coolhand's Account Talk

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I know I said I might front-run the SS on strength today, but sentiment is getting more bullish and that's not good. I was afraid of another quick move higher before I could get in front of the next rally, and right now that's exactly what's happening. The SS is not a short term system and does not seek to pick out quick gains. It is an intermediate term system designed for longer term moves higher and these fast moves are making it tough to trade.

The difference between this week's rally and those of the past few months is we are seeing rising bullishness on a rally instead of pessimism and disbelief. That's a prescription for whipsaw. I am not comfortable front-running a buy signal right now.

If we continue to rally today, we will probably get a SS buy. That's my expectation and you can try to trade that if you're so inclined. But I need at least one more day.
 
coolhand said:
I know I said I might front-run the SS on strength today, but sentiment is getting more bullish and that's not good. I was afraid of another quick move higher before I could get in front of the next rally, and right now that's exactly what's happening. The SS is not a short term system and does not seek to pick out quick gains. It is an intermediate term system designed for longer term moves higher and these fast moves are making it tough to trade.

The difference between this week's rally and those of the past few months is we are seeing rising bullishness on a rally instead of pessimism and disbelief. That's a prescription for whipsaw. I am not comfortable front-running a buy signal right now.

If we continue to rally today, we will probably get a SS buy. That's my expectation and you can try to trade that if you're so inclined. But I need at least one more day.
Click to expand...

Tough nut to crack Coolhand, although we do (at the moment) have a > then 50% retracement from the previous high to low, I don't feel settled.
 
We are still within a Trading Range. We would have to Close the day with SPX above 1061 to say we are going Higher.

I am also worried about the dollar index dxy. The Dollar may go to Hell in a Hand Basket and we are doing nothing about it. This will help the I - Fund initially but wait until the market reverses course and the dollar continues to fall. That will be bad for the I - Fund. The Dollar is in big Trouble.

October 11, 2007 is when the stock market reversed course 2 years ago. I think psychologically the markets are going to remember this. It's written on my Calendar I wonder about anyone else's ?

I'm Playing Safe. I don't want my Gains Wiped out in 1 Day. :)
 
It's only a head fake to keep you out at least another two days so you are forced to pay up for reentry. But then again you have sworn to strict adherence to your system so a little late should not be discernible problem. The market needs and wants your participation.
 
$BPCOMPQ just won't signal a buy... plus others are looking to go into sell territory ....

go figure.... it's earnings season :D
 
Minnow said:
$BPCOMPQ just won't signal a buy... plus others are looking to go into sell territory ....

go figure.... it's earnings season :D
Click to expand...

It can seem frustrating, but it may actually be a blessing. With our inflexibility we have to be mindful that we cannot catch every short term rally. The folks at the top of our leaderboard are mostly holding through the volatility, so while they do experience the gains on the upside, they also experience the drawdowns. It can be a very successful strategy in a very bullish market, but at this point most of the easy money has been made since the March lows. Another 200 points on the S&P current from levels is significant, but not nearly as much as the distance between where we were in March and where we are now. I think we have another poke lower coming, and that's why the SS is not confirming a buy.
 
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Have you heard anything regarding the new SS ? I have been checking traders talk forum but IYB/Don does not post too often lately and has not written too much about them. Last thing I read was that he posted the sell sig recently based on the new SS, that is what I am still going by.
 
Hey cool hand thanks for all the info. I am always lurking on your account talk and value all of your insight. Ball'n
 
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mdszj said:
Have you heard anything regarding the new SS ? I have been checking traders talk forum but IYB/Don does not post too often lately and has not written too much about them. Last thing I read was that he posted the sell sig recently based on the new SS, that is what I am still going by.
Click to expand...

No. I suspect he's still working out the details and any lingering issues.
 
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