coolhand's Account Talk

[crws]

For all the talk of Blodget being a schmuck, he has a point of view I find uncannily realistic. I found the slideshow sequence particularly interesting.
http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...-suckers-rally-in-history-play-by-play-2009-9

Of course... here's this to add to the cheer.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101302361.html

I don't know who wrote this, but it seems to sum up this era:
http://www.ehow.com/about_5104433_biggest-stock-gains-history.html#

The oppression of negative news has taken it's toll, I'm afraid. I was hoping for a couple day blip to 1100 to at least balance things out, but this is looking mighty dicey.
Could be my mood as it is raining one day after the next out here though.
-need some realistic good employment news.

We are definately due for some upside...when it will occur is the question.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/BADDECADE09.html

 

[Boghie]

What's even more amazing is- if this is a bull market, why the heck is everyone looking to get out? I have a hard time believing that the masses are going to get it right for once by getting out after the flash crash. In 2007 we saw major inflows right around the top.

I'm guessing, but I think da'Boyz will be swing trading a range.

They want out before the tax code and regulation changes take hold. Then, they will wait Carter II out. The market may sit in a 10% - 15% range for years. Why should it boom after the proper market discount for Obamanomics is found?

Can we play the game?

Me, not so good.

Some, yes.

 

[coolhand]

Thanks for the posts guys. Very insightful stuff.

 

[crws]

Here's to hoping the Hungary debacle and the oil cap clears the way for rebound start to finish on Monday. The UK markets will tell the tale...
Cheers.

 

[Boghie]

CH,

What do we do if Monday booms

An odd market, a very odd market. Seems to be motivated by some X factor winging its way our way

 

[Tsunami]

We haven't seen the "golden cross" (50 below 200) yet, but the longer the S&P trades down here, the sooner that could happen.

It's happening in a growing list of countries overseas, no reason at this point to think that the U.S. won't follow....

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/06/a-review-of-global-markets.html

Futures are sliding down in the early going. S&P below 1060 now.

 

[coolhand]

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2...cern-debt-crisis-will-slow-global-growth.html

The euro declined to its weakest level since November 2001 versus the yen and touched a four-year low against the dollar on concern Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will spread, denting global growth.

The yen climbed versus all of its most-traded counterparts and Asian equities extended a global slump after a report at the end of last week showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers than forecast. Europe’s shared currency fell for a third day after Hungarian officials last week compared their country to Greece, claiming the previous administration lied about public finances.

“The latest round of sell-off in the euro was driven by global risk aversion,” said Adam Cole, global head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in London. “Euro-specific negative factors should continue to push it lower from here. Despite the recent decline, the euro is still overvalued.”

 

[coolhand]

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2...p-500-stocks-will-start-within-two-weeks.html

Circuit breakers to slow trading in Standard & Poor’s 500 Index stocks during periods of volatility will be delayed for at least a week, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Regulators asked exchanges to impose coordinated halts following the May 6 rout that erased $862 billion from U.S. equities in less than 20 minutes. Securities executives proposed methods on May 18 to pause trading across markets when a stock in the S&P 500, the benchmark index for U.S. equities, rises or falls 10 percent in five minutes.

The SEC said yesterday that a pilot program for the circuit breakers will begin within two weeks, according to an e-mailed statement. NYSE Euronext said it wouldn’t start its trial of the system on June 7 because it hadn’t received SEC authorization. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., based in New York, is prepared to introduce circuit breakers on the S&P 500 companies it lists on June 14, pending SEC approval, spokesman Robert Madden said.

“The majority of work needed on the circuit breaker needed to be done by the listing exchanges,” said William Karsh, chief operating officer of Direct Edge Holdings LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. His firm is converting two U.S. trading stock venues into exchanges. “We’re prepared to go forward as soon as they are,” he said.

 

[coolhand]

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2...aller-than-forecast-gain-in-u-s-payrolls.html

Crude oil tumbled the most in four months after a government report showed that the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast last month, bolstering concern that the economic recovery will slow.

Oil slipped 4.2 percent after the Labor Department said that payrolls rose by 431,000 in May. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices extended declines as the euro fell to a four-year low against the dollar, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“The oil market didn’t like the employment numbers,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington. “There’s been a change in the perception of how solid the rebound is.”



