coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Odds of Renewed U.S. Recession Seen Rising by Majority of Economic Panel

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...s-see-rising-odds-of-a-renewed-u-s-slump.html

China Joins Russia in Blasting U.S. Borrowing After Debt Ceiling Agreement

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...bt-as-xinhua-sees-bomb-yet-to-be-defused.html

Commercial-Mortgage Late Payments Increase to Record in July

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-hit-record-in-signal-of-market-distress.html

Best Consumer Spending Forecaster DeKaser Sees U.S. Rebound

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ster-dekaser-sees-rebound-in-second-half.html

Wall Street Banks Face Muni Disclosure Rules

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ans-to-require-increased-risk-disclosure.html

The Updated Guide To Europe's Impending Debt Disaster

http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-debt-spain-portugal-piigs-2011-8

Food Stamp Use Surges By Most In Years As Alabama Foodstamp Recipients Double In May

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/food-...years-alabama-foodstamp-recipients-double-may

Higher Taxes And Epic Tax Fight Are On The Horizon

http://blogs.forbes.com/janetnovack/2011/08/02/higher-taxes-and-epic-tax-fight-are-on-the-horizon/

Debt ceiling bill's super committee has lobbyists preparing

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60548.html#ixzz1TxaZfsMk

S&P says markets have discounted possible U.S. downgrade

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/us-interview-sp-idUSTRE7720H120110803

Europe's money markets freeze as crisis escalates in Italy and Spain

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-as-crisis-escalates-in-Italy-and-Spain.html

 

[Birchtree]

I still believe that negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market - time will tell. The bull likes to take as few people as possible to the upside.

 

[Steadygain]

China Joins Russia in Blasting U.S. Borrowing After Debt Ceiling Agreement
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...bt-as-xinhua-sees-bomb-yet-to-be-defused.html

This one was somewhat amuzing.

Gosh, when I was a kid China was like another planet - they were so far removed from what the USA would have considered even having a chance of holding any significant power. Russia, who went totally bankrupt and then came crying to 'us' has little room to talk.

When empires collapse and everything is largely re-organized and the masses simply have to deal with the changes I'd always wondered what that would feel like. Here I mean in reveiw of World History. Of course I wondered that from the ultra security of being a US Citizen and knowing that not only are we the Strongest and Greatest Country on Earth - but we were undoubtedly the RICHEST and our Power and Prestige had no end.

The USA was the one thing we could count on a 'Never ending' - Indivinceable - with Liberty and Justice for all.

We can't stop the changes that have already occurred - that have deepened over the years and that now dominate the numerous aspects by which the USA is largely forced to function. All the more - we most certainly can't change how all the other nations now view 'us' as a result of those changes.

The way I see it - we gave our lives for a Country that deserved the best we had to offer. We were the Greatest, the Richest, and in many ways we set the Standard that forced all others to look at 'us' with awe. We had a right to be Proud - and maybe that Pride was our ruin. Perhaps our view was too high and everyone was convinced that the Changes would be short lived.

'We' did this to ourselves and not only that but 'we' are the ones that most brought China to where it is today.

I live a great life Coolhand. I've got it all and tomorrow I head to the Farm in WV for our annual family reunion and will bask in the beauty of a house and land that has been in the family for over 150 years. I have more wonders in my life than I ever dreamed could be possible and it's from the time I wake until I go to sleep. In the near future - when I retire there is a place in NC that has hundreds of miles of horse trails and on those trails I'll forget what everyone else is dealing with.

I guess to me - in times like this - we need to shift the focus on our own life. We had the very best - especially in comparison to other generations and for that I am very grateful.

'Recession' seems like the wrong word - as it implies underlying stability - strength - and unwavering integrity that are temporarily set back with an unexpected weakness. I think 're-structuring' is far more likely - the results of which will be even worse. In retrospect future generations will wonder how a Nation that long held the highest and greatest position could borrow from a 3rd world country that lived in the dark -- and foster a relatiohship that reversed their positions.

