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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
A psychological number. And today's the 1st of September. Not a good combination. A contrarian play? I wouldn't bet on it.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 73
He's still steaming over the fact that his system gave a buy around March 9th, but he chose not to follow it because he believes that 'the market has been rigged'.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
I think his statistics are interesting but I'm never swayed to his negative side - is there something wrong with me? I'm really enjoying that VIX at 29.15 down 3.14 today - this value gives me some breathing room. I'm waiting on 20 sometime in December - then it really hits the fan. Vectorman gave up the ghost of his I funder buy and hold position - waiting to see who gave up the most from today's damage.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
Good post off Trader's Talk yesterday. This trader briefly discusses how he used Trin to make his trading decisions during yesterday's initial rally out the gate. Trin is also one of the Seven Sentinel signals.
"As the market caught the cheesy 30 point Dow push off the 10:00 numbers this morning the students in my trading room were starting to get bulled up, while I was looking to make my short entry at exactly the same time. Put my trade in, they followed me in, while complaining, and asked me if I "was worried" when the Dow snuck another 10 points past our entry. The huge volume spike on the spy there would probably been all I needed, considering what my primary ewave count was coming in-but I ran a quick check of 3 other things. First, the AD line was falling apart, on an "uber rally" out of this mornings hole, uh oh. Second, I took a glance at the tick, it was litteraly disintegrating.
Last, but best of all, the TRIN. Market rallying hard out of the hole, trin at 1.7 WHAT? HMMMM the rally was getting sold into, HARD-and with volume. Distribution at it's finest-and the path was easy to see.
For those who don't play with the trin intraday-a basic take is this:TRIN, also refered to as the ARMS index gives you a quick take on buying or selling pressure, which you will then compare to market action to see if you can get an edge seeing the two "out of sync" like they wildly were this morning. Many folks like to throw a 10 day MA on the trin and consider it oversold if the 10 falls below .8, or overbought if it's above 1.2 For myself, I love the intraday action on it VS market action. Gem situations like this morning can make you a lot of $$$$$(The ONLY thing I trade for, LOL). You get hints of a squeeze on the way when trin starts tanking fast to under .6 or so. Or the other extreme, like this morning-what looked like buying, WASN'T. Was great fun being short and watching that trin flip into the high2's, then mid 3's, and knowing the selling pressure was steady and strong. You can make a lot of creative predictions using the trin in unique ways. Sometime I'll post some of my personal trin tricks that I've worked on for several years. Hope I was clear and of some help-I'm so much better on a mike than in print."
"As the market caught the cheesy 30 point Dow push off the 10:00 numbers this morning the students in my trading room were starting to get bulled up, while I was looking to make my short entry at exactly the same time. Put my trade in, they followed me in, while complaining, and asked me if I "was worried" when the Dow snuck another 10 points past our entry. The huge volume spike on the spy there would probably been all I needed, considering what my primary ewave count was coming in-but I ran a quick check of 3 other things. First, the AD line was falling apart, on an "uber rally" out of this mornings hole, uh oh. Second, I took a glance at the tick, it was litteraly disintegrating.
Last, but best of all, the TRIN. Market rallying hard out of the hole, trin at 1.7 WHAT? HMMMM the rally was getting sold into, HARD-and with volume. Distribution at it's finest-and the path was easy to see.
For those who don't play with the trin intraday-a basic take is this:TRIN, also refered to as the ARMS index gives you a quick take on buying or selling pressure, which you will then compare to market action to see if you can get an edge seeing the two "out of sync" like they wildly were this morning. Many folks like to throw a 10 day MA on the trin and consider it oversold if the 10 falls below .8, or overbought if it's above 1.2 For myself, I love the intraday action on it VS market action. Gem situations like this morning can make you a lot of $$$$$(The ONLY thing I trade for, LOL). You get hints of a squeeze on the way when trin starts tanking fast to under .6 or so. Or the other extreme, like this morning-what looked like buying, WASN'T. Was great fun being short and watching that trin flip into the high2's, then mid 3's, and knowing the selling pressure was steady and strong. You can make a lot of creative predictions using the trin in unique ways. Sometime I'll post some of my personal trin tricks that I've worked on for several years. Hope I was clear and of some help-I'm so much better on a mike than in print."