I wonder whos "perception" we're talking about?

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...8.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth

From small wildcatters to oil-services giants, the petroleum industry is bracing for bad times now that the Obama administration has put a six-month moratorium on deepwater oil exploration in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

BP PLC's failure to plug the mile-deep well that has been leaking oil since April is sending shudders down the spines of industry leaders who previously considered offshore exploration to be one of the last lucrative frontiers in the domestic oil business.

BP and other companies involved in the well, such as drilling contractor Transocean Ltd., have already seen their shares battered by the prolonged spill. Three credit-rating firms have also downgraded the debt of BP, which made progress over the weekend siphoning oil from the leaking well.

Now, the repercussions of the Deepwater Horizon accident are spreading broadly through the industry. Analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said that drilling companies are facing pressure to lower their rates. Companies that operate oil-service fleets are fighting efforts to cancel their contracts.

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...13748386610.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion

People can change the volume, the location and the composition of their income, and they can do so in response to changes in government policies.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that the nine states without an income tax are growing far faster and attracting more people than are the nine states with the highest income tax rates. People and businesses change the location of income based on incentives.

Likewise, who is gobsmacked when they are told that the two wealthiest Americans—Bill Gates and Warren Buffett—hold the bulk of their wealth in the nontaxed form of unrealized capital gains? The composition of wealth also responds to incentives. And it's also simple enough for most people to understand that if the government taxes people who work and pays people not to work, fewer people will work. Incentives matter.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/business/global/06toxic.html?partner=bloomberg&pagewanted=all

IT’S a $2.6 trillion mystery.

That’s the amount that foreign banks and other financial companies have lent to public and private institutions in Greece, Spain and Portugal, three countries so mired in economic troubles that analysts and investors assume that a significant portion of that mountain of debt may never be repaid.

The problem is, alas, that no one — not investors, not regulators, not even bankers themselves — knows exactly which banks are sitting on the biggest stockpiles of rotting loans within that pile. And doubt, as it always does during economic crises, has made Europe’s already vulnerable financial system occasionally appear to seize up. Early last month, in an indication of just how dangerous the situation had become, European banks — which appear to hold more than half of that $2.6 trillion in debt — nearly stopped lending money to one another.

Now, with government resources strained and confidence in European economies eroding, some analysts say the Continent’s banks have to come clean with a transparent and rigorous accounting of their woes. Until then, they say, nobody will be able to wrestle effectively with Europe’s mounting problems.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-other-scary-jobs-chart-the-mass-exodus-from-the-workforce-2010-6

Friday's jobs report was pretty rough, but actually the unemployment rate dipped to 9.7%. That's because, despite the lack of private sector hiring, a large swath of jobseekers decided to, for whatever reason, quit the workforce.

As Annaly Capital Management (via PragCap) notes, the civilian labor force fell by 322,000 May.

The spike up in the total flow from those "unemployed" to "not in the labor force" follow what looked like a couple of months worth of the reverse: people moving on net from not in the labor force to the unemployed, looking segment.

What it looks like is that a lot of frustrated workers were sold on the idea that there was some kind of recovery underway, and then realized they'd been lied to.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/05/1664345/big-increase-in-mortgage-foreclosures.html

AUSTIN -- Real estate experts predicted this week that 3.5 million homes nationally will go into foreclosure this year as risky adjustable-rate mortgages written in 2005 reset and unemployment continues.

That's up from 2.8 million homeowners who faced foreclosure in 2009, and sets a pace that isn't likely to plateau until late 2011, said RealtyTrac Senior Vice President Rick Sharga.

Sharga spoke this week in Austin during the 44th annual National Association of Real Estate Editors conference.

``The second wave of toxic loans is about to hit,'' said Sharga, whose Irvine, Calif.-based company tracks foreclosure filings.

Sharga's panel of speakers, which included a Bank of America representative and Arizona-based mortgage modification executive, painted a bleak picture for anyone who thought the worst of the real estate meltdown is over.

Not only will unemployment and rate resets drive foreclosures, but the panel said more people may decide that strategic defaults are ``hip.'' A strategic default is when homeowners who owe more on their loan than the home is worth stop paying the mortgage, even if they can afford it.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38166.html

Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said on Sunday that BP was succeeding in capturing more oil from its runaway well in the Gulf of Mexico, but cautioned that efforts to cap and clean up what’s already the largest oil spill in American history would stretch into the fall.

