Corepuncher's Account Talk

[felixthecat]

Well, the time has come, a market crash coming. This trading continues to indicate a market crash coming on Friday. I thought it was going to be today. The train that has been in slow motion is indicating light ahead of it. That light is a massive train inbound at full speed. Expect several victims tomorrow. Only hope is a recovery Friday afternoon.

 

[Steadygain]

Well, the time has come, a market crash coming. This trading continues to indicate a market crash coming on Friday. I thought it was going to be today. The train that has been in slow motion is indicating light ahead of it. That light is a massive train inbound at full speed. Expect several victims tomorrow. Only hope is a recovery Friday afternoon.

That's how I see it too :worried: and feel very lucky I wasn't hurt more.

BUT - for some odd reason I thought today would be the brief 'pop' especially the way it started off - before the BIG DROP.

 

[Birchtree]

I really don't think you will see much of a crash - most of the emotionally clad sellers have already vacated the premises. Where is Timmy? He needs to lie to us and give this market some confidence.

 

[Corepuncher]

Well, the time has come, a market crash coming. This trading continues to indicate a market crash coming on Friday. I thought it was going to be today. The train that has been in slow motion is indicating light ahead of it. That light is a massive train inbound at full speed. Expect several victims tomorrow. Only hope is a recovery Friday afternoon.

I am getting the feeling that we are on the cusp of another "October 08 - like" event. Staying oversold...and we keep going down. Crashes usually develop from oversold conditions, not bounces.

I see no reason to buy, except for purely technical reasons such as a bounce off a previous low. Million dollar question...will we bounce off 741, or blast through it?

My plan has always been to buy 50% stocks just above the November lows of 741. Given an average daily range of 20-40 pts, that means on a down day where we are in the 760s. I am GUESSING that enough people are putting orders in at a "safe" distance above 741. Maybe 760?? 750???

Anyway, if a turnaround occurs intraday and we close up, chances are even if you buy a bit high, we will have 1-2 days of follow-through.

If you buy in near that level, and the next couple days we just go sideways with no bounce, I would get back out.

I know it is risky to buy in right now, but I'm going to bank on the fact that enough people are looking at that 741 level to result in a small bounce. Worst case scenario, I buy 50% C and the market continues down...in which case I can use my other 50% to buy in much lower. My last sell price was upper 800s, so hey, no matter what it's a big profit. Problem is, that thinking got me KILLED last October. Thus...the patience, which appears to be paying off. I wanna see the VIX break out above 50-55. Until we get a little more fear/panic, I'm not sure what will stop the selling. Confidence is lost.

 

[350zCommTech]

I am getting the feeling that we are on the cusp of another "October 08 - like" event. Staying oversold...and we keep going down. Crashes usually develop from oversold conditions, not bounces.

I see no reason to buy, except for purely technical reasons such as a bounce off a previous low. Million dollar question...will we bounce off 741, or blast through it?

My plan has always been to buy 50% stocks just above the November lows of 741. Given an average daily range of 20-40 pts, that means on a down day where we are in the 760s. I am GUESSING that enough people are putting orders in at a "safe" distance above 741. Maybe 760?? 750???

Anyway, if a turnaround occurs intraday and we close up, chances are even if you buy a bit high, we will have 1-2 days of follow-through.

If you buy in near that level, and the next couple days we just go sideways with no bounce, I would get back out.

I know it is risky to buy in right now, but I'm going to bank of the fact that enough people are looking at that 741 level to result in a small bounce. Worst case scenario, I buy 50% C and the market continues down...in which case I can use my other 50% to buy in much lower. My last sell price was upper 800s, so hey, no matter what it's a big profit. Problem is, that thinking got me KILLED last October. Thus...the patience, which appears to be paying off. I wanna see the VIX break out above 50-55. Until we get a little more fear/panic, I'm not sure what will stop the selling. Confidence is lost.

Wow! Your first paragraph is dead on. Excellent commentary CP. Reputation point added.

 

[JTH]

Thus...the patience, which appears to be paying off. I wanna see the VIX break out above 50-55. Until we get a little more fear/panic, I'm not sure what will stop the selling. Confidence is lost.

