coolhand's Account Talk

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Re the Santa Claus rally, Art Cashin says we've already seen most of it in the past 5%. It's coming earlier each year. (Like advertising is?) Of course Cashin is no Birchtree.
 
This was talked about on CNBC Squawk Box yesterday morning and a US market drop was the consensus opinion FWIW.
 
China Inflation `Fight' May Widen as Growth Withstands Tightening Measures

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...pressure-for-wen-to-raise-interest-rates.html

Default Swaps Jump Most Among BRICs as Inflation Breaches 5%: China Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...st-among-brics-on-inflation-china-credit.html

Moody's, Fitch, S&P Ratings Are Protected Speech, California Judge Rules

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-protected-speech-california-judge-rules.html

Tax Deal Set to Pass Senate

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...15612553175564.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Germany Vows Defense of Euro

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...6011553442147030.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

Illinois Seeks Wall Street Cash

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...076639916.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_editorsPicks_1

A Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/business/12advantage.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=all

As China Rolls Ahead, Fear Follows

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/business/global/13yuan.html?_r=1&ref=business

ObamaCare: Flight of the MDs

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinio...care_flight_of_the_mds_2zWYU1R9DYG4K6dJ8oj8gP

North Korean State Media Announces Preparation For All-Out War

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-state-media-announces-peparation-for-all-out-war-2010-12

Is Now The Time To Call The Bottom On The Worst Housing Market In America?

http://www.businessinsider.com/las-vegas-housing-bottom-2010-12

One nation, under too many laws

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/10/AR2010121007132.html

Why US equities could be hard to beat in 2011

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...S-equities-could-be-hard-to-beat-in-2011.html
 
Mortgage-Bond Slump No `Fun' for Housing as Rates Increase: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...housing-as-rates-increase-credit-markets.html

Baltic Index Falls to Four-Month Low on Excess Supply of Ships

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...four-month-low-on-excess-supply-of-ships.html

Bailouts Test Limits of Taxpayer Tolerance: Karl Heinz Daeke

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...tolerance-commentary-by-karl-heinz-daeke.html

Kan Orders 5 Percent Cut in Japan Corporate Tax to Spur Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...in-japan-company-tax-rate-to-spur-growth.html

Goldman: We Didn't Topple Bear Stearns

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...79612.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

U.S. Officials Don't Get It, We're At Economic War With China

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-economic-war-china-2010-12

The EU's New Bailout Plan Will Exacerbate Political Crises

http://www.businessinsider.com/eu-bailout-exacerbate-political-crises-2010-12

Meet The Anti-Wall Street Fed Governor Who Thinks Bernanke Made A Deal With The Devil

http://www.businessinsider.com/hoenig-nyt-profile-2010-12

Most Shorted NYSE Stocks: Citi Shorts Plummet As SPY Becomes Most Shorted Security

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mo...the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

Failing to Prosecute Wall Street Fraud Is Extending Our Economic Problems

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/failing-prosecute-wall-street-fraud-extending-our-economic-problems

Mr. President, Start Over On Health Reform

http://blogs.forbes.com/davidwhelan...over-on-health-reform/?boxes=Homepagelighttop

Euro has 'one in five chance' of survival, warns CEBR

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ne-in-five-chance-of-survival-warns-CEBR.html
 
Ireland's Bailout Fails to Revive Market for Bank Bond Sales: Euro Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...e-market-for-bank-bond-sales-euro-credit.html

Real Estate Avoids `Catastrophe' With Yields at '07 Levels: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-with-yields-at-07-levels-credit-markets.html

Investors Add Most to Money Funds in Almost Two Years, Morningstar Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-market-mutual-funds-in-almost-two-years.html

Japan Manufacturer Confidence Deteriorates First Time Since End of Crisis

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...eriorates-first-time-since-end-of-crisis.html

Harry Reid's Holiday Jam

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...10447429074.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Belgium And Austria Are Now Targets As Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis Spreads

http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-sovereign-debt-austria-belgium-2010-12

Gasparino: The Government Is Trying To Bust The Mob Boss Of Insider Trading

http://www.businessinsider.com/gasp...-trading-probe-like-mob-case-wiretaps-2010-12

Financial crisis committee in turmoil

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46403.html

Democrats' budget bill: $1.1 trillion; 1,900 pages

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46383.html
 
CNBC program schedulers must have known of the links above in advance because they have put on a real bullish show on Squawk Box this morning as a counter. From Ross, to LeFrak to everyone the show is screaming buy everything, clothes, real estate, stocks......
 
Yeah, I've noticed. Things are getting frothy, but this could go on for some time yet as much as some of us might think otherwise. It's impossible to get a good read on any timeframe.

