coolhand's Account Talk

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Gee, it feels like 1400 hours already and we've only been open an hour and a half. Can you imagine the performance pressure that is building on a day like today - 8 of 9 to the upside.
 
There is risk not being in for sure. I am assuming those not in at all lost very little and those all in lost alot. I am perfectly capable of being incorrect but your risk in this current market should be comensurate with your losses and the amount of time remaing until retirement.
 
the three year weekly chart of XLF (financials) is showing a breakout out of the overhead bearish trendline. The price is now above it. How do I know i'm right... CNBC had a bunch of a-holes saying now is not the time to buy financials, they'll probably be on again in a year or two saying fundamentals are ripe for the pickin'... mmm, ok, sell low buy higher, is that how it works?
 
fedgolfer said:
the three year weekly chart of XLF (financials) is showing a breakout out of the overhead bearish trendline. The price is now above it. How do I know i'm right... CNBC had a bunch of a-holes saying now is not the time to buy financials, they'll probably be on again in a year or two saying fundamentals are ripe for the pickin'... mmm, ok, sell low buy higher, is that how it works?
Click to expand...

Yes, that's the way they work it. If the price closes above the trendline then it should be a breakout. Wasn't the big boy's buying the financials on pennies on the dollar last year? Interesting chart for sure.

Steve
 
Birchtree said:
coolhand,

Have you seen any positive vibes from Stickan lately? Thanx.
Click to expand...

He doesn't post much, but no I haven't. I've seen him lurking on TT though, so I know he's around.

Mark Young is using a system he had shelved some time ago. It's calling for a top in the S&P of about 1250 in November (ish).

Wow. That would be something if it happened.
 
What do we do with geopolitical surprises? I guess that staying cool is the best solution in a surprise situation. What else?
 
airlift said:
What do we do with geopolitical surprises? I guess that staying cool is the best solution in a surprise situation. What else?
Click to expand...

The market knows when events are about to unfold in many cases. There are hints. Military movements for instance. Word gets out and starts to spread.

The SS should pick up on this too. We don't need a lot of warning. Just a deterioration of signal strength leading up to a sell. The dip buyers will probably buy us time to escape while internals fall apart.
 
CH,

This also is a comforting post. Should the SS be able to reflect or "feel" the instability or the turmoil, and if we can pick up the subtle signals, we'll be able to go to safety and avoid most of the damage to our portfolios.
 
coolhand said:
The market knows when events are about to unfold in many cases. There are hints. Military movements for instance. Word gets out and starts to spread.

The SS should pick up on this too. We don't need a lot of warning. Just a deterioration of signal strength leading up to a sell. The dip buyers will probably buy us time to escape while internals fall apart.
Click to expand...

CH

THis is a good post. Seems like getting sufficient warning should be the case since the SS are based on market internal data. Not sure if you ever look at Atilla's xtrends blog, but he always seems to be saying that the market dive will hit us before we know what happens. I guess everybody has a different view, but seems like the SS should give us some good protection.
 
mdszj said:
CH

Not sure if you ever look at Atilla's xtrends blog, but he always seems to be saying that the market dive will hit us before we know what happens. I guess everybody has a different view, but seems like the SS should give us some good protection.
Click to expand...

I don't follow him anymore. I suppose it's all about context. A dive could happen, but there's ususally some warning before it occurs. Some topping action. And we don't have that yet. No exhaustion either. Too much liquidity. But the SS will almost certainly catch a reversal when one finally materializes.
 
fedgolfer said:
Oscar, like the SS doesn't think the market is ready for a reversal... in fact, Oscar called for a breakaway gap in the transports (breakaway gaps can have red days too)...

http://investopedia.com/terms/b/breakawaygap.asp

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.ph...sis:gaps_and_gap_analysi#gaps_and_gap_analysi

kind of ironic the breakaway and runaway gap examples are ABK and ford.
Click to expand...

While I'm always cautious not to get too bulled up, I'm inclined to think we're going higher too.
 
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