is not dead. That tempo is insane! A lot of influence from my favorite players such as Malmsteen, Petrucci, Bettencourt. Nice speed picking techniques, sweep arpeggios, and two handed tapping. Makes me want to get out the axe and shred.

 

[Gumby]

I've also noticed that, roughly, 20% seems to be a magic number. Big bear rallies seem to top out 20-25%. But it also seems to work in the inverse...drops of about 20% or so seem to be good times for a short term rally catch. A 20% downturn from our "recent" top of 943 would put us around 753...which coincidentaly, is near the 741 Nov low. That level, IMO, may be a good one to catch a rally at. However, I don't think it will last, and we will ultimately breach that mark to the downside. Be quick or be dead.

CP,

Great call from your earlier post. Do you think we can get a 10% bounce with all the bank fear going on?

 

[Corepuncher]

CP, Great call from your earlier post. Do you think we can get a 10% bounce with all the bank fear going on?

I'm not sure 10% is achieveable over the very near term.

I think a realistic target would be 815. That is both

1) a 50% retracement from the 2/9 high to the low on 2/20, and
2) near the 20 day SMA. 815 would mean a break of the critical 805 as well as psychological 800.

Really, 800-815 is a good time to sell, IMO! That is only a move of 30-45 S&P points, which could happen in a single day if there is a big short cover. Maybe it will happen this week? I hope so! Monday is blank on the Economic Calendar so maybe we can muster a rally!

This is the last week in February. Once the market closes on Friday, the next open will be in March! I can only sell for the rest of the month.

Optimally, I would like to see a rebound to 815-825 this week, then a fail at the 20 day SMA during the first week in March. That way I can buy lower again (if I choose to risk it again...still long term bearish).

I close on my refi Monday, 4.75% 30 yr fixed, 0/0. I guess I lucked out and hit the bottom in rates...in part due to SteveG keeping me informed. Thanks again Steveg!

 

[tsptalk]

PS...Not sure why it keeps showing 2 of the same video, I only typed 1 link??

I tried to fix this but I seemed to have made it worse. I'm not sure what up with these videos. We have had other post more than one in a post, so perhaps there's something about these vids??

Sorry about that.

 

[Gumby]

Thanks CP,

I may sell out today if we get a good bounce.

You got a great rate on your 30yr refi. That is the rate for a 15 yr around here.

 

[Corepuncher]

An "ensemble" S&P forecast graphic produced by a coworker. A total of 17 meteorologists are included in the survey.

I don't necessarily look at the purple/Dec 31st prediction, since there is a large spread due to the fact that you don't know if we'll close near high or low.

So you can see the mean "MIN" value for the rest of the year is just under 641, while the mean "MAX" is around 914.

 

[Corepuncher]

We seem to have formed a mini-inverted head and shoulders pattern and we are currently in the "right shoulder." If we can hold 760 for most of the day, I think we COULD close in the 780s.

One thing that has me spooked is how weak the NASDAQ is on a relative basis. I have been saying for some time that that would be a bad sign as the NASDAQ is the market leader as of late.

If I sold today it would be because of emotions. Like Oscar says, "Emotions are Out." I will try and stick with my target of 800-815. If we go substantially lower, well, I have 40% dry powder to use next week. As of 940 am...looks like we are trying to head lower...but it's all early in the day which is good for a higher close.

The charts to me look as if we could spend the rest of the week in the 780-800 range...making last Friday look like a "bottom." I just do not see any way we do not break 741 and go lower...this crisis is a lot worse than anything before. Still, there are a lot of people in the market that will be HOPING to get higher, maybe 850ish but I for one do not believe that will occur.

The next failed rally and ensuing down leg will be a break of the Nov lows on the S&P...into the lower 700s or even 600s. I predict this rally to get cut short between 815-835...but I will likely chicken out short of those levels...closer to 800.

 

[350zCommTech]

We seem to have formed a mini-inverted head and shoulders pattern and we are currently in the "right shoulder." If we can hold 760's for most of the day, I think we COULD close in the 780s.

I don't see much of a left shoulder. We might be forming a head right now.

 

[Corepuncher]

I don't see much of a left shoulder. We might be forming a head right now.

You have to look at the 15 minute or hourly chart over the last 2 days...

 

[350zCommTech]

You have to look at the 15 minute or hourly chart over the last 2 days...

I did. It's a little bit of a stretch, IMO.

 

[Steadygain]

The next failed rally and ensuing down leg will be a break of the Nov lows on the S&P...into the lower 700s or even 600s.

I second that.

All in agreement - so signify by going to G

 

[Gumby]

I second that.

All in agreement - so signify by going to G

Brother, I am getting ready to pull the trigger.....but I think it is best for me to hold on another day or two.

 

[Steadygain]

Brother, I am getting ready to pull the trigger.....but I think it is best for me to hold on another day or two.

From the bottom of my heart - I HOPE THE BULK OF THE MB makes it above the water. It's a very tough place to be in and I know exactly how you feel.

 

[mojo]

I'm confident those that got in today will see a nice 1 day bounce on Mon barring any catastrophic news over the weekend. I tried to use my last IFT to get in 100% C over the phone at 11:55. I was on the airport shuttle and got disconnected before getting a live person. Oh well may end up being for the best. Good luck to those that jumped in.

Thank you providence! Hope I'm not speaking to soon.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thank you providence! Hope I'm not speaking to soon.

Somebody loves you.

 

[Corepuncher]

Mondays as of late have not been very good. I'm wondering if next Monday will be a good day to buy. We just never know with these stupid IFT limits. I get the feeling a day of reckoning is very, very near.

Wish I would have waited until Monday, oh well. :suspicious: Stupid noon eastern limit!

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Wish I would have waited until Monday, oh well. :suspicious: Stupid noon eastern limit!

I dipped my toe in a little today. Tomorrow I'll probably wish I went all in!

 

[Boghie]

Maybe use last IFT to dip a toe...

I kinda like watching the Battle of Britain raging overhead with only 15% in the game.

But, do I feel lucky...

Punk:nuts:

I think I am going to watch the markets a bit tomorrow and see if there is a bit of a mood change. If so, maybe a 15% bump into the C/S. Maybe not. Probably time to start DCAing back into the stock funds. The two IFT limit puts a crimp into even that plan… Can’t just waste my final forward February IFT, eh…

Gona leave that I Fund out of my plans for a while. Have you all seen Gordon Brown lately - he ain't making anybody think of Flash Gordon, eh...