coolhand's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

Despite disappointing jobs numbers 103,000 (consensus expected 150,00), there is a silver lining. If you look at the prior nonfarm payrolls, and the private nonfarm payrolls, these were both revised upward today around +30,000 from the previous report (Briefing.com). I surmise that todays numbers will also be revised upward the next time. CNBC is now starting to report some positive numbers in the Cash Futures.

shhhhhhh, quiet upward revisions there has definitely been a shift, remember during the collapse -- the continuous downward revisions on every rpt?

 

[airlift]

Fedgolfer,
Thanks for the reminder. And I saw your dialogue with Nnuut on JTH's thread. I don't understand everything (Re: tweezers), but i saw what seems to be good for stocks! Thanks.

shhhhhhh, quiet upward revisions there has definitely been a shift, remember during the collapse -- the continuous downward revisions on every rpt?

 

[coolhand]

Euro Trades Near a Four-Month Low as Funding Concern Clouds Debt Auctions

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ncern-over-europe-s-debt-sales-this-week.html

Bond Distress Tumbles to Lowest Since '07 on Refinancings: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-since-07-on-refinancings-credit-markets.html

Freight Rates Tumbling as 35-Mile Line of Ships Sails

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...35-mile-line-of-ships-passes-coal-demand.html

IMF's Lipsky Calls U.S. Government Finances a `Major' Challenge to Policy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-s-government-finances-a-major-challenge.html

Reserves Set for $2.8 Trillion to Spur `Intense Tightening': China Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-8-trillion-mean-tightening-china-credit.html

Big Consultant Payouts Hint Insider Probe Will Broaden

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...57550.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Market for Vacation Homes Is on the Rise

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...94652.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Profits Face Headwinds

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...74682.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Expect Even More Fees From Banks This Year

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...html?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_RightMostPopular

VW Revamps Passat for U.S. Push

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...1802186751420.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews

The Arizona Tragedy and the Politics of Blood Libel

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...13818696964.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Obama Shift to Center Takes Business-Friendly Tone

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40990035

Is Law School a Losing Game?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/business/09law.html?_r=3&ref=business&pagewanted=all

The Amazing Collapse Of The Working Teen

http://www.businessinsider.com/teen-unemployment-2011-1

Democratic Strategist Eagerly Pushes Obama To Exploit The Arizona Tragedy

http://www.businessinsider.com/demo...-pushing-obama-to-exploit-this-tragedy-2011-1

Europe Is Sick

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245617-europe-is-sick?source=feed

Gates says China moving fast on new weapons

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2013893018_chinaweapons10.html

Left, right struggle to define Jared Lee Loughner

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47345.html

C.banker urges China to cut U.S. debt holdings -report

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE70902020110110

US shoppers to spend more, stay thrifty-Deloitte

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0920679620110109

Dambisa Moyo: without change US will almost certainly become a socialist nation

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...most-certainly-become-a-socialist-nation.html

 

[coolhand]

EU Proposals Drive Bank Default Swaps to Record: Credit Markets

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...k-default-swaps-to-record-credit-markets.html

VIX, VStoxx Advance on Concern Europe’s Debt Crisis May Spread

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-in-a-month-ahead-of-european-bond-sales.html

Fed's Fisher Sees No Extension of Bond Buys

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703779704576074182514880772.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5

Downturn's Ugly Trademark: Steep, Lasting Drop in Wages

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...74213897770830.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

A Quick Look At The Emerging Market Inflation That's Panicking Investors Worldwide

http://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-markets-tanking-2011-2011-1#

Business would feel the sting of Brown's budget proposals

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-...mostviewed+(L.A.+Times+-+Most+Viewed+Stories)

China overshoots loan target, more tightening to come

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE70A04N20110111

 

[coolhand]

Long Bonds Spurned by Borrowers, Lenders as Curve Steepens: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...d-as-yield-curve-steepens-credit-markets.html

Euro May Fail if Spanish Economy Collapses, Nobel Winner Pissarides Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...end-of-euro-nobel-winner-pissarides-says.html

Short Selling Against S&P 500 Companies Drops to One-Year Low

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-s-p-500-companies-drops-to-one-year-low.html

Time to Dip a Toe in Housing?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41026042

