coolhand's Account Talk

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mayday said:
Coolhand: Really when is a comfortable entry point in a rising market? This is what we call climbing the wall of worry.:)
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Entering on weakness usually preferable to entering on strength. Especially this much strength in four days. The wall of worry is also not what it was three months ago. Sentiment is getting much more bullish than before, and that's a problem. There will come a time when the wall of worry will become the slope of hope. I don't think it's coming soon, but it'll come.

I was looking for strength this week. And we got it. But sooner than I was looking for and without a signal from the SS. That's not quite the set-up I was looking for. We have unfinished business below, but the beach ball keeps bobbing back to the top. :rolleyes:
 
coolhand said:
I was looking for strength this week. And we got it. But sooner than I was looking for and without a signal from the SS. That's not quite the set-up I was looking for. We have unfinished business below, but the beach ball keeps bobbing back to the top. :rolleyes:
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Your SS is sound and it is wrapped up with a safety feature that can lead to missing low-lows and high-highs.

I have the same approach with the Forex. I just remember to make my winners-WINNERS and keep the losers-losers.

No system is 100%. If it was I'd be rich. I used the SS (with others) to push me in last week and I was off by one day. I'll take a .5% loss for a 5% gain anytime.

Watch for the next signal!:cool:
 
coolhand said:
Entering on weakness usually preferable to entering on strength. Especially this much strength in four days. The wall of worry is also not what it was three months ago. Sentiment is getting much more bullish than before, and that's a problem. There will come a time when the wall of worry will become the slope of hope. I don't think it's coming soon, but it'll come.

I was looking for strength this week. And we got it. But sooner than I was looking for and without a signal from the SS. That's not quite the set-up I was looking for. We have unfinished business below, but the beach ball keeps bobbing back to the top. :rolleyes:
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I'm not trying to tell you how to risk your money but I know you want to make money. I think your margins are set too wide. We do have 2 trades a month plus a safe out. Nobody has the holy grail on the market unless your the Fed who can manipulate it. What I'm trying to say is that you have to give probability a chance to work for you. Get in when it makes sense get out when it makes sense. I like that saying "Slope of Hope" you quoted.:) The market was at the bottom of a ascending chanel last week. The probability of the risk to be in outwayed the probability to be out of this market. Maybe I just don't understand your SS signals?
 
mayday said:
I'm not trying to tell you how to risk your money but I know you want to make money. I think your margins are set too wide. We do have 2 trades a month plus a safe out. Nobody has the holy grail on the market unless your the Fed who can manipulate it. What I'm trying to say is that you have to give probability a chance to work for you. Get in when it makes sense get out when it makes sense. I like that saying "Slope of Hope" you quoted.:) The market was at the bottom of a ascending chanel last week. The probability of the risk to be in outwayed the probability to be out of this market. Maybe I just don't understand your SS signals?
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I hear what you are saying mayday, but that's how it is when one decides to use a system. That means I have to stick with the system. There are probably folks that don't understand that philosophy, but when a system is having some measure of difficulty it doesn't mean the system is faulty or not a good system. It often means the market is trading in a manner that is somewhat outside of historical parameters. In this case, the massive liquidity being pumped into the markets is being used to force the economy (shock the patient) into life. It isn't working particulary well, but market forces are taking advantage of it in any case.

It won't last and I don't have a problem missing gains. Sooner or later I'll make up for that.

But in reality the system is working okay, but as I've said in the past, it's not designed for these quick spikes and so I end up lagging the market up and down. It seems worse now than back in the May-July timeframe.
 
coolhand said:
I hear what you are saying mayday, but that's how it is when one decides to use a system. That means I have to stick with the system. There are probably folks that don't understand that philosophy, but when a system is having some measure of difficulty it doesn't mean the system is faulty or not a good system. It often means the market is trading in a manner that is somewhat outside of historical parameters. In this case, the massive liquidity being pumped into the markets is being used to force the economy (shock the patient) into life. It isn't working particulary well, but market forces are taking advantage of it in any case.

It won't last and I don't have a problem missing gains. Sooner or later I'll make up for that.

But in reality the system is working okay, but as I've said in the past, it's not designed for these quick spikes and so I end up lagging the market up and down. It seems worse now than back in the May-July timeframe.
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I'm not mocking your system coolhand. I just hate to see you miss out on gains. Dave
 
mayday said:
I'm not mocking your system coolhand. I just hate to see you miss out on gains. Dave
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I know you're not. Really. :)

But then if I don't follow it Tom and Birchtree will nail me for it. :rolleyes::laugh:

I hate to see me miss out on gains too. :D

But I'm more than confident that it'll all work out over the long haul.
 
poolman said:
This will never happen to the upside. I don't see it at all. :suspicious:
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I'm thinking it's a lot like like 1999 and exhuberence just keeps bidding it up higher and higher. Since when does the market make sense? :D

Think about real estate's price wars and insane month to month rally.

Forget about fundamentals. Gamblers pay no attention to it.

But in the end I'm still following the SS. But it'll be fun to see how close this tracks, eh?
 
The projection, if only it was that easy. On the other hand, the farther out in front of you annual goal you get, provided your there, the more patient you can be to see if you get to that 1250 area.
 
That timing point projection stuff goes way out there into the future based upon data I don't have or understand. My old gut tells me that may not be too far off, but also tells me that my gut has been way off lots of times as well as the projections. Miss Cleo, where are you?
 
coolhand said:
I'm thinking it's a lot like like 1999 and exhuberence just keeps bidding it up higher and higher. Since when does the market make sense? :D

Think about real estate's price wars and insane month to month rally.

Forget about fundamentals. Gamblers pay no attention to it.

But in the end I'm still following the SS. But it'll be fun to see how close this tracks, eh?
Click to expand...


Coolhand,

I totally understand you following the SS. I take it that it is a System that works. Seeing as we are in the early stages of using this system with our 2 IFT limits per month We still do not know if it will be a Credible System to use.


I would be shocked if the SS went to a Buy Signal this Evening. :cool:
 
I saw your Blog.

Wow ! A Buy at the Highs.

I'm not saying the Markets cannot go Higher but Damn I hope it's worth it.

The only way I would Jump in Tomorrow is if we where Down 500 points.

:nuts::sick::)
 
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