coolhand
Well-known member
Some comments from Mark Young on Trader's Talk:
The Bigger Picture
"Today a friend asked me what I thought about the market, long term. I was kind of nonplussed. Then it dawned on me, it really doesn't matter. I know what I know now, and that's all that's important. Right now, by my measures, we are in a Bull Market. For simplicity's sake, look at the 200-day moving average. Note that we are above it and that it's up trending. There are ZERO signs that this will change near term. Sentiment is showing a ton of Bears in some (but not all) sectors. There are no signs of deep complacency. Breadth is VERY strong. Almost all market sectors are participating. We're seeing no signs of distribution.
Now, none of this precludes a correction. Intermediate term, things look fine, but we are definitely overbought and overdue for a pullback. Short-term sentiment also allows for selling. That's just trading. Investors have to continue to hold longs until something changes.
What's going on here is that the Feds have pumped out a ton of liquidity. The problem is, the economy is so slow and the consumer is so stingy right now, that there's no place for that liquidity to go...except stocks. The time to worry is when we see things heating up. If industry starts humming again, excess cash is going to need to go into more capital goods. That will be the time to look for a more serious pull back, I fear."
The Bigger Picture
"Today a friend asked me what I thought about the market, long term. I was kind of nonplussed. Then it dawned on me, it really doesn't matter. I know what I know now, and that's all that's important. Right now, by my measures, we are in a Bull Market. For simplicity's sake, look at the 200-day moving average. Note that we are above it and that it's up trending. There are ZERO signs that this will change near term. Sentiment is showing a ton of Bears in some (but not all) sectors. There are no signs of deep complacency. Breadth is VERY strong. Almost all market sectors are participating. We're seeing no signs of distribution.
Now, none of this precludes a correction. Intermediate term, things look fine, but we are definitely overbought and overdue for a pullback. Short-term sentiment also allows for selling. That's just trading. Investors have to continue to hold longs until something changes.
What's going on here is that the Feds have pumped out a ton of liquidity. The problem is, the economy is so slow and the consumer is so stingy right now, that there's no place for that liquidity to go...except stocks. The time to worry is when we see things heating up. If industry starts humming again, excess cash is going to need to go into more capital goods. That will be the time to look for a more serious pull back, I fear."
