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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Soon the FED will make moves to defend the dollar and fight inflation.
The FED gave 'The Economic Black Swan' administration years to make financial adjustments. Gave us all years to make adjustments.
There will be plunge in our 'F Fund' on Monday. And, I just moved 26% of my holdings into it on Wednesday. My timing has been impeccable this year. Ouch...
Bolding added. In the end the Fed is a private entity and profit influences. It's not a government agency whose goal is to spend what's allotted and ask for more.
Boghie
Well-known member
Birch,
The use of well guided stimulus from the Treasury was supposed to be QE3.
Our 'Economic Black Swan' took flight during QE1 and spent everything on bailing out State largess.
We are now in trouble. And, my guess is that the FED will move to strengthen the dollar. Remember what FED Chairman Paul Volcker did.
Folks, GET OUT OF REVOLVING DEBT.
Birchtree
Well-known member
The Fed will bend over backwards to keep interest rates low while we are still in a housing crisis - the only game in town is not bingo, but rather equities and they will try to stabilize the markets. Corporations are flush with cash and are busy increasing their dividend payouts. Where else can you get that type of income. And if money does flow from the bond market it's going into equities - what a great opportunity for new stock investors and a golden opportunity for those of us in equities waiting for their arrival.
Birchtree
Well-known member
By the way Volcker was trying to tame 10% inflation with Fed rates of 18% creating a recession. I was around during those days. The long bond was selling at $50 with a yield of 10%, but only the brave dared to buy it. It ran to par (100) with the yield locked at 10% - only a masked woman could make out like a bandit. Now remember that was a 30 year bond locked at a yield of 10%. Ah, those were the days - then came the beginning of the mega trend secular bull market in 1982. I rode that puppy like it was a cyclone.
ballnoutacontrol
Member
Coolman,
First of all a big thanks for all you do for the site. I always follow along with your thread and read your reports.
Ok, so I have a question for you. Looking at the economic reports that are due out do you see an entry?
Thanks, Balln
First of all a big thanks for all you do for the site. I always follow along with your thread and read your reports.
Ok, so I have a question for you. Looking at the economic reports that are due out do you see an entry?
Thanks, Balln
coolhand
Well-known member
When the market is acting this bad, it's almost impossible to know what's going to happen next. The Seven Sentinels are still very bearish, and I would definitely take heed of that sell signal for the moment. I'd like to think the bad news is already priced into the market, but we'll have to see whether that might be true when the overseas markets start trading tomorrow night. Our own futures may tell us something too, but even futures on Friday didn't reveal the kind of decline that ensued. And then there's volatility. We could see a violent rally withing the next couple of days as the downgrade we received Friday evening will not be perceived as bullish by most. That could set up a huge short-covering rally, but that's a risky trade too. If we get one, it may not last. I'm inclined to think the top is in for now, but here's the thing. What kind of reaction might we see from the Fed/Congress over the next couple of weeks or so. Can something happen that could off-set this latest development. And I don't think QE3 is the answer. There will have to be some real changes in how Washington is going to address our debt burden, and I don't see how they're going to do that without exacting some measure of pain on the masses. That's my 50,000 foot view.
The best I can tell you is to hedge your bets.
It's very easy to be bearish here, and that normally makes me bullish, but we're in uncharted waters. There's a battle being waged by the rating agencies and their supporters, so it's no longer just Dems vs. Reps. Someone else has joined the fray.
ballnoutacontrol
Member
Thanks bro, with the VIX spike and the huge volume it makes me a believer in that this may be the bottom in the shorterm, but that was all before the downgrade news came out so that could take us lower. I would expect at some point to see a reverse and rally and I also think the rally will go longer than most believe. All the traders that have gotten burnt over the last few weeks and are still in and will be looking to get out, but this market top and decline has been playing out for a while now so maybe some got out early without too much damage and they will be more eager to jump in. We shall see, like you I can't wait to see the action come sunday night and monday.
balln
coolhand
Well-known member
Here's a post from Don, the guy who created the Seven Sentinels. He uses a new set of parameters for his system, while I still use his original ones, but they track relatively closely. Anyway, these are his thoughts with respect to whether we are now in a bear market or not.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=133068
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=133068
Happy_Trails
Active member
In reading through this, it sounds like we are still on the fence and it could still go either way?
malyla
Active member
Thanks Coolhand for sharing this and thank Don for his work. Don seems to think we will get confirmation Monday on a few of the signals with the end of the week giving us final confirmation (Am I reading that right?).
