coolhand's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I suspect that eventually QE2 will kick in and interest rates will drop and bonds will rally on an intermittent basis.

 

[coolhand]

Europe Staggers as Critical Summit Looms

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/world/europe/16europe.html?_r=2&ref=business

U.S. state dependence on federal funds grows-NASBO

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1517569220101215

The inside bet

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-are-headed-for-the-exits-2010-12-15

Housing is the forgotten crisis

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-is-the-forgotten-crisis-2010-12-15

 

[coolhand]

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=126257

 

[Boghie]

I suspect that eventually QE2 will kick in and interest rates will drop and bonds will rally on an intermittent basis.

Birch, I bet you are wrong on a bond rally and dropping interest rates.

That may happen, but only after the politicians get hammered by the Bond Vigilantes. These guys (and gals) - both left and right - are economic morons. I mean the Bond buyers are giving them solid hints, the voters give them solid hints, and frontrunner states and countries are giving solid hints that nobody wants to buy into their no priority spending sprees.

This is going to be a mess. So much so that the FED can't bail 'The One' out.

 

[coolhand]

Democrats Pull ’Omnibus’ Budget Bill Amid Republican Opposition

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...s-budget-bill-amid-republican-opposition.html

Republicans Kick the Spending Dope

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...43465537706.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Hedge fund cases point to a maze of alleged insider trading

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hedge-probe-20101217,0,3946011,full.story

 

[coolhand]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3ZUQ21KAy8

 

[coolhand]

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/repor...ve-jet-fuel-in-rare-japan-korea-route_1474854

 

[coolhand]

French AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ting-downgrades-sweep-europe-euro-credit.html

Europe Company Debt Spreads Above U.S. as Growth Diverges: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ve-u-s-as-growth-diverges-credit-markets.html

U.S. Sugar Corp. Says Florida Cane Crop Is `Severely Damaged' by Freeze

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ida-cane-crop-severely-damaged-by-freeze.html

Christie Says `Day of Reckoning' Has Arrived for States Facing Budget Gaps

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-of-reckoning-has-come-for-state-budgets.html

Yields Flatten QE2 Critics With Curve Showing Fed End

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...rve-showing-fed-end-to-stimulus-in-sight.html

The FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...748540.html?mod=WSJINDIA_hpp_sections_opinion

Spain's Banks Are About To Get Crushed By The Country's Real Estate Mess

http://www.businessinsider.com/spai...shed-by-the-countrys-real-estate-mess-2010-12

JPM Fraudclosure Whistleblower Emerges

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpm-fraudclosure-whistleblower-emerges

 

[coolhand]

Check out 60 Minutes video on many state's looming debt crisis.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

[airlift]

CH,
I hope you are Okay! I am waiting for your daily analysis in your blog, but so far I do not see anything posted...

 

[coolhand]

CH,
I hope you are Okay! I am waiting for your daily analysis in your blog, but so far I do not see anything posted...

On Friday, I mentioned in my blog that I may not post as much during the holiday period. From my blog...

"The next two weeks should see diminished trading activity as the holidays are now upon us. Unless something happens to really shake things up my blogging may be limited during this time."

Yesterday was a mixed day and not much happened to talk about. Volume is very low and so it's difficult to read much into the action.

 

[airlift]

Thanks for your explanation. I presume that there is no change in the 7 Sentinels?

 

[coolhand]

Oil Imports to China Set to Slow in 2011 as Economy Cools: Energy Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-in-2011-as-economy-cools-energy-markets.html

BofA, Lenders Face Possible N.J. Foreclosure Freeze

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...enders-subject-to-new-jersey-court-order.html

Sugar Rises to 29-Year High on Shortfall; Cocoa Gains on Ivorian Dispute

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...r-high-in-new-york-cocoa-climbs-correct-.html

U.S. Mulls New Push to Shape Bank Pay

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...62540.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Unmasking The Unintended Consequences Of US Central Planning

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unmasking-unintended-consequences-us-central-planning

North Korea backs down over South Korean drill

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL3E6NK01M20101220

Pimco says 'untenable' policies will lead to eurozone break-up

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-policies-will-lead-to-eurozone-break-up.html

 

[coolhand]

The Fed and POMO vs the Market - Which is Stronger?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Fed-and-POMO-vs-the-etfguide-143733982.html?x=0&.v=1

 

[coolhand]

IF PAST IS PROLOGUE….

http://pragcap.com/if-past-is-prologue

 

[crws]

IF PAST IS PROLOGUE….

http://pragcap.com/if-past-is-prologue

things that make you go hmmmm.

 

[airlift]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

 

[Boghie]

Merry Christmas CH...

And, if more newbies join the AutoTracker I'll make the Top Quintile. Kindof window dressing. I guess there is more than one way to skin a cat:nuts:. I would never skin my Muggle though. She has treated me fine over the years.

 

[coolhand]

Merry Christmas everyone. And a Happy and Prosperous New Year too.

 

[crws]

06-17-2010, 09:10 PM
I'll definitely give you something, crws...
The other option was only marginally better - and, that is only a maybe.

I have never had the opportunity to vote for two less qualified candidates with regards to the economy - and, that was when the economy was in full swoon.

But, I think the "Black Swan" thinks he knows stuff about subjects he obviously knows nothing about. McCain probably would have realized he was in over his head and found someone who knew what was happening.

Regardless, I am willing to make a wager of some sort. My bet:

• The S&P 500 will be at most 3% higher on 2010/12/31 than 2009/12/31.
• The Small/Mid Caps will be at best even for the year.
• EAFA will be in the tank. Maybe a -30%+
• 
• Unemployment will be higher on December 31 than it is now.
• 
  
  12-Month Percent Change
  Series Id:LNS14000000
  Seasonally Adjusted
  Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
  Labor force status: Unemployment rate
  Type of data: Percent or rate
  Age: 16 years and over
  http://data.bls.gov/data/
  
  
• Gas will be $5.00+/gallon
  http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp
  
  

And, Liberals will be complaining that the Obama Administration is incompetent and that their Economic Planning dream requires competency. The crying will be deafening – and, kinda embarrassing. (Ok, you got me on this one! )

Those are conservative points. I wouldn't want to go too much out on a limb and lose a wager over a longer stretch. Are you a taker!

Still could go all to h3ll in 4 days!!!