coolhand's Account Talk

[alevin]

Guess I was too lowkey when I posted the BIS report earlier. Getting more attention today.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=265929&postcount=81

 

[coolhand]

CH,

What the heck are you doing up so early???

Not that early for me. I usually have to be at work at 6 in the morning. But I'm off today.

 

[dannyboy]

I'm just going to wager an educated guess here, but the debt problems in the EU may be blessing for our domestic market. All that money fleeing the EU will go somewhere. Some of it is already going into our treasuries. The question though, is how much of it will find its way into our stock market?

I'm not so sure a meltdown in the EU is going to trigger a meltdown here. It may be used as an excuse to force the bulls to the sidelines and turn sentiment bearish, but then what? More short covering rallies?

Meanwhile, the sentinels are at another crossroad and could go either way, but given the spike higher this morning and assuming we have a big white candle at the close I would expect those signals to improve dramatically.

Markets are looking alright, I guess?
Greece, Oil Slick, Goldman, Politics, China, anything could crash everything?
Just Another Day in Paradise?

 

[coolhand]

Markets are looking alright, I guess?
Greece, Oil Slick, Goldman, Politics, China, anything could crash everything?
Just Another Day in Paradise?

It sure is crazy out there. Volatility is certainly picking up again. I'm not sure where the market's going in the short term, but I don't think we've seen the last of the selling pressure. At least this time I have another IFT to get back in.

 

[350zCommTech]

It sure is crazy out there. Volatility is certainly picking up again. I'm not sure where the market's going in the short term, but I don't think we've seen the last of the selling pressure. At least this time I have another IFT to get back in.

And you got out on a nice gain. Another Monday/new month rally. Just like clockwork.

 

[coolhand]

20 most stressed, least stressed counties

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100503/ap_on_bi_ge/us_stress_map_list

 

[amoeba]

And you got out on a nice gain. Another Monday/new month rally. Just like clockwork.

Let's just see if the clockwork applies to this thurs job report; last one was so-so and bought into anyway. Very hard to say at this point what will happen.......in any case......CH and other market timers may not lead the pack; but sometimes the leaders fall first and fast.

Should be an exciting next 5-7 trading days.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUCsY7LGM8qY

Standard & Poor’s indicated that a fiscal plan scheduled for next month by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s government may be key to whether it will cut the nation’s sovereign credit rating.

The proposal will be “an important statement of the government’s commitment” to rein in the deficit, William Hess, director of sovereign ratings for Asia, said in an interview yesterday in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. “Something has to appear to change our assessment for where things could end up.”

At stake for Japan is keeping the AA grade after S&P lowered its outlook for the rating in January, and shoring up confidence that it will avoid contagion from a Greek crisis threatening to engulf other sovereign borrowers. Finance Minister Naoto Kan said this week that Greece has shown the need for Japan to take a “very firm” stance toward reducing debt, which is approaching twice the size of Japan’s economy.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aRYZ8EtLtKYc

When the euro celebrated its 10th anniversary last year, it seemed to be a solid currency. Only a few eccentrics speculated about whether it may break up one day.

In the last few weeks, Greece has changed all that. New York-based investment bank Morgan Stanley is among those saying the possibility of a euro collapse has to be considered.

Next to the demise of the euro, the implosion of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. would look like a fairly trivial event. Of course, we shouldn’t overestimate the likelihood. The deal cobbled together by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund may be enough to keep the Greek trade unions, the German taxpayer, and the hedge funds speculating in the bonds, all happy. Miracles happen -- just not that often.

 

[coolhand]

Imagine that.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYyIJZNkniPI

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger no longer supports a plan to allow limited drilling for oil off the state’s coast because of the Gulf of Mexico spill, said Aaron McLear, his spokesman.

Schwarzenegger had advocated letting Plains Exploration & Production Co., operator of four California offshore oil platforms, to expand into waters near Santa Barbara, generating much-needed state revenue. In his fiscal 2011 budget, the governor estimated $120 million for the state from drilling in the first year and as much as $1.8 billion in the next 14 years.

An oil slick from a damaged well on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico is threatening coastlines and fishing industries. An explosion April 20 on a drilling rig leased by BP Plc in the Gulf of Mexico killed 11 workers and sank the platform, owned by Transocean Ltd. Crude is gushing from the damaged well at an estimated rate of 5,000 barrels a day. The disaster may rival the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident as the worst U.S. spill.

“If I have a choice between the $100 million and what I see in the Gulf of Mexico, I’d rather just figure out how to make up for that $100 million,” the governor, a Republican, told reporters today. “The risk is much greater than the money.”

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_uZRsFHEj6o

China’s stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to the lowest in seven months, on concern ordering banks to set aside more reserves won’t be enough to avert asset bubbles in the world’s third-largest economy.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. retreated at least 1.1 percent after Deutsche Bank AG said the reserve ratio increase removes 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) from the financial system. Developers China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co. tumbled more than 4 percent. Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Co. led gains for drugmakers on bets the government will announce measures to boost the industry.

“The increase in the reserve ratio requirement is still the beginning of tightening policies because what the government has done so far may not be enough to prevent the economy from overheating,” said Zhang Ling, a fund manager at Shanghai River Fund Management Co. “We may see more to follow such as increases in interest rates and policies targeting property.”

 

[coolhand]

http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...or-that-greece-bailout-thats-right-you-2010-5

The bailout outrages never stop.