Warrenlm said:
CNBC program schedulers must have known of the links above in advance because they have put on a real bullish show on Squawk Box this morning as a counter. From Ross, to LeFrak to everyone the show is screaming buy everything, clothes, real estate, stocks......
Click to expand...
 
coolhand said:
Yeah, I've noticed. Things are getting frothy, but this could go on for some time yet as much as some of us might think otherwise. It's impossible to get a good read on any timeframe.
Click to expand...

$tran is showing an 8 month cup and handle formation, where December's actions is just a test of the breakout trendline. Draw a line May's high to Novemeber's swing high, through today. The cup and handle is clear as day. Good luck and happy holidays... breakout and conitinuation is the play until it doesn't work...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p40939558779
 
coolhand said:
I take it you're a bull like the other 80% of market participants? :D
Click to expand...

The bull/bear scale does have me considering using my first IFT of the month in the near future. But i'd be buying back in real soon hoping to be in stocks going into the new year. I'd love to have the sentiment survey give a sell at the same time the $tran and/or QQQQs hit the resistance line in the bull channel simultaneously. Love the $BPCOMPQ too!
 
My guess is that December is going to be a relatively safe month for being long given seasonality and the Fed. $BPCOMPQ is the one signal of the seven sentinels that's been screaming buy, but it did dip yesterday. Hardly enough to get too concerned about as a one day indication, but we'll see how it plays out. I have one IFT left myself.

fedgolfer said:
The bull/bear scale does have me considering using my first IFT of the month in the near future. But i'd be buying back in real soon hoping to be in stocks going into the new year. I'd love to have the sentiment survey give a sell at the same time the $tran and/or QQQQs hit the resistance line in the bull channel simultaneously. Love the $BPCOMPQ too!
Click to expand...
 
coolhand said:
My guess is that December is going to be a relatively safe month for being long given seasonality and the Fed. $BPCOMPQ is the one signal of the seven sentinels that's been screaming buy, but it did dip yesterday. Hardly enough to get too concerned about as a one day indication, but we'll see how it plays out. I have one IFT left myself.
Click to expand...

NY Fed Permanent Open Market Operations Schedule for December 2010

Executive Order 12631 - Working Group on Financial Markets - Mar. 18, 1988; 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559.

"By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:

(1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;
(2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;
(3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and
(4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.

Section 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:

(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.

(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.

Section 3. Administration. (c) To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefore, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions."
Click to expand...

The speech was published in the Oct. 27, 1989 Wall Street Journal.

Heller was speaking of a situation just like ours today, where the Fed is being forced to cut interest rates even though there’s little indication that people want to borrow.

Heller said “instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thus stabilizing the market as a whole.”

“The stock market is certainly not too big for the Fed to handle,” Heller added.
Click to expand...

http://www.jonasclark.com/kingdomcommunity/politics-economy/89-four-financial-dictators.html
Former Clinton advisor George Stephanopoulos verified the existence of The Plunge Protection Team (as well as its methods) in an appearance on Good Morning America on Sept 17, 2000. Stephanopoulos said:

"Well, what I wanted to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets . . . perhaps the most important the Fed in 1989 created what is called the Plunge Protection Team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges and they have been meeting informally so far, and they have a kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."

Stephanopoulos' comments have never been officially denied. In fact, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the UK Telegraph noted when the economic crisis began, Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson has called for the PPT to meet with greater frequency and set up "a command centre at the US Treasury that will track global markets and serve as an operations base in the next crisis. The top brass will meet every six weeks, combining the heads of Treasury, Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and key exchanges." This suggests that the PPT may have been deeply involved in stock market rebounds.
Click to expand...

http://www.nowandfutures.com/articles/20060917management_or_manipulation_tio_story.html
Securities lending, bonds & Fed intentions and hopes
Another little known tool of the Fed used in managing interest rates is Securities lending, and it can be helpful to see what the Fed wants to have happen on the shorter term with bonds and interest rates. It’s also quite illustrative of the strong effect that the Fed has and can have on those markets. Notice how Securities Lending operations have always led changes in interest rates since 2000.
Currently, it appears to us that the Fed want rates to go back up some, probably due to the yield curve inversion.

fed_seclend_bond.png
Click to expand...
 
I am aware of much of this, but nothing is guaranteed when trying to determine turns (whether up or down) in the market. They are certainly not going to pump indefinitely, and the psychology this stuff tends to have on the masses can be used as a stick at some point in time once they decide to back off. :D

crws said:
NY Fed Permanent Open Market Operations Schedule for December 2010





http://www.jonasclark.com/kingdomcommunity/politics-economy/89-four-financial-dictators.html


http://www.nowandfutures.com/articles/20060917management_or_manipulation_tio_story.html
Click to expand...
 
All but 1 Sentinel was in sell mode yesterday and if today's action holds or gets worse, the system may issue a repeat sell this evening. But in a manipulated market I can't vouch for anything at this point. :rolleyes:
 
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