Great comments CP, I've made the word "patience" my mantra for this month. Doesn't seem any of the TSP funds are working this month...:suspicious:

 

[felixthecat]

Great thoughts CP. I have a major concern with anemic volume. I don't see any capitulation. All I see is an orderly controlled market stepdown. A painfully slow sell off. I agree that before we reach S&P lows we will probably bounce. Before the bounce, something is going to spook the markets to drive the volume to capitulation. If I had to guess, I would say the unusual trading volume in BAC today might be the catalyst if there is some catastrophic news coming. We could also see Citigroup pull a Grim Reaper. :worried:


I believe the cat will be out of the bag tomorrow. Prepare your powder. Prepare for a market shocker. The Dow could swing to 6975 and we push through S&P November lows.

 

[Corepuncher]

Wanna see something cool?

TOP: Last 5 days S&P
Bottom: Last 5 months S&P

 

[350zCommTech]

Wanna see something cool?


TOP: Last 5 days S&P
Bottom: Last 5 months S&P

Sure, how about a chart of the next 5 days and the next 5 months?

 

[Corepuncher]

Sure, how about a chart of the next 5 days and the next 5 months?

Here it is:

I'm starting to think that you should NOT BUY STOCKS until the VIX SPIKES AGAIN. Until the VIX spikes, I just don't see us stopping this downward cascade in the charts. As you can see...the VIX is currently LAME:

It will likely build with time but hey, what do I know. It could spike to 100 friday...or monday. Mondays as of late have not been very good. I'm wondering if next Monday will be a good day to buy. We just never know with these stupid IFT limits. I get the feeling a day of reckoning is very, very near.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm starting to think that you should NOT BUY STOCKS until the VIX SPIKES AGAIN. Until the VIX spikes, I just don't see us stopping this downward cascade in the charts. As you can see...the VIX is currently LAME:


It will likely build with time but hey, what do I know. It could spike to 100 friday...or monday. Mondays as of late have not been very good. I'm wondering if next Monday will be a good day to buy. We just never know with these stupid IFT limits. I get the feeling a day of reckoning is very, very near.

Yup, I agree about the VIX. Strange move today. I guess its due to folks thinking it's going bounce soon and trying to get ahead of a double bottom. Not enough fear out there. A few of our leaders have already jumped in. I came very close to getting in today. The markets are oversold, but not extremely oversold. I would like to buy in on a 400 point down day.

 

[Uptrend]

Corepuncher: What you are describing is a divergent condition. Normally the VIX moves up as the spx (market) moves down. However, over the past couple of weeks the vix is moving down as the spx is moving down. This divergent condition is one indicator that $ green $ will appear soon.

 

[Corepuncher]

I hope you are right Uptrend, since I just bought 60% C

I thought about doing F instead of G, but I don't like how F is behaving...it seems like even with the market down, it is not responding that well.

 

[mojo]

I'm confident those that got in today will see a nice 1 day bounce on Mon barring any catastrophic news over the weekend. I tried to use my last IFT to get in 100% C over the phone at 11:55. I was on the airport shuttle and got disconnected before getting a live person. Oh well may end up being for the best. Good luck to those that jumped in.

 

[Corepuncher]

Well, we did not totally roll over today as banks turned around. Good job PPT!

770...I'm fairly happy with my entry point @ 60% C. Looking for a rise to 805 or so at least.

You have to be impressed with the NASDAQ...you just have to. It refuses to break to new 2009 lows. That's right, not only is it way above the Nov. lows, but it closed above the January 20th closing low of the year.

Now that I am in the market for a bounce, I guess it's time for me to read Birchtree's thread to make me happy!

 

[tsptalk]

Now that I am in the market for a bounce, I guess it's time for me to read Birchtree's thread to make me happy!

:laugh: I know what you mean. When I get in (or out of) the market I start looking for the posts and articles that are in line with my thinking.

 

[Corepuncher]

With all the accolades I have been receiving all of a sudden, I went with a "wiser" look for my avatar...lol.

 

[KevinD]

god? :blink: :laugh:

 

[steveg]

Alright...his head has officially gotten too big.

CP -- don't forget that "Pride" comes before a "Fall"!!

Steve

 

[Corepuncher]

LOL, I wasn't going to keep it...I'd end up getting struck by lightning or something! Plus, it was a sure way to ruin my returns!