Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Minnow]

I think the language used was "principle forebearance"...

Oh my God! Stick save indeed!

So, the difference will be deferred until the end of the term. Anyone see a glaring problem with this???

I'm with you 350z... exactly how do they plan to pay for this???

 

[mojo]

Furthermore, doing this will cost a lot of money. How are they going to pay for this? What about the folks that are not quite underwater and have been paying their mortgages?

This was pure market intervention, stick save, BS.

Well I have a mortgage payment due on Fri. I won't make it and the bank can have it. This will be a 1st for me.

 

[Corepuncher]

The low of the day was EXACTLY on the lower Bollinger band. Also 3-4 pts off the 804 support. Programmed buying I can believe. But look, we rallied right back into the 820-840 range we have been stuck in, save for a couple days above and below, since we broke below 850 on Jan 14th.

What I predict, is that some big money guys will soon unload...and there may not appear to be a reason. This will break down the programs and scare people. It is only a matter of time, probably days, before we break below 800 on the S&P.

 

[JTH]

It is only a matter of time, probably days, before we break below 800 on the S&P.

I happen to agree CP, and I'm looking forward to the next down leg. For some reason, I'm feeling very Bullish right now. That is usually a sign that the markets ready to crash...

 

[Corepuncher]

Forgot to post yesterday's stock matches...so it is posted below today's.

I feel like today's end rally was 99% short covering A) near a very key level 804 and B) in the face of a news flash. No time to figure out how important the news is...they panicked and covered. It shouldn't take long for the short to push it down again, and this time, the PPT will not be able to stop it.

For today:

Several matches between 1/31/08 and 3/18/08.

Several matches between 2/18/03 and 3/14/03.

Several matches between 7/19/03 and 7/31/03.

Several matches between 12/28/00 and 1/16/00.

11/07/90-11/08/90

 

[Corepuncher]

The downward bias is intensifying using the historical matches. The ratio of Down vs. Up days is increasing, as well as the overall weighted average return.

I'm always looking for entry points into the market for a bounce, but I just won't know what would cause it to bounce at this point. I'd like to get through the next few weeks and see how we respond to the autos. I just can't see them coming up with a plan to become viable.

Seems like money is flowing into China...and into any US company with exposure to China. Commodities as well. I already feel like Japan...and the China is the new US.

 

[Corepuncher]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg

 

[Corepuncher]

I remember several months ago...after Jim Cramers first "bottom call" failed at 1200...he was being interviewed I THINK by Erin Burnett.

He was asked when the bottom would be in...and he quickly replied, "When the last bank fails and GM goes bankrupt."

It was an off the cuff prediction, and I think it is the best one he has made. When they finally nationalize BofA and Citibank, and GM goes under...there will be some carnage...but perhaps a bottom.

 

[Uptrend]

Agreed It will take a big failure, and any of the carmakers fit. 350 has some evidence that GM is outsourcing to Brazil - probably with bailout $. That is a crime! BAC and C are shaky - a failure there and down she goes!

 

[Corepuncher]

Agreed It will take a big failure, and any of the carmakers fit. 350 has some evidence that GM is outsourcing to Brazil - probably with bailout $. That is a crime! BAC and C are shaky - a failure there and down she goes!

The bottom line is that it is extremely risky to have exposure to stocks right now. Who wants their 401K (now 201K) to end up a 101K??

 

[Corepuncher]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OSh...ticker.denninger.net/&feature=player_embedded

Just a reality check. For many of us, the worst thing we have to worry about it whether or not we have 1 or 2 million when we retire. The way that these guys have gotten away with billions is criminal. The way that the government is HELPING these crooks get off, all in the name of "too big to fail" is even more disgusting. Unless the crooks are put behind bars and punished, this will not end pretty...mark my words.

 

[Corepuncher]

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200902/r335492_1519593.asx

The interviewer looks like a silver-haired Niel Cavuto!

 

[Corepuncher]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y9mtzYTCEI&feature=channel_page

This guy has no idea what he is talking about.

 

[Corepuncher]

Seems EVERYONE is keying in on this symmetric triangle, possible big break. Could it be a self fulfilling prophecy??? I think so. I think the shorts smell blood, and if I had a side account, I'd go all in SDS. Question is...what level will the big cover be at? I think a good rule of thumb is 20% down from latest peak of 870 ish. That puts us right about 700...a nice round number.

I think if you want to catch a big bear rally, perhaps go in just shy of 700...before the shorts come out. That is my plan. Remember, this can all happen in a couple days...40-50 pt moves X 2 and we are already near the target!

 

[Uptrend]

Based on the way the spx channel is dipping (see my post #608), I think the big short-term cover will come just under 740. There is channel resistance here as well as the November 2008 low of 741.02. On the way down there may be some resistance at the bollinger band at 818.06 that was touched last Thursday.

 

[Bravo Sierra]

Check out Denninger...

FX dislocation in Asia

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html

It's a long way to the top if you wanna rock 'n roll.

 

[Silverbird]

Uh oh...maybe it's the news out of Japan? Worst quarter since either 1997 or WWII depending on who's talking, a drop of 12.7% in GDP? See my posting under World News.

 

[350zCommTech]

Check out Denninger...

FX dislocation in Asia

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html

It's a long way to the top if you wanna rock 'n roll.

Uh oh...maybe it's the news out of Japan? Worst quarter since either 1997 or WWII depending on who's talking, a drop of 12.7% in GDP? See my posting under World News.

This might be currency intervention by Japan. The other currencies have leveled off while the Yen is still falling. Maybe it was a combination of both. Somebody blew up, forcing the the BOJ to step in.

 

[mojo]

That sounds ominous.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

 

[Corepuncher]

That sounds ominous.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...n-Process.html

Sure does. He did an update saying the markets have calmed somewhat, but, just goes to show how unstable everything is. Being in stocks at this moment is as risky as roulette wheel at a casino.