Illinois Passes A Huge 66% Tax Hike, And Governors Around The Country Are Making Fun Of It

http://www.businessinsider.com/illinois-tax-hike-2011-1

Deep Dive Into The Federal Government's Budget And The History Of US National Debt

http://www.businessinsider.com/federal-government-budget-overview-2011-1#

Rising Chinese Inflation to Show Up in U.S. Imports

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/12/business/global/12inflate.html?_r=2&ref=business&pagewanted=all

Have gun, Will talk: Arizona Sheriff Clarence Dupnik not speechless over Tucson shootings or much else

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/was...pnik-tucson-shootings-gabrielle-giffords.html

 

[coolhand]

Spain Wins `Breathing Space' From Portugal Auction

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ed-by-portugual-debt-auction-euro-credit.html

EU's New Drive to Contain Euro Debt Fire May Still Fall Short

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ro-region-debt-fire-may-fall-short-again.html

Illinois business leaders bristle at tax hike plan

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1223971820110112

France and Germany veto increase in EU rescue fund

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-Germany-veto-increase-in-EU-rescue-fund.html

 

[coolhand]

Spain Is Forced to Offer Premium to Existing Debt to Sell New 10-Year Bond

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ancels-auctions-as-borrowing-costs-surge.html

Default Swaps Outshine Bonds at Highlighting European Stress: Euro Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...highlighting-european-stress-euro-credit.html

Hedge Funds Raise Oil Bets as Prices Reach 27-Month High: Energy Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...rices-reach-27-month-high-energy-markets.html

Treasury 2- to 30-Year Yield Curve Widens to Record on Inflation Prospects

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-widens-to-record-on-inflation-prospects.html

Fed's Plosser Won't Rule Out a Rate Rise as Economic Growth Gains Traction

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...e-rise-as-economic-growth-gains-traction.html

China's President Lays Groundwork for Obama Talks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...3801776090.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEADNewsCollection

Obama Launches Rule Review, Pledging to Spur Jobs, Growth

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...88634252904032.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

U.S. Bills States $1.3 Billion in Interest Amid Tight Budgets

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/us/politics/15stimulus.html?_r=2&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=all

Andy threatening a gov't shutdown

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/andy_threatening_gov_shutdown_npq6E83xxfCB6jkpWGlfXO

China Is Only Attacking The Symptoms And Will Overheat Until It Explodes

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-credit-bubble-2011-1

Europe Is Running Fast to Stand Still

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/EuropeIsRunningFastToStandStill.aspx

U.S. eases China rhetoric, critics ratchet it up

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47710.html

China rate hike seen imminent

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_...7&sid=30942295&con_type=1&d_str=20110117&fc=1

 

[coolhand]

China Needs Urgent Guidance on Euro Debt Risk, Yu Yongding Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...dance-on-euro-debt-risk-yu-yongding-says.html

Mortgage Spreads Tumble From 15-Month High as Rates Steady: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...onth-high-as-rates-steady-credit-markets.html

Pimco's Kashkari Warns U.S. May Face Debt Crisis Without Reduced Spending

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ace-debt-crisis-without-reduced-spending.html

Volcker Rule Should Be ‘Robust,’ Financial Oversight Panel Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-should-be-robust-oversight-council-says.html

Ballmer, Blankfein Among CEOs to Meet Obama, Hu at White House

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...s-invited-to-meet-with-hu-at-white-house.html

Thor Enters the High-Frequency Trading Arms Race

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/14/thor-enters-the-high-frequency-trading-arms-race/

How to Freeze the Debt Ceiling Without Risking Default

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...63912388314.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Apple Crushes Earnings, Ships 7.3 Million iPads

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-earnings-analysis-2011-1

The SEC Just Hired This Woman To Oversee Asset Managers -- Guess Which Bank She's From

http://www.businessinsider.com/eileen-rominger-2011-1

Study Points to Windfall for Goldman Partners

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/study-points-to-windfall-for-goldman-partners/?ref=business

 

[airlift]

CH,
Are you considering frontrunning a sell signal by the SS, or do you plan to ride the possible downside?
I ask this knowing that a disciplined approach to any system takes away the unnecessary emotions. Nevertheless, you have been successful frontrunning in the past.

