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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
I,m trying to understand the possible market direction today. I suppose that this can change on a dime. However, some minutes ago the dollar was dropping. Perhaps this is good for traders today. Moreover, FairValue cash futures are approx Dow FV -31, SPX -2.5, Nasdaq -2.63. Last futers reported were-20, -2.10, and -1.00, respectively. Are we in positive territory?
nasa1974
Moderator
Look what happened yeasterday after the Feds opened their mouth around 2:00pm. Market spiked and then dropped like a rock.
coolhand
Well-known member
I pay very little attention to futures other than to see whether they are plus or minus and by how much. But that does not necessarily translate into how the markets will trade. At the moment they appear modestly negative.
I tend to view futures as a contrarian indicator.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Minnow
Well-known member
First off: I'm not coolhand but I've been following the SS's.
5 of the 7 indicators are end of the day indicators so, that doesn't help much with the 12:00pm IFT deadline.
the two intraday indicators (TRIN and TRINQ) are flashing sells
NAMO and NYMO were already on sell...
BPCOMPQ looks like it will be on a sell end-of-day (but that one is hard to tell until you actually get 'til eod).
NYHL and NAHL bounce around alot but given today's intraday action so far, they look like sells by the end of the day... but you really have to wait 'til eod to really know.
I'm going G right now.... this should not be indicating that the system is on a sell... I'm just comfortable with getting out and hoping for a decent entry point in the future on a new buy or, in the alternative, a confirmation buy signal from the SS's
That clear as mud now? Happy trading to you guys.
As fedgolfer indicated... it still is on a buy... but today's action makes me think it will be on a sell... I probably am wrong. But I might be OK waiting for a confirmation signal.
5 of the 7 indicators are end of the day indicators so, that doesn't help much with the 12:00pm IFT deadline.
the two intraday indicators (TRIN and TRINQ) are flashing sells
NAMO and NYMO were already on sell...
BPCOMPQ looks like it will be on a sell end-of-day (but that one is hard to tell until you actually get 'til eod).
NYHL and NAHL bounce around alot but given today's intraday action so far, they look like sells by the end of the day... but you really have to wait 'til eod to really know.
I'm going G right now.... this should not be indicating that the system is on a sell... I'm just comfortable with getting out and hoping for a decent entry point in the future on a new buy or, in the alternative, a confirmation buy signal from the SS's
That clear as mud now? Happy trading to you guys.
As fedgolfer indicated... it still is on a buy... but today's action makes me think it will be on a sell... I probably am wrong. But I might be OK waiting for a confirmation signal.
Last edited:
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Thanks Minnow,
I'd already had enough, so I jumped also. I'm afraid that when the market falls, it's going to be hard.
CB
coolhand
Well-known member
As was posted earlier by Minnow and Fedgolfer, the SS is still on a buy until we see confirmation, which we can't get until early this evening.
Remember, this market can be volatile. What happens in the morning isn't necessarily indicative of where we end up at the end of the day or of longer term market direction.
Front running the SS is not recommended in most cases. And in this bull market I don't see today's action as a message to hit the sell button just yet. We're due for a pullback, plain and simple and the market has made a habit of bouncing back time and time again.
If the SS gives us a sell this evening, that's another matter. Then you follow discipline and get out. Having said that, getting out today may end up being a losing trade, as we could very well bounce tomorrow (or we may not), but that's what happened on July's sell signal. The SS gave a sell and the next day rallied. Had I followed that signal without front-running it, I would have kept my gains.
I did not have good discipline a few weeks ago. I talked about this in my blog when I chose not to follow the signal. I WAS WRONG!
I'll take my chances with following a measured approach and keeping my emotions out of it. It may not always work the way I'd like, but I bet it often will. You can't be right every time anyway.
Remember, this market can be volatile. What happens in the morning isn't necessarily indicative of where we end up at the end of the day or of longer term market direction.
Front running the SS is not recommended in most cases. And in this bull market I don't see today's action as a message to hit the sell button just yet. We're due for a pullback, plain and simple and the market has made a habit of bouncing back time and time again.
If the SS gives us a sell this evening, that's another matter. Then you follow discipline and get out. Having said that, getting out today may end up being a losing trade, as we could very well bounce tomorrow (or we may not), but that's what happened on July's sell signal. The SS gave a sell and the next day rallied. Had I followed that signal without front-running it, I would have kept my gains.
I did not have good discipline a few weeks ago. I talked about this in my blog when I chose not to follow the signal. I WAS WRONG!
I'll take my chances with following a measured approach and keeping my emotions out of it. It may not always work the way I'd like, but I bet it often will. You can't be right every time anyway.
coolhand
I read this article a couple times over today and have been trying to figure out what it means - it does not inspire a lot of confidence. The article (1st para) states that the Fed is "looking to team up with the money market mutual fund industry ...to stimulate the economy...etc".
It also says that the Fed would use mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries acquired during the crisis as collateral for short-term loans from the funds.
My question is: which money market funds are they talking about? I hope this does not mean typical money market funds that us regular folks put money in. Just wondering what your interpretation of this article is, any thoughts appreciated.
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Ch,
With my track record this year, smart money says it will bounce back big tomorrow. :nuts:
CB
coolhand
Well-known member
I would also like to point out that while we are waiting for a seven sentinels sell signal, the majority of our top 25% are firmly holding equities and have been for months. If your emotion is getting the better of you then remember who's making the money right now and what they're doing. That may help you keep some perspective and not allow day-to-day volatility scare you.
If we get a SS sell, fine, follow it. If not, follow that too.
I'm speaking for myself here and not telling anyone what you "should" do, only what you need to consider.
If we get a SS sell, fine, follow it. If not, follow that too.
I'm speaking for myself here and not telling anyone what you "should" do, only what you need to consider.
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm hoping to help you turn that record around. It's not a big deal if you sold today. Don't worry about it. If you made money since the last trade you did okay.
Minnow
Well-known member
Absolutely... these are wise words.
My personal decision was based on how much I like the SS and detest the IFT limits. In reality, all I have to do is wait for a confirmation of the buy signal. October is right around the corner and if the system is still giving a thumbs up, I'm right back in there. I did do some front-running today but only because of the IFT deadline. I could very well be wrong and probably am... but I will chalk that up to experience (or lack thereof) and be wiser for it.
CountryBoy
Well-known member
I'm hoping to help you turn that record around. It's not a big deal if you sold today. Don't worry about it. If you made money since the last trade you did okay.
I'm hoping that also.
I just need to get a little more disciplined. To many personal things going on this year to keep focused, but I should finish even for the year, which would be above my savings total that I had scheduled for the end of 2009. I made a little on the last trade, this trade will be decided at the end of the day. "fingers crossed"CB
turbo23dog
Member
I couldn't stand my guts telling me to move to G today and made the move. Here, an hour later, second thoughts are ringing in my ears. I should have waited for a firm confirmation by SS signal.
ballnoutacontrol
Member
CH, do you need to be a member of SS to access the website?
And also thanks for contributing your insight and opinions.
ball'n
And also thanks for contributing your insight and opinions.
ball'n