 

[coolhand]

Hi Steady,

China and Russia are just doing what they feel is necessary to maintain their own stake on the global stage. It's always been that way. I'm reminded of that cartoon with the mouse who gets caught in a trap, and all the other mice come running over to take advantage of his situation. :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

Euro Problems Need Fixing Before Financial Markets Lose Their Faith

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ed-fixing-before-markets-lose-faith-view.html

Yen Plunges as Japan Intervenes in Markets for the First Time Since March

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...n-markets-for-the-first-time-since-march.html

Moody's May Cut Credit Ratings on Two Big Banks

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44006718

Gross US Debt Surges By $240 Billion Overnight, US Debt To GDP Hits Post World War II High 97.2%, Official Debt Ceiling Increase Only $400 Billion

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gross...-gdp-hits-post-world-war-ii-high-972-official

Large Banks in Europe Struggle With Weak Bonds

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/b...k-bonds.html?_r=2&ref=business&pagewanted=all

Right Direction or Wrong Track

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ood_of_america/right_direction_or_wrong_track

US Congress leaders agree on path to trade deals

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/usa-trade-deals-idUSN1E77223L20110804

Italy 'to default' but Spain may 'just' escape

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14396557

 

[DakotaKid]

Well Cool, I couldn't hang with you in the S. I bailed 50% a while back, and 100% G yesterday. What are your thoughts on this market? Are heading further down, leveling off?

Thanks in advance for your insight!

 

[coolhand]

This is a time when emotion takes its biggest toll. The bullets are flying and it's just a matter of time before panic sets in. And we're not there yet. I don't know what this market is going to do and there are numerous scenarios at this point.

I think it's important though, for us to not forget that we have a very limited ability to chart our TSP course. We strive to beat the market, but with 2 IFTs and a deadline in this fast-moving action we have to hope luck is on our side at times. There's no such thing as making a "mistake" as far as our decision making goes as that implies there's a "right" decision and a "wrong" decision. But it's not that simple. Everyone is right or wrong at different times. So we have to maintain some measure of context with respect to the market and our interaction with it. Two weeks from now the S&P might be back over 1300 and we'll be thinking we were over-reacting to the selling pressure. Or the market could fall apart completely and we'll be wondering what we were thinking when we decided to hold a stock position. Hind sight is wonderful that way.

That's why I don't trade all of my accounts the same way. Like Jason, I have some buy and hold accounts that I manage with a different style. They can get hammered too, but they're also in the market when things are looking up. I've been buying on the way down in select sectors with my IRA the past week or so.

But back to your original question. I am remaining optimistic that this carnage will be relatively short-lived. Today has the appearance of a wash-out day as the selling seems to be accelerating. But if this is another 2008 then we've got a long way to go. But I'd rather not make that assumption. I have other premium services that I monitor (not here) that are looking for higher prices by the end of the year. That doesn't mean they will be correct, only that those services are forcasting higher prices. This may just be a correction on the way there. So I am assuming the longer term will indeed be higher since I'm now caught in this waterfall action. I am adjusting my strategy to a longer term outlook vice the shorter term one I usually use.

 

[WorkFE]

A smart person once told me "If you missed the boat don't jump in the freezing lake". More than likely it was one of the many reasonable people on this site. Most probably CH.
Do I worry about where we are head, heck yeah. But I missed the boat and I see know upside to moving to the sidelines now. Time is on my side, as of today anyway. Time is not on everyones side. Not all reactions are the same and they should not be.

 

[DakotaKid]

I was speaking about my situation - having missed alot of the damage through luck. I'm guessing I'm down about 3% and change in this last week of red. If I'd ridden most of this down, as alot of people have, than I would probably ride it out for the long haul too. My two cents...

 

[coolhand]

Even though a lot of folks remain in stocks, those who are in cash would need to get back fast enough should this market finally bottom and begin to recover. That recovery can happen very quick. That's the risk in getting out of a panic sell-off because one doesn't really know where the bottom is.

