Frixxxx
Moderator
Thanks CH, I wonder what would happen tomorrow if Germany just said enough, and left the union.
They're hard pressed to come up with any reason to stay in the EU. If Spain & Italy touch the brink of junk, then I'm out!
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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
They're hard pressed to come up with any reason to stay in the EU. If Spain & Italy touch the brink of junk, then I'm out!
Frixxxx
Moderator
When your economy is about to be shakened to the core....do you go it alone or let others try and drag you down further?:suspicious:
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm just going to wager an educated guess here, but the debt problems in the EU may be blessing for our domestic market. All that money fleeing the EU will go somewhere. Some of it is already going into our treasuries. The question though, is how much of it will find its way into our stock market?
I'm not so sure a meltdown in the EU is going to trigger a meltdown here. It may be used as an excuse to force the bulls to the sidelines and turn sentiment bearish, but then what? More short covering rallies?
Meanwhile, the sentinels are at another crossroad and could go either way, but given the spike higher this morning and assuming we have a big white candle at the close I would expect those signals to improve dramatically.
I'm not so sure a meltdown in the EU is going to trigger a meltdown here. It may be used as an excuse to force the bulls to the sidelines and turn sentiment bearish, but then what? More short covering rallies?
Meanwhile, the sentinels are at another crossroad and could go either way, but given the spike higher this morning and assuming we have a big white candle at the close I would expect those signals to improve dramatically.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_UCR7cZPvI8
Greece’s credit rating may be hit by a “multi-notch” downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service if the government doesn’t cut the budget deficit enough or the European Union fails to agree a united response to its crisis.
Moody’s, which has an A3 rating on Greece, will make a decision after the government announces the budget steps agreed on with the International Monetary Fund and the EU. An accord may be announced in coming days.
Greece’s credit rating may be hit by a “multi-notch” downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service if the government doesn’t cut the budget deficit enough or the European Union fails to agree a united response to its crisis.
Moody’s, which has an A3 rating on Greece, will make a decision after the government announces the budget steps agreed on with the International Monetary Fund and the EU. An accord may be announced in coming days.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeVmGTCCcyG0&pos=3
Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating transactions by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., accused of misleading investors by U.S. securities regulators, to determine whether to pursue a criminal fraud case, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating transactions by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., accused of misleading investors by U.S. securities regulators, to determine whether to pursue a criminal fraud case, according to two people familiar with the matter.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akCXyxMY.5EQ
Asian stocks outside of Japan may fall 17 percent in the short term as the Greek fiscal crisis prompts a drop in fund flows, BNP Paribas said.
The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index may decline to around 410 ahead of a May 10 meeting of leaders from the euro region, BNP analysts Clive McDonnell and Ryan Tsai said in a report today, citing their Portfolio Flows model. They retained their year-end target of 570 for the gauge.
Asian stocks outside of Japan may fall 17 percent in the short term as the Greek fiscal crisis prompts a drop in fund flows, BNP Paribas said.
The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index may decline to around 410 ahead of a May 10 meeting of leaders from the euro region, BNP analysts Clive McDonnell and Ryan Tsai said in a report today, citing their Portfolio Flows model. They retained their year-end target of 570 for the gauge.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...4462.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
As investors scramble to protect themselves from the next credit flare-up in Europe, their worries are spreading to the U.K.
Investors bought a net $443 million of credit-default swaps to insure against a U.K. default last week, according to data compiled by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp., taking the total outstanding to $8.2 billion.
That was easily the biggest gain among sovereign borrowers. The size of protection on the U.K. has roughly doubled since the year began, a move that far outpaces the run-up in Greek CDS last fall.
As investors scramble to protect themselves from the next credit flare-up in Europe, their worries are spreading to the U.K.
Investors bought a net $443 million of credit-default swaps to insure against a U.K. default last week, according to data compiled by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp., taking the total outstanding to $8.2 billion.
That was easily the biggest gain among sovereign borrowers. The size of protection on the U.K. has roughly doubled since the year began, a move that far outpaces the run-up in Greek CDS last fall.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ghest-since-2003-versus-u-s-on-debt-fear.html
Investors are paying the most in seven years for options to protect against losses in European stocks relative to U.S. contracts, speculating Greece’s debt crisis will spread to other nations.
Europe’s VStoxx Index, a gauge of options on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, closed at 29.52 yesterday. That’s 60 percent higher than the VIX, the biggest premium versus the benchmark index for U.S. equity options since May 2003.
“Contagion risk is high,” said Justin Golden, a strategist at New York-based Macro Risk Advisors LLC, which advises institutions on equity derivatives. “The market is more fearful of European stocks than they are of U.S. stocks.”
