coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It is looking as though bearish levels are contained and not as bearish as one might think given we are short term oversold and getting a large dose of poor fundamental data. That elevates risk for the bulls and tempers my short term outlook for a move higher soon. The case for more downside action is building.

No way I'd front-run the SS right now. :worried:

 

[coolhand]

http://stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[poolman]

http://stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Exactly ! Good Post Coolhand.

 

[coolhand]

Exactly ! Good Post Coolhand.

The dollar is definitely making a bid to turn its trend up too. The market's rally off the March low is under pressure for sure. Next week's action may be pivotal for the long term trend.

 

[coolhand]

This is a sad video to watch.

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2009/10/terrifying-glimpse-into-america-s.html

 

[Boghie]

Why is Dollar Increasing Bad for the US Equities Market

Why is Dollar Increasing negative for the US Equities Market?

Wouldn't a stonger dollar lead to more foreign investment. I mean, folks are investing in our 'I Fund' because the EURO is strong in relation to the dollar. Shouldn't the opposite be true as well.

 

[coolhand]

There is two sides (as always) to this argument. This short analysis helps explain it.

http://www.gocurrency.com/articles/stronger-dollar.htm

 

[coolhand]

In addition to stocks being under pressure, corporate investment grade bonds are too. I'm getting more uncomfortable. :worried:

View attachment 6901

 

[coolhand]

I have a neutral bias for the start of this trading week. Sentiment is mixed. I'm expecting a bounce, but I don't think we're ready for an outright rally in the very short term. It could be that we're forming a bottom, which would give technicals a chance to moderate after last week's damage. If I had more than 2 IFTs I might be inclined to do some buying, but those IFTs are just a little too valuable, especially this early in the month. I'd prefer to use them for something other than potential short term gains in an uncertain market.

Futures are up in the early going, but will they last? I'm looking for chop.

 

[Show-me]

Thanks for the updates, very much appreciated.

 

[Diesel]

Cool,
Enjoy your Blog and your commentary. Thanks for putting in the time.
Waiting for that SS to flip to a buy then I'll dabble a bit.

 

[JTH]

If I had more than 2 IFTs I might be inclined to do some buying, but those IFTs are just a little too valuable, especially this early in the month.

I suppose I'll be sitting on my hands this morning, the timing doesn't feel right, for the moment this is sidways trading and I too don't care to use a valuable IFT in a situation such as this.

 

[coolhand]

I suppose I'll be sitting on my hands this morning, the timing doesn't feel right, for the moment this is sidways trading and I too don't care to use a valuable IFT in a situation such as this.

I was expecting chop, but not with this kind of strength so early on Monday. So far volume looks decent too. If we remain strong today, I suspect the SS will improve quite a bit, but maybe not enough to trigger a buy signal. More selling should be coming this week, but it may be quite contained. So far, that buy signal I'm looking for this week is tracking well.

 

[coolhand]

Three major markets in seven minutes; Dollar, Gold, and S&P. Great analysis here.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/q4trades/?campaignid=3

 

[CapeChem]

thanks coolhand......so if i interpet that correctly I fund will be the place to be.

 

[coolhand]

thanks coolhand......so if i interpet that correctly I fund will be the place to be.

Not exactly. Yes, the dollar will help boost I fund returns, but since the S&P is expected to decline over the next 6 months or so (by this analysis) I would not be in stocks regardless. The I fund will follow the C & S in price, so if equities do head lower, there's not much chance a declining dollar will offset associated price losses in the I fund.

 

[Silverbird]

Sooo...perhaps F? :blink:

 

[coolhand]

Sooo...perhaps F? :blink:

We'll have to cross that bridge when we come to it. The trend is still up for now.

 

[Birchtree]

See Jane run. Oh, darn this is the wrong thread. Dow up 133.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html