I still don't believe this market is going to fall completely apart, but certainly I don't know that for a fact. But my indicators are very bearish now, so if one is out, they should probably stay out until we get some hint that the selling is over. It certainly ain't today. :worried:

I was speaking about my situation - having missed alot of the damage through luck. I'm guessing I'm down about 3% and change in this last week of red. If I'd ridden most of this down, as alot of people have, than I would probably ride it out for the long haul too. My two cents...

 

[WorkFE]

DK. If I had caught it around -3% I may have done the same. Its those that were in 2 weeks ago and are still in. IMHO we missed the boat. Of course if I was staring retirement in the face I might say "I can live with -11%"

 

[coolhand]

Trichet Bond Firepower Faces Test Amid Rout

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...st-as-ecb-purchases-fail-to-stem-turmoil.html

Global Banks Tumble on Concerns About Growth, Sovereign Credit

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...n-concerns-about-growth-sovereign-credit.html

Stock Plunge Erasing $780 Billion ‘Orderly’ as Brokers Keep Bids

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...780-billion-orderly-as-brokers-keep-bids.html

Decade of Stimulus Yields Nothing but Debt: Caroline Baum

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...us-yields-nothing-but-debt-caroline-baum.html

Treasuries Poised for Biggest Weekly Advance Since Fed Rate Cut in 2008

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...eekly-advance-since-fed-rate-cut-in-2008.html

Crude Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Decline Since May Amid Rout on Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...line-since-may-wiping-out-gains-for-year.html

U.S. Housing Market Slump Deals Double Blow to Small Businesses

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=syndmedia_news&sid=aNuiMBllBoJA&refer=syndmedia

The Global Rout

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...20057638188.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion

A big red flag on emerging markets

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-big-red-flag-on-emerging-markets-2011-08-05

Is The Other Shoe Dropping In Europe?

http://www.businessinsider.com/is-the-other-shoe-dropping-in-europe-2011-8

And What Will Soon Be The Scariest Chart: Presenting Record Low Mutual Fund Cash Levels

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-w...presenting-record-low-mutual-fund-cash-levels

Italy prosecutors seize Moody's, S&P documents

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/us-italy-ratingagencies-prosecutors-idUSTRE7734FR20110804

Massive net outflow from money market funds-Lipper

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/investing-fundflows-lipper-idUSN1E7731ZW20110804

 

[coolhand]

Reality hurts...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/07/doorbell.php

 

[coolhand]

Geez, I hope this is priced in already.

S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating to AA-Plus

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44039103

 

[nnuut]

Opps! Those politicians in DC have to stop playing politics and Stop the SPENDING!:nuts:

 

[DakotaKid]

So... you think we're going to plunge again on Monday? I can't imagine a contrarian move on a rating change would be a good idea, but at least the markets have the weekend to digest the news.

 

[Happy_Trails]

So... you think we're going to plunge again on Monday? I can't imagine a contrarian move on a rating change would be a good idea, but at least the markets have the weekend to digest the news.

The downgrade seems to be more about the political process than anything anything to do with the markets, very weird.

 

[coolhand]

I think there is a lot of pressure between this administration (perhaps Congress in general) and the Federal Reserve. A lot of advisors have bailed over the previous months and the Treasury Secretary is threatening to do the same. I've been made aware through channels at work that things are going to be very difficult from a financial perspective over at least the next two years. I don't think that's news to a lot of people, but I'm definitely starting to get that feeling of impending doom. :worried:

 

[Boghie]

Soon the FED will make moves to defend the dollar and fight inflation.

The FED gave 'The Economic Black Swan' administration years to make financial adjustments. Gave us all years to make adjustments.

There will be plunge in our 'F Fund' on Monday. And, I just moved 26% of my holdings into it on Wednesday. My timing has been impeccable this year. Ouch...

 

[burrocrat]

The downgrade seems to be more about the political process than anything anything to do with the markets, very weird.

Hear, hear. Because if it had anything to do with the markets we would have BBB students a long time ago.

Well, here's to poli ticks then, got vote?

And could I please exchange this austerity for a new one please? I don't like the package.