Investors are paying the most in seven years for options to protect against losses in European stocks relative to U.S. contracts, speculating Greece’s debt crisis will spread to other nations.
Europe’s VStoxx Index, a gauge of options on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, closed at 29.52 yesterday. That’s 60 percent higher than the VIX, the biggest premium versus the benchmark index for U.S. equity options since May 2003.
“Contagion risk is high,” said Justin Golden, a strategist at New York-based Macro Risk Advisors LLC, which advises institutions on equity derivatives. “The market is more fearful of European stocks than they are of U.S. stocks.”
coolhand
Well-known member
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?sec=Business&col=NewAmerica
For most retailers, a big boost in inventory is a sign that things aren't selling fast enough. But with Lumber Liquidators (LL), it's all part of the strategy.
After running into some supply issues last spring, the discount flooring chain got serious about its promise, "Never out of stock." Total inventory last year rose more than 50%, with much of that gain in the second half.
For most retailers, a big boost in inventory is a sign that things aren't selling fast enough. But with Lumber Liquidators (LL), it's all part of the strategy.
After running into some supply issues last spring, the discount flooring chain got serious about its promise, "Never out of stock." Total inventory last year rose more than 50%, with much of that gain in the second half.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/04/29/fulds-perjury/
Dick Fuld said under oath that he was paid less than $310 million from 2000 through 2007, and that he held, rather than sold, the “vast majority” of his shares, if not all of them. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that he was lying. The latest bombshells come from former Lehman lawyer Oliver Budde, who spent many years drafting the bank’s compensation disclosures and hiding the restricted stock unit (RSU) component of Fuld’s pay. Lehman had to change that after Budde left, but it didn’t...
Dick Fuld said under oath that he was paid less than $310 million from 2000 through 2007, and that he held, rather than sold, the “vast majority” of his shares, if not all of them. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that he was lying. The latest bombshells come from former Lehman lawyer Oliver Budde, who spent many years drafting the bank’s compensation disclosures and hiding the restricted stock unit (RSU) component of Fuld’s pay. Lehman had to change that after Budde left, but it didn’t...
coolhand
Well-known member
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/ct-biz-0429-auctions--20100429,0,3502110.story
More Chicago-area homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure in the first three months of the year than in any quarter in the past five years. This disturbing statistic raises doubts about the effectiveness of mortgage loan modification efforts and could put more downward pressure on property values.
More Chicago-area homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure in the first three months of the year than in any quarter in the past five years. This disturbing statistic raises doubts about the effectiveness of mortgage loan modification efforts and could put more downward pressure on property values.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/04/29/maybe-its-time-to-break-up-the-banks/
As the Senate takes up debate on financial industry overhaul, there is one issue above all others that is imperative to work out: how to deal with institutions that are Too Big To Fail. The reason the government stepped in with taxpayer money at firms like Citigroup and AIG is still alive and well. Our financial giants are so behemoth and interconnected that should one quickly go out of business, the entire system could be at risk.
Unfortunately, as an increasing number of commentators are pointing out, the solution Congress is currently contemplating will likely do little to change that.
As the Senate takes up debate on financial industry overhaul, there is one issue above all others that is imperative to work out: how to deal with institutions that are Too Big To Fail. The reason the government stepped in with taxpayer money at firms like Citigroup and AIG is still alive and well. Our financial giants are so behemoth and interconnected that should one quickly go out of business, the entire system could be at risk.
Unfortunately, as an increasing number of commentators are pointing out, the solution Congress is currently contemplating will likely do little to change that.
coolhand
Well-known member
Volatility is going to make any early calls very difficult, but "if" the market closes red by a moderate amount today, the seven sentinels may flip to a sell condition. BPCOMPQ is already on a sell and that's the most robust signal. At the moment the market is bouncing back from some moderate selling pressure, but it's impossible to know how we'll close so I can't make a prediction, again due to volatility. Monday starts a new month and I plan to hold my position today to go into the new month fully invested, thus effectively giving me an extra IFT. I haven't had one of those since last year.
Nordic
Member
Unless this market stages a miraculous comeback this afternoon, I expect the Seven Sentinels to flip to a sell condition. Just in time to burn my first IFT on the first trading day of the month.
But I'll wait till the fat lady sings of course.
I've been trying to go into a new month fully invested also, just hasn't worked out for me so far this year. I IFTd my remaining 40% into G fund today, anticipating the possible SS sell signal. Maybe next month I'll get the timing right, will be interesting to see what May has in store for us. Thanks for all the effort you put into your posts CH, much obliged.
XL-entLady
Well-known member
+1 
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