“We’re in the middle of a long-term campaign,” Allen, who’s coordinating the federal response, said CBS's “Face the Nation.” “This siege will go on for a long time. We have spread from South Central Louisiana over to Port Saint Joe, Fla. It won't end soon. We need to have our shoulder to the wheel, do everything we can. This is a very, very, very tough problem.”

Even if BP succeeds in capping the well this summer, the cleanup and remediation will take many more months, he said.

“This will be well into the fall,” Allen said. “This is a siege across the entire Gulf.”

 

[coolhand]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6551JJ20100606

Clinton said she fully expected Iran to "pull some stunt" in the coming days to try to divert pressure for sanctions, but predicted this would fail.

"I think we'll see something coming up in the next 24 to 48 hours," Clinton told reporters aboard her plane before departing. "I don't think anybody should be surprised if they try to divert attention once again from the unity within the Security Council ... but we have the votes," she said.

Clinton's trip takes her to Peru for a meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), followed by stops in Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

The Obama administration has battled perceptions in Latin America that early vows of close cooperation have failed to materialize along with pledges to liberalize treatment of Cuba and to review immigration laws.

"The expectations in the region ran way ahead of reality and there is a certain disappointment and cynicism that has set it," said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Council of the Americas.

"Some of these things are devilishly difficult and it is not going to happen overnight," he said. "The secretary is going to try to put this in a broader context."

 

[coolhand]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/75b12d70-70...&_i_referer=http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

Goldman Sachs made a $35m bet in the credit derivatives market against California, the biggest such trade in the past few years by Wall Street banks that underwrite the state's bond sales, according to information that the banks provided to the state.

California, the biggest issuer of US state debt, earlier this year began an inquiry into the trading of credit default swaps by its six major underwriters, who have earned $215m of commissions on its bond sales since 2007.

Bill Lockyer, California's treasurer, wanted to determine if banks selling its bonds were simultaneously booking profits by betting or facilitating bets against the debt. Mr Lockyer also wanted to work out the effect that trading in credit derivatives could have on the perceived risk of default of California and borrowing costs.

This is particularly important when US state and local governments have suffered several years of budget deficits and face long-term concern about pension obligations.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...he-Left-suddenly-its-cool-to-bash-Barack.html

Well, at least he's still got Sir Paul McCartney. At the White House last week, the 67-year-old crooner was gushing in much the same manner as his own groupies did at Shea Stadium in 1965. "I'm a big fan, he's a great guy," McCartney told American critics of President Barack Obama. "So lay off him, he's doing great."

Later, McCartney serenaded the First Lady with a rendition of Michelle and, receiving a prize from the Library of Congress, took a cheap shot at President George W Bush that was as unfunny as it was unoriginal. “After the last eight years, it’s great to have a president who knows what a library is.” Bush. Doesn’t read books. Stupid. Geddit?

The problem for the President is that even if the former Beatle does speak for billions, the overwhelming majority of those are overseas. Polls show that around 10 per cent of those who voted for Obama in 2008 now disapprove of his performance and the heavy turnout of young people and black voters among the 69 million who back him will not be repeated again.

McCartney's banalities were an example of a transatlantic dissonance that is all too apparent these days. Whereas Europe is stuck in November 2008 and still hopelessly in love with Obama, Americans have got over the historic symbolism of it all and are now moving on as they live with the reality.

That reality has now begun to dawn on some of Obama's natural constituency - Hollywood and the Left. The "no drama Obama" demeanour that served him so well on the campaign trail is now becoming a liability.

Bemoaning Obama's passivity after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the director Spike Lee thundered: "He's very calm, cool, collected. But, one time, go off! If there's any one time to go off, this is it, because this is a disaster."

This is the same Spike Lee who once described Obama's election as a "seismic" change that represented "a better day not only for the United States but for the world".

The ladies of The View, the liberal-dominated morning talk show moderated by Whoopi Goldberg, spent a lot of time last week sympathising with Mrs Obama about how difficult it must be to argue with a husband who never shows any fire or emotion.

Even the liberal chattering classes are deserting Obama. Maureen Dowd of the New York Times jeered that his "Yes we can" slogan had been downgraded to "Will we ever?", while fellow colunnist Frank Rich blasted his "recurrent tardiness in defining exactly what he wants done".