Of the 110-billion Euro Greece bailout, 30-billion (approx $40 billion) will be paid for by the IMF.
The US supplies almost 20% of the IMF's funding (per quotas). So that means US taxpayers are providing ~$8 billion of the $145 billion going to kick the Greek can down the road.
That's the first outrage. (Why is this our problem?)

The second outrage is that, as in some of the US bailouts, our bailout money is JUNIOR to Greece's existing debt. That means that, over the next couple of years, the idiot banks that loaned bankrupt Greece money will get their money back. And then, when Greece runs out of cash again, we'll be left holding the bag (along with Germany and the rest of the folks who bailed Greece out).

 

[coolhand]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article7115251.ece

Shareholders hammered the board and top executives of Goldman Sachs for gross mismanagement of the beleaguered bank, accusing them of lying about damaging fraud charges and unjustly enriching themselves at investors’ expense, in a series of legal actions revealed yesterday.

In a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Goldman said that lawsuits started pouring in on April 22, six days after the Wall Street bank and one of its traders were charged by the SEC over the sale of a synthetic collateralised debt obligation called Abacus that lost two investors $1 billion.

The bank, which also faces investigations by the Department of Justice and the New York attorney-general over the 2007 Abacus transactions, admitted that its legal difficulties were likely to worsen.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,692666,00.html

Greece is only the beginning. The world's leading economies have long lived beyond their means, and the financial crisis caused government debt to swell dramatically. Now the bill is coming due, but not all countries will be able to pay it.

Savvas Robolis is one of Greece's most distinguished economics professors. He advises cabinet ministers and union bosses. He is also a successful author and a frequent guest on the country's highest-rated talk shows. But for several days now, it has been clear to Robolis, 64, the elder statesman of Greece's left-wing academia, that he no longer has any influence.

His opposite number, Poul Thomsen, the Danish chief negotiator for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is currently something of a chief debt inspector in the virtually bankrupt Mediterranean country. He recently took three-quarters of an hour to meet with Robolis and Giannis Panagopoulos, the president of the powerful trade union confederation GSEE. At 9 a.m. on Tuesday of last week, the men met behind closed doors in a conference room in the basement of the Grande Bretagne, a luxury hotel in Athens. The mood, says Robolis, was "icy."
Robolis told the IMF negotiator that radical wage cuts would be toxic for Greece's already comatose economy. He said that the Greeks, given their weak competitive position, primarily needed innovation and investment, and that a one-sided fixation on cleaning up the national budget would destroy the last vestiges of economic strength in Greece. The IMF, according to Robolis, could not make the same mistake as it did in Argentina in the early 1990s. "Don't put Greece on ice!" the professor warned.

But the tall Dane was not very impressed. He has negotiated aid packages with Iceland, Ukraine and Romania in the past, and when he and his 20-member delegation landed in Athens on April 18, they had come to impose a rigorous austerity program on the Greeks, not to devise long-term growth programs.

Thomsen's mandate is to save the euro zone. And any Greek resistance is futile.

 

[coolhand]

I think this thing is really starting to spin out of control. Domino effect in progress?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/co...plode-market-looks-future-bail-outs-bank-runs

Now that Greece is thoroughly irrelevant, the market just told the ECB, the IMF, and the EMU to prepare another $1 trillion in bailout packages. The reason: the Greek bailout just made it abundantly clear the bond vigilantes have free reign to call the bureaucrats' bluff whenever they see fit. The result: CDS of all non Greek PIIGS are now blowing out, and represent the top 4 names of all biggest CDS wideners for the day, each pushing a 10%+ change from yesterday. This movement wider will not stop until the IMF resolves to backstop all the PIIS ex. G. At this point nothing that happens in Greece is important, although the thing that will most likely happen is that the Greek government will fall imminently, killing the austerity package and destroying whatever credibility the EMU and the EU have left, but not before the IMF and the EU soak up another 110 billion euro in their slush funds. However, even with the bailout the Greek stock market is tumbling: the Athens Stock Exchange is now down 3.4% to just under 1,800. As we expected, the euro is about to breach 1.31 support. At that point, not even the US algos and the Liberty 33 traders will be able to prevent the contagion. And adding insult to injury is the latest rumor of an upcoming downgrade or very cautious language of Germany by the suddenly hyperactive rating agencies. When that occurs, you can kiss Europe goodbye.

 

[coolhand]

Futures are deteriorating rapidly, which should translate into a sizable gap down at the open. My SS issued a sell Friday, but Don's SS system (with some relatively minor tweeks) is still on a buy. If we close down hard today, I'd expect his system to go to a sell. Just a heads up.

One of the things to consider if you're following Don's system on his site is that he is not restricted in making transfers. He does not have 1200 deadlines and 1600 closing prices to deal with the way we do. Just something to consider as I now think this market is leaning towards a correction.

 

[coolhand]

http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/PageOne.htm

 

[coolhand]

Okay folks, you too BT.

I have a new post from stickan and it doesn't favor the bulls.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=118997

 

[coolhand]

Whoa, that's not a typical gap down, that's some serious selling pressure. :worried:

 

[Frixxxx]

Whoa, that's not a typical gap down, that's some serious selling pressure. :worried:

PROFIT TAKING I drew this pattern last week for a friend... I showed her that even with the news of profit and great outlook, how just mere psychology affects the market in May..... "Go Away in MAY"

Everyone that wants out will sell this month regardless...Even with the possibility of another 15% growth. I think many are preparing for the June housing glut which would signal a double-dip (albeit not as deep).

Oh well. I've ridden steeper rollercoasters in the market!