I think I'm a bear trader as I do a lot better in a bear market due to the nature of being out more than in. Being in for long periods even during great times seems to increase my anxiety level exponentially as time goes on. Not wishing for a bear market, but we all knew the other shoe had to drop eventually. Now it's time to set up for the next Bull market run in a year or so (assuming this isn't a trend change fakeout like summer 2010).
Boghie
Well-known member
CoolHand,
TSP doesn't appear to have executed my 2011/08/04 IFT. I attempted to move to a more conservative and balanced allocation.
So, it appears I have my 'I don't trust the Treasury' and 'I expect a short term political based correction', and 'Here comes the relief rally!!!' allocation of 100% equities. And, that includes 35% in the 'I Fund'. What a joy.
And, to make things even juicier, that COB Thursday IFT might still be in the 'settling' phase. That is, if I use an IFT to get to my desired allocation I may blow both of them within days – the last duplicating the first. Tom is asking me to check my TSP account tomorrow before 1900. Yuk...
Because I use Internet Explorer I may have been dumb enough to not click on the ‘Execute IFT’ button. I do remember typing in my email twice. But, Thursday’s work environment was past Dumb, beyond Dumber, and definitely into the Dumberer range…
Hoping for the best. Maybe money will cascade out of Treasuries and into big balance sheet Corporate America. Go Plutocrats!!! And, by the way, if I get amazingly lucky and crack the Top Ten AutoTracker because of my Dumbererness or TSPs whatever I will make a greedy grab for the mug, fill it with good stout, and sing a mighty song.
Tomorrow - and at least next week - will be a very odd time. How will da'Boyz react?
TSP doesn't appear to have executed my 2011/08/04 IFT. I attempted to move to a more conservative and balanced allocation.
So, it appears I have my 'I don't trust the Treasury' and 'I expect a short term political based correction', and 'Here comes the relief rally!!!' allocation of 100% equities. And, that includes 35% in the 'I Fund'. What a joy.
And, to make things even juicier, that COB Thursday IFT might still be in the 'settling' phase. That is, if I use an IFT to get to my desired allocation I may blow both of them within days – the last duplicating the first. Tom is asking me to check my TSP account tomorrow before 1900. Yuk...
Because I use Internet Explorer I may have been dumb enough to not click on the ‘Execute IFT’ button. I do remember typing in my email twice. But, Thursday’s work environment was past Dumb, beyond Dumber, and definitely into the Dumberer range…
Hoping for the best. Maybe money will cascade out of Treasuries and into big balance sheet Corporate America. Go Plutocrats!!! And, by the way, if I get amazingly lucky and crack the Top Ten AutoTracker because of my Dumbererness or TSPs whatever I will make a greedy grab for the mug, fill it with good stout, and sing a mighty song.
Tomorrow - and at least next week - will be a very odd time. How will da'Boyz react?
coolhand
Well-known member
That's what he's saying. We're getting close to confirming a bear market, but we're not quite there yet.
coolhand
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
CoolHand,
TSP doesn't appear to have executed my 2011/08/04 IFT. I attempted to move to a more conservative and balanced allocation.
So, it appears I have my 'I don't trust the Treasury' and 'I expect a short term political based correction', and 'Here comes the relief rally!!!' allocation of 100% equities. And, that includes 35% in the 'I Fund'. What a joy.
And, to make things even juicier, that COB Thursday IFT might still be in the 'settling' phase. That is, if I use an IFT to get to my desired allocation I may blow both of them within days – the last duplicating the first. Tom is asking me to check my TSP account tomorrow before 1900. Yuk...
Because I use Internet Explorer I may have been dumb enough to not click on the ‘Execute IFT’ button. I do remember typing in my email twice. But, Thursday’s work environment was past Dumb, beyond Dumber, and definitely into the Dumberer range…
Hoping for the best. Maybe money will cascade out of Treasuries and into big balance sheet Corporate America. Go Plutocrats!!! And, by the way, if I get amazingly lucky and crack the Top Ten AutoTracker because of my Dumbererness or TSPs whatever I will make a greedy grab for the mug, fill it with good stout, and sing a mighty song.
Tomorrow - and at least next week - will be a very odd time. How will da'Boyz react?
Interesting times, huh Boghie?
I've never messed up an IFT, but I can see how easy it might be to do it. Especially as my short term memory continues to shorten. :cheesy:
coolhand
Well-known member
Thanks CH for the realtime info.... However, for me I'm not watching, just to stressful.... I can't wait for this Market to bottom so that we may start to recover our losses!!
konakathy
Well-known member
Absolutely spot on! Too stressful to watch every day. I'm in for the long haul, so I'm not going to freak when it falls - it'll go back up. I'm just wandering how the dbl. pair of Depends are going to look under my uniform tomorrow?!:embarrest:
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