Perhaps Obama's toughest critic over the BP oil slick has been James "Rajin' Cajun" Carville, the mastermind of Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign and one of those Democrats who represents the beating heart of the party. He blasted Obama's "political stupidity" and "hands off" attitude, concluding: "It seems the President is madder at his critics than he is at BP."

 

[coolhand]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7144906.ece

DAVID CAMERON has warned that the economy is in a far worse state than previously thought and signalled that Britain faces years of “pain” as the spending axe falls.

The prime minister indicated a sharp downgrade in official growth forecasts and revealed that welfare and public sector pay would bear the brunt of budget cuts.

It is understood that tough measures being considered to help control the £156 billion budget deficit include benefit freezes and cuts in child tax credits. There are also likely to be below-inflation pay rises for state employees on top of next year’s planned freeze.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Cameron said: “Proper statesmanship is taking the right action, explaining to people the purpose behind the pain.”

The prime minister said there would be no “trampoline recovery” of the economy. He warned there was a “serious problem” with forecasts inherited from Labour of robust 3% growth next year.

“There is a huge amount of debt that has got to be dealt with. Crossing our fingers, waiting for growth and hoping it will go away is simply not an answer,” he said.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/06/gaza-blockade-iran-aid-convoy

Iran has warned that it could send Revolutionary Guard naval units to escort humanitarian aid convoys seeking to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza – a move that would certainly be challenged by Israel.

Any such Iranian involvement, raised today by an aide to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would constitute a serious escalation of already high tensions with Israel, which accuses Tehran of seeking to build a nuclear weapon and of backing Hamas, the Islamist movement that controls Gaza.

"Iran's Revolutionary Guard naval forces are prepared to escort the peace and freedom convoys that carry humanitarian assistance for the defenceless and oppressed people of Gaza with all their strength," pledged Hojjatoleslam Ali Shirazi, Khamenei's personal representative to the guards corps.

The threat came as the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, dismissed a UN proposal for an international commission to investigate last week's commando assault on aid ships, in which nine people died. Another aid ship, the Rachel Corrie, carrying Irish and other peace activists, was boarded peacefully by Israeli forces on Saturday, escorted to the port of Ashdod, and its passengers deported.

Netanyahu has defended Israel's right to maintain the blockade by arguing that without it Gaza would become an "Iranian port" and Hamas missiles would strike Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Israel's undeclared aim is to weaken or bring down the Hamas government.

Iran continued to exploit the "freedom flotilla" affair to lambast Israel. Its foreign minister, Manuchehr Mottaki, told the Organisation of the Islamic Conference in Jeddah on Sunday that Israel's crime was "another instance of the Zionist regime's brazen and merciless treatment of Muslims, especially the oppressed Palestinian people."

Mottaki also called for a UN resolution condemning Israel. The security council is discussing imposing new sanctions on Iran because of its failure to meet international demands over its nuclear programme.

Iran and Israel have had no diplomatic relations since the 1979 revolution and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regularly predicts the disappearance of the Jewish state as well as denying the Holocaust.

Shirazi said Iran should encourage international efforts to break the blockade. "We should expose our enemies to spontaneous global action and not let them achieve their heinous goals," he was quoted as saying by the semi-official Mehr news agency.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards, which have a command structure separate from the regular armed forces, are fiercely loyal to the supreme leader. Khamenei has attacked the raid as a "mistake" that "showed how barbaric the Zionists are".

Israel's determination to strike at links between Iran and Hamas was dramatically demonstrated in January when presumed Mossad agents in Dubai assassinated Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, who was described as the Hamas official in charge of smuggling Iranian weapons into Gaza.

Israel's no-compromise attitude to aid convoys could be tested again after two Lebanese organisations pledged to send boats to Gaza in the next few days. Reporters Without Borders is attempting to assemble 25 European activists and 50 journalists for a boat leaving Beirut. The Free Palestine Movement is planning a similar attempt.

George Galloway, the founder of Viva Palestina, announced in London that two simultaneous convoys "one by land via Egypt and the other by sea" would set out in September to break the Gaza blockade. The sea convoy of up to 60 ships will travel around the Mediterranean gathering ships, cargo and volunteers.