- Reaction score
- 743
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
I was hoping to post an update to my blog last night showing how our top 25% were positioned going into the 2nd day of September, but the site data was not updated early enough to do that. Sometimes there's a pretty good delay for TSP.gov to update share prices too. Yesterday was one of those days.
I can't show you a chart, but I can tell you that our top 25% is getting more conservative. Here are the new percentages:
Total G fund exposure: 16.55%
Percentage of participants holding 100% stocks: 68.09%
Total Percentage of stock holdings vs cash/bonds: 78.04%
The numbers have slipped a little more. Cash levels rose about 1.5%, while total stock exposure dipped about 3%.
I am expecting a relief rally, or dead cat bounce at some point, but I am of the opinion that the trend has probably changed.
The Seven Sentinels are very bearish and flashed another sell signal yesterday.
While I am bearish right now, I am not looking for a market crash. We may drop back down to about SPX 900, but I don't think we will penetrate that level. If we even get down that far. But in the end, I'll be letting the SS tell me when to get reinvested regardless of when that buy signal actually happens.
I can't show you a chart, but I can tell you that our top 25% is getting more conservative. Here are the new percentages:
Total G fund exposure: 16.55%
Percentage of participants holding 100% stocks: 68.09%
Total Percentage of stock holdings vs cash/bonds: 78.04%
The numbers have slipped a little more. Cash levels rose about 1.5%, while total stock exposure dipped about 3%.
I am expecting a relief rally, or dead cat bounce at some point, but I am of the opinion that the trend has probably changed.
The Seven Sentinels are very bearish and flashed another sell signal yesterday.
While I am bearish right now, I am not looking for a market crash. We may drop back down to about SPX 900, but I don't think we will penetrate that level. If we even get down that far. But in the end, I'll be letting the SS tell me when to get reinvested regardless of when that buy signal actually happens.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
GS actually made this statement last week. I consider it bearish on stocks and commodities and bullish on the dollar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=ajlN4OMJUmOE
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=ajlN4OMJUmOE
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
Two of the dangers in this market now is bottom picking and rising bullishness. The previous up-leg lasted longer than many expected and so a lot of traders may be looking to buy dips (that's what worked for so long) and others who missed much of the rally are now looking to make up for lost ground. Then there are those who are holding on to sell on a relief rally or dead cat bounce.
If bullishness begins to rise as prices fall, that could easily flip this market around. I believe we are approaching that point now, but we aren't quite there yet.
For now it's something to be wary of.
If bullishness begins to rise as prices fall, that could easily flip this market around. I believe we are approaching that point now, but we aren't quite there yet.
For now it's something to be wary of.
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
Check out the NIKKEI (1990s) and the S&P (currrent) overlap graph. The graphic should be under a tab towards the the top of the article. I couldnpt get a copy to post on this sight - perhaps you can get.
The point is - the current S&P has been following swings that the Japan market did in the 1990s - like a road map. First dip on the graph is about 10/2002, second dip is about 3/2009. Will it continue to follow . . . ?? - - it has thus far.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKzgH4hvhh.g
The point is - the current S&P has been following swings that the Japan market did in the 1990s - like a road map. First dip on the graph is about 10/2002, second dip is about 3/2009. Will it continue to follow . . . ?? - - it has thus far.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKzgH4hvhh.g
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
WOW! how close can they be, makes you think!!:suspicious:
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 210
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 490
That is obviously a possibility and is readily seen on the chart below too. But we could still see a correction before any resumption to the upside. We are close to confirming a down leg right now. But it would be just a blip on the radar for you.
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