coolhand's Account Talk

I am very sad to see you go Coolhand. :( Your posts are always a must read and I have also really enjoyed your insights on those things seen and unseen.

May God continue to bless you in all you do, and I hope you stop by often Best wishes and Take care! :smile:
 
But why? Anything you care to share aside from the market? You've touched upon worldly things a few times. Just wondering if such events have taken you in a new direction. anyhow be safe, in His mighty power.
 
Thanks for all your insights and commentary over the years, it's helped me allot. I remember when you said your departure from regular commenting was imminent, glad you kept going as long as you did. Now, where exactly does than NAAIM reading come from?
 
Thanks for all your insights and commentary over the years, it's helped me allot. I remember when you said your departure from regular commenting was imminent, glad you kept going as long as you did. Now, where exactly does than NAAIM reading come from?


That's my question too. Shame on me for not paying more attention, because I'm certain it was discussed. I have been to The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM and it's still not clear to me how Coolhand condensed what is there into his commentary. I haven't found any other good sources for explanation either.
 
So, looks like the smart money (NAAIM) has been neutral to bearish for this current year. And leaning bearish for the last 5 weeks. But this market is tricky, isn't it? I knew when I left back in July that things were going to get challenging at some point and it would not be business as usual when that time came. Even for the smart money. I'm not planning to get into a regular posting habit again, but let's see what NAAIM does tomorrow. My overall perspective is not bullish at this time, but rather quite wary. And the man behind the curtain is sweating bullets right now. Remember that scene from Oz? It's all smoke and mirrors.
 
NAAIM showed some shifting in both directions, but they remain overall bearish (or at least wary). Not a surprise. I would find it hard to play either side with much conviction in this market.
 
I was becoming very interested in the NAAIM readings, but by the time I started to really pay attention, you were gone. So, I'm glad you're back. If you find it in your heart and time budget to explain a little about how you process the numbers, I'll be all ears. Happy posting!
 
I haven't been home to post today, but I'm back now and took a look at NAAIM. They took a decided bullish turn higher today. A pretty good sized move, which could bring selling over the next couple of days, but beyond that they are expecting higher prices over the days ahead. I would say they are now moderately bullish.
 
​Okay.....So I'm gonna post up a few questions here on how you interpret the chart and numbers because it's a bit confusing. At least to me it is..... :blink:

First of all, these "Range Of Responses" makes no sense to me.
100% means 2 different things, 200% means 2 different things, and there's no negative numbers listed as is reflected in the weekly Bullish/Bearish chart where it displays numbers for each week.
:dunno:

Capture33.PNG

This week in the Bullish column, we're at 105, which is down 20 (less) from the week prior at 125, and yet you say it's overall more Bullish because the Mean/Average number is up from 52.69 to 79.72 ??? I don't understand at all...
If you look back a couple weeks when we were going strait up, the Bullish column had 200, and the Bearish column had -100, with a Mean/Average number of 46.68. What does all that mean???
If you could explain just those 3 things, that would be a good start and a big help. Thank you ! ! ! ! !

Capture22.PNG
Capture11.PNG
 
Okay, just so we all understand, I did explain how to use NAAIM in some detail within the past 2 years or so. It is in my thread somewhere, but I know it's somewhat tedious to dig out.

First, do not let all the columns and numbers mystify you. Your don't need to understand all of the specifics about what these numbers mean in great detail. Even I do not know exactly how they come up with the readings in the columns beyond a somewhat superficial perspective. But I only need to see how the smart money is positioning each week (week to week) to get an idea of what the market may do in the days ahead. Remember, this is "smart money". You do not generally fade smart money. They are considered insiders on some level. Professional money managers. Because the folks on this board (TSP) are not "day trading" their accounts, we only need to get an idea of how the smart money is positioning each week. This is not a surgical reading. You cannot use it to day trade. It comes out weekly only, which is great for folks in TSP since we only have so many trades a month. I know this may sound obvious to some of you, but it needs to be said to make sure we are all on the same page.

So, here is what you need to know. The MAIN NUMBER to watch is the MEAN/AVERAGE. Which way did it move and by how much? That is primarily what I am looking at.

Now, my basic rule of thumb when determining bullish, bearish, neutral readings is recognizing (generally) where those sentiment readings fall on a scale. The scale that I use (my own scale) is that the upper NAAIM mean/average rarely goes above 110 (bullish), so that's my upper limit (generally). The lower number rarely goes below 30 (bearish). So, that puts neutral at about 70 or so. That's how I determine their overall sentiment.

Now, the Bearish and Bullish columns I believe have to do with how much leverage these money managers are using. I don't know how they make that determination, but it's obviously part of the survey they take each week among the money managers. The Quart 1, 2 and 3 columns I believe are groups of money managers, but I do not know how those groups are determined or exactly what those numbers are telling us (I think it also has to do with leverage). I don't care about the deviation column.

Let's keep in mind that good traders often play both sides of the market; especially in times of uncertainly like now. So if you lose in one area, you gain in another. That's how risk can be managed. In TSP, the closest you can come to that is adjusting your cash holdings (G fund) vs stock holdings because you can't short the market.

So, looking at this past week, there was a big jump in the mean from 52.69 to 79.72. Well, 59.69 was below my neutral line (70), so they were leaning bearish at that time, but not overly so. This week, the number is above it, so they are modestly to moderately bullish. The higher that number goes, the more bullish the reading and vice versa for bearish readings. So, because they are not wildly bullish (over 90), that tells me they are still at least somewhat wary of the upside. In other words, they didn't jump in with both feet. But collectively, they are still leaning bullish given the mean/average.

One thing about leverage, the more leverage the smart money is using, the stronger their conviction about where they think this market is going. Make sense? So as those numbers go up and down, so does their conviction.

The reading is most beneficial in full blown bull markets with minimal volatility. You can successfully use this reading for months and months under that condition and get it right for long periods of time. We are not in that kind of market right now. It is interesting though that this latest reading is the highest in many weeks. But the reading itself is not heavily bulled up (as I said previously), so we'll have to watch how things go in April and beyond.

I hope this helps.
 
Outstanding information Coolhand! I listened and took notes this time. :embarrest:

I actually did browse your posts from years back, but there was so very much, I gave up looking. Now that I'm retired, maybe I can do some more looking!
 
Back
Top