I see this possibility after reading Tom's commentary today, as well as reading other opinions such as today's early post by Uptrend, as well as the sell signal given by Intrepid on January er. Perhaps we are a bit overextended? Best.

 

[WorkFE]

Airlift,
I'm glad you ask, thats what I was getting ready to ask.

CH,
Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts.

 

[Birchtree]

I believe at position #526 (1 tracker slot above amoeba) he has been preening with a 50% G already. I suspect he'll stay hedged until the official signal to sell.

 

[coolhand]

The pros are getting nervous, but many of them have been nervous for weeks. There hasn't been many opportunities to buy dips, so if we have a sell-off will it be met with dip buyers? Warning signs are everywhere, but is it too obvious for sustained selling?

BPCOMPQ still looked rather healthy yesterday, and that's the signal that will probably lag any sell signal. I can't front-run yet as we haven't seen any serious selling and even if we do I can't be sure it won't be met with sideline money.

Birch is correct, I'm already hedged myself, so I'm not inclined to get too much more defensive. At least not yet. For those that are "all in", we are within a couple weeks till fresh IFTs are available so depending on one's risk tolerance and timeframe one may or may not want to lighten up just in case a correction does materialize.

CH,
Are you considering frontrunning a sell signal by the SS, or do you plan to ride the possible downside?
I ask this knowing that a disciplined approach to any system takes away the unnecessary emotions. Nevertheless, you have been successful frontrunning in the past.

I see this possibility after reading Tom's commentary today, as well as reading other opinions such as today's early post by Uptrend, as well as the sell signal given by Intrepid on January er. Perhaps we are a bit overextended? Best.

 

[coolhand]

Unless the market makes a miraculous comeback this afternoon, the Seven Sentinels may indeed go to a sell condition today. I could not "front-run" this signal given the relentless strength this bull has shown. More than once the signals appeared ready to roll over only to see more strength prop them back up at the last minute.

Today's action may be part of the topping process too. That means we could bounce for a bit before a continuation of declining prices resumes. But how deep and for how long? Still a ways to go before Feb 1st and new IFTs.

 

[coolhand]

Bonds at Risk as Moody's, S&P Poised to Lower Credit Ratings: Euro Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ised-to-lower-credit-ratings-euro-credit.html

Sales Growth Slows to Pre-Crisis Levels for Global Bonds: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ates-to-pre-crisis-levels-credit-markets.html

Health Journals May Force Reporting of Hedge Fund Ties

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...cing-disclosure-rule-by-medical-journals.html

High-Frequency Traders May Take More Risk on Rule Changes, Liquidnet Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ders-may-accept-more-risk-liquidnet-says.html

Finra's Ketchum Says Brokers Likely to Face Fiduciary Standard

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...rokers-likely-to-face-fiduciary-standard.html

Spain to Ramp Up Bailout of Banks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...887432.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

The Union Threat to the Democrats' Future

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...82100893372.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

The Repeal Vote

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...73130244618.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

The damage has already begun

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinio...mage_has_already_begun_pzcq1MmzRb3O626H6Q7PqI

 

[airlift]

So far this morning, econ. Numbers look good, with lower than expected initial and continuing unemployment claims.

 

[coolhand]

This is OPEX week, which may keep any selling contained and might even produce a bounce after yesterday's sell-off.

So far this morning, econ. Numbers look good, with lower than expected initial and continuing unemployment claims.

 

[airlift]

This mighy br an opportunity to recover some losses in a bounce tomorow. But, risky!

 

[coolhand]

I'm not taking any risk now that I've got a sell signal. I'm more focused on the intermediate term.

This mighy br an opportunity to recover some losses in a bounce tomorow. But, risky!

 

[coolhand]

http://www.fedsmith.com/article/2713/fiveyear-pay-freeze-federal-employees.html

 

[Boghie]

http://www.fedsmith.com/article/2713/fiveyear-pay-freeze-federal-employees.html

CH,

It's going to be a tough time for we Feds. But, on the positive side, I think the pitchforks will be poking deeper in the sides of state and local gubmint types. The benefits (at least locally here in San Diego, Kalefornea) for state and local employees are better (kindof) than ours. They get a real pension (although I don't like to count on pensions managed by politicians) and health benefits and can retire young.

At least we are sitting ring side:nuts: