-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
I know I said I might front-run the SS on strength today, but sentiment is getting more bullish and that's not good. I was afraid of another quick move higher before I could get in front of the next rally, and right now that's exactly what's happening. The SS is not a short term system and does not seek to pick out quick gains. It is an intermediate term system designed for longer term moves higher and these fast moves are making it tough to trade.
The difference between this week's rally and those of the past few months is we are seeing rising bullishness on a rally instead of pessimism and disbelief. That's a prescription for whipsaw. I am not comfortable front-running a buy signal right now.
If we continue to rally today, we will probably get a SS buy. That's my expectation and you can try to trade that if you're so inclined. But I need at least one more day.
The difference between this week's rally and those of the past few months is we are seeing rising bullishness on a rally instead of pessimism and disbelief. That's a prescription for whipsaw. I am not comfortable front-running a buy signal right now.
If we continue to rally today, we will probably get a SS buy. That's my expectation and you can try to trade that if you're so inclined. But I need at least one more day.
JTH
Well-known member
Tough nut to crack Coolhand, although we do (at the moment) have a > then 50% retracement from the previous high to low, I don't feel settled.
coolhand
Well-known member
Here's more analysis to support my concern.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Frixxxx
Moderator
I'll buy that for a Dollar!!!:nuts:
poolman
Top Return 2008
We are still within a Trading Range. We would have to Close the day with SPX above 1061 to say we are going Higher.
I am also worried about the dollar index dxy. The Dollar may go to Hell in a Hand Basket and we are doing nothing about it. This will help the I - Fund initially but wait until the market reverses course and the dollar continues to fall. That will be bad for the I - Fund. The Dollar is in big Trouble.
October 11, 2007 is when the stock market reversed course 2 years ago. I think psychologically the markets are going to remember this. It's written on my Calendar I wonder about anyone else's ?
I'm Playing Safe. I don't want my Gains Wiped out in 1 Day.
I am also worried about the dollar index dxy. The Dollar may go to Hell in a Hand Basket and we are doing nothing about it. This will help the I - Fund initially but wait until the market reverses course and the dollar continues to fall. That will be bad for the I - Fund. The Dollar is in big Trouble.
October 11, 2007 is when the stock market reversed course 2 years ago. I think psychologically the markets are going to remember this. It's written on my Calendar I wonder about anyone else's ?
I'm Playing Safe. I don't want my Gains Wiped out in 1 Day.
coolhand
Well-known member
Check out this chart. It's the equivalent of the $BPCOMPQ for SPX. It does not look healthy given the last two days of gains. I'm using the same parameters as $BPCOMPQ here.
View attachment 6916
View attachment 6916
Birchtree
Well-known member
It's only a head fake to keep you out at least another two days so you are forced to pay up for reentry. But then again you have sworn to strict adherence to your system so a little late should not be discernible problem. The market needs and wants your participation.
coolhand
Well-known member
$BPCOMPQ just won't signal a buy... plus others are looking to go into sell territory ....
go figure.... it's earnings season
It can seem frustrating, but it may actually be a blessing. With our inflexibility we have to be mindful that we cannot catch every short term rally. The folks at the top of our leaderboard are mostly holding through the volatility, so while they do experience the gains on the upside, they also experience the drawdowns. It can be a very successful strategy in a very bullish market, but at this point most of the easy money has been made since the March lows. Another 200 points on the S&P current from levels is significant, but not nearly as much as the distance between where we were in March and where we are now. I think we have another poke lower coming, and that's why the SS is not confirming a buy.
Last edited:
Have you heard anything regarding the new SS ? I have been checking traders talk forum but IYB/Don does not post too often lately and has not written too much about them. Last thing I read was that he posted the sell sig recently based on the new SS, that is what I am still going by.
ballnoutacontrol
Member
Hey cool hand thanks for all the info. I am always lurking on your account talk and value all of your insight. Ball'n
Last edited:
coolhand
Well-known member
No. I suspect he's still working out the details and any lingering issues.
coolhand
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
Yeah, what they said.
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20091008084948PageOne
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20091008084948PageOne
coolhand
Well-known member
Could be. It would make for an uncomfortable trade if it does.
mayday
Active member
Coolhand: Really when is a comfortable entry point in a rising market? This is what we call climbing the wall of worry.
