coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Why did you doubt? That's where Birchtree put his 10%.

I noticed that. He's starting to act like a trader now. Not much of one yet, but it's a start.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8_juUy1jbLM

A JPMorgan Chase & Co. subsidiary is among at least three companies being investigated as part of a U.S. Justice Department antitrust probe of bidding at municipal tax-lien auctions in New Jersey.

 

[coolhand]

Matt Tabbai of Rolling Stone magazine had a recent article about this very thing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0kZ5S3bX2EY

Wall Street banks would be held responsible for steering local governments into the kind of derivative deals that backfired amid the financial crisis, under a bill introduced in the U.S. Senate.

The legislation by Senator Blanche Lincoln, an Arkansas Democrat who chairs the agriculture committee, would impose a fiduciary duty on banks entering into interest-rate swaps with cities, towns and other municipal issuers. Lincoln said the provision is intended to ensure that banks don’t take advantage of local governments.

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...3297925612.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_MIDDLETopNews

The 2007 mortgage deal that set off controversy at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was quickly approved by a group of roughly a dozen senior executives in a routine meeting in a drab conference room, according to people familiar with the matter.

That group of senior-level executives—which included those helping to manage Goldman's mortgage, credit and legal operations—has surfaced as an important participant in the Securities and Exchange Commission's securities-fraud case against Goldman, which has rocked the firm and Wall Street.

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...30373566758.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

Free markets depend on truth telling. Prices must reflect the valuations of consumers; interest rates must be reliable guides to entrepreneurs allocating capital across time; and a firm's accounts must reflect the true value of the business. Rather than truth telling, we are becoming an economy of liars. The cause is straightforward: crony capitalism.

Thomas Carlyle, the 19th century Victorian essayist, unflatteringly described classical liberalism as "anarchy plus a constable." As a romanticist, Carlyle hated the system—but described it accurately.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=530543

President Obama castigated Senate Republicans last week for opposing Sen. Chris Dodd's Wall Street "reform bill." Democrats say Republicans' main argument — that the bill won't prevent future bailouts — is false. The bill itself, though, is irrefutable evidence that the Republicans are dead on.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/19/AR2010041904915.html

One former hedge fund manager said that when he read the headline about Goldman Sachs being charged with fraud he thought, "It's about time." But when he read the details of the case, he said he thought, "That's it?"

 

[coolhand]

I do not believe the downside is over. I'm going to continue to hold 50/50 GS and look for a better entry point.

 

[Bullitt]

Cool, and there's nothing wrong with that. 50/50 is good risk management which is something that has been removed from the investment dictionary in 2010 because right now, this is completely out of control. The only profits being spun are from the trading desks at these 'banks' exploiting the 0% borrowing rate IV.

Hey, anybody remember Enron? Remember how, towards the end, the traders who manipulated the gas market had complete control of the company? The nuts took over the asylum right at the ultimate tipping point.

 

[amoeba]

I do not believe the downside is over. I'm going to continue to hold 50/50 GS and look for a better entry point.

I agree with cool's above and bullitt's latest post

My entry point would be no more than the 20 DMA on the SPY (<1,185), which charts as the opportunity in the last 9 months since the inflection point of the 200 DMA and the 200/50 DMA crossover.

I'm just waiting for it (i.e., the dip at least below the 20 DMA); we haven't had one in quite awhile.

In the mean time, I building up my dry powder by averaging out...

 

[alevin]

My powder's very dry. Been averaging back out to G w/new contribs (real account), plus finally boosted contribs to 15% for very first time last pp. Having to pay extra at tax time the past 2 years, due to paying off the house, has been getting to me.

Just waiting for next intermediate signal to get back in. Waiting....and waiting....I agree w/bullitt, but darn it-that saying is true. market can stay irrational longer than.....

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=auoUeDqdr0rY

Greek bond yields surged to the highest since 1998 as the country’s worsening budget outlook put pressure on the government to accept a European Union bailout and ignore street protests against its austerity measures.

Greece’s benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to 8.564 percent, more than twice the rate on bunds. As a civil servant strike closed hospitals and shut the 2,500-year-old Parthenon temple, the EU said today that Greece’s deficit in 2009 was worse than previously forecast. EU officials lifted their estimate to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product from 12.7 percent and said it could top 14 percent.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=TM:US&sid=aC21OcH_D6k8

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded to Aa2 from Aa1 its senior unsecured ratings of Toyota Motor Corp. and its supported subsidiaries. The rating outlook is negative.

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...8120387721724.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

The government's civil-fraud allegation against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. centers on a deal the firm crafted so that hedge-fund king John Paulson could bet on a collapse in U.S. housing prices.

It was a dizzyingly complex transaction, involving 90 bonds and a 65-page deal sheet. But it all boiled down to whether people like Stella Onyeukwu, Gheorghe Bledea and Jack Booket could pay their mortgages.

They couldn't, and Mr. Paulson made $1 billion as a result.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moore-capital-warns-of-euro-zone-breakdown-2010-04-21?pagenumber=2

The U.S. economy could reach "escape velocity" this summer, but markets could be worrying about "stall speed" by the end of the year, he wrote. "We should see a resumption of a bearish market amid the secular softening of U.S. economic might. The fiscal erosion in the developed markets will be a constant market negative that will upend any strong recoveries."

 

[coolhand]

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanleys-cyclical-index-is-much-higher-than-normal-2010-4

One of the quick-and-dirty metrics I like to look at is the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) divided by the S&P 500 (^SPX). The Cyclical Index is composed on stocks that are closely tied to the economic cyclical. This means industries like autos, chemicals and mining.

When we divided these two indexes, we can tell if cyclicals are outperforming or underperforming. The thing about cyclicals is that they, well, move in cycles.

 

[coolhand]

All in; 25/75 CS.

May be early, may not. Last SS sell signal was lame, so this bull needs to be taken seriously. Bearish levels rise fast on downside action too and that should cap weakness. NAMO and NYMO will flip to sells today and should go to a negative reading from neutral, while BPCOMPQ was still rising yesterday. I view that as bullish unless the bears can mount more than a one day attack.

 

[coolhand]

I don't like the I fund. Haven't for most of this year. Be careful with that fund as currency trades are not favorable.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=118521

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aWUolZvh4qmE

If you happen to be sitting on the Goldman Sachs bond-trading floor life must feel horribly unfair.

You did nothing worse than live by the ethical assumptions of your market -- any money-making event short of obviously illegal is admirable -- and now your own grandfather thinks you’re some kind of monster. Your world feels upside down: What was right is now wrong; what was good is now bad; what once felt like winning now feels like losing.

You are probably wondering: What next? What will the angry rabble -- all those ordinary people who can never really understand your business -- now demand that you explain to them, so they can disapprove of you all over again?

 

[Valkyrie]

I don't like the I fund. Haven't for most of this year. Be careful with that fund as currency trades are not favorable.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=118521

Agree, stay out of the I fund until Analyst Sentiment changes.
http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks