coolhand's Account Talk

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adjDxHJO9ZsI

Crude oil rose for a fifth day on speculation demand will increase as the world economy recovers from recession.

Oil traded above $85 a barrel as a Conference Board report tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user, will probably show consumer confidence climbed to a three-month high. Asian stock markets rose by the most in five weeks on expectations of higher earnings at Toyota Motor Corp. in Japan.

“People are becoming more bullish on oil demand growth,” said Serene Lim, an energy commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “The more positive world economic data, especially in the U.S. data, is bringing about more optimism.”
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB0xJFIajv5k

Foreign-exchange profits from carry trades are disappearing as differences in central bank interest rates fail to increase fast enough to compensate for swings in currency rates.

Royal Bank of Scotland Plc’s index tracking the strategy of tapping cash where borrowing costs are low and investing where rates are higher, rose 0.57 percent in the first quarter, the smallest amount in a year, and down from 9.8 percent in all of 2009. Morgan Stanley strategists said in an April 15 research report that the only “functionally attractive” currency to target in carry trades is Australia’s dollar.

Falling demand for carry trades may help the dollar -- a favorite for funding the trades because of record low U.S. rates -- extend a rally that drove it 11 percent higher versus the euro the past six months. Gains of almost 30 percent in Brazil’s real, New Zealand’s dollar and South Africa’s rand the past 12 months suggest they already reflect the prospect of higher rates as central bankers begin to shift monetary policy.
 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...088.html?mod=WSJ_business_LeadStoryCollection

Congressional investigators interviewed Fabrice Tourre, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader accused of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission, as the company prepared for a showdown with lawmakers at a hearing Tuesday.

Mr. Tourre met in a daylong session Saturday with investigators from the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. Mr. Tourre and four Goldman executives, including Chairman and Chief executive Lloyd C. Blankfein, are set to testify before the panel, which is scrutinizing the role of investment banks in the financial crisis.

The SEC alleges in a civil fraud lawsuit filed April 16 that Goldman and Mr. Tourre sold a financial instrument called Abacus 2007-AC1 without disclosing that a hedge-fund firm betting on its decline helped to pick some of its underlying mortgages. Goldman denies wrongdoing, saying all its clients were sophisticated investors and got the information they needed.

Over the weekend, signs of stress emerged in the relationship between Mr. Tourre and Goldman.
 
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...t-since-1990-as-analysts-boost-estimates.html

Even after the biggest rally since the 1930s, U.S. stocks remain the cheapest in two decades as the economy improves.

Earnings estimates for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies from Apple Inc. to Intel Corp. and CSX Corp. climbed 9.1 percent on average in April, twice the gain in their prices and the largest monthly increase since at least 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The benchmark gauge for American equities is trading at 14.2 times forecasts for its companies’ profits, lower than any time since 1990, except for the six months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.
 
http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...go-roaring-right-back-to-its-old-highs-2010-4

The economy will recover more slowly than people want, and that will prompt "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke to keep rates too low for too long. This, in turn, will make stocks go to the moon.

And that would be good news for stock investors for a while. Except that stocks are already overvalued, so when the effect of the Bernanke crack-hit wears off, there will be nothing left to support them. And down they will come.
 
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