coolhand's Account Talk

[crws]

I wouldn't invest in the I fund until the bullish sentiment for the dolar changes to bearish.
http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks

As evidenced with all the market chaos lately, it is my belief that whether we like it or not, we are joined at the hip with the EU, and we both must do well to prosper and grow. If either doesn't, it directly affects the other almost immediately. I think you can look back to the US bailout and glean from that a good idea of how the EU market(s) will fare in the short term, as the EU bond repurchase program(s) progress after Little Timmy's visit last week.
PS- I heard today the offer of paying Honda workers in China 25% was 1/2 what they were asking, a 50% raise, which would have brought them to parity with Honda workers in Japan. Even 1/2 of asking seems like a startling acknowledgement by China about their labor practices.
I think that will push more manufacturing into gear for the EU countries, given the Euro is lower, and at significant advantage for exports.

 

[amoeba]

jdphx/cool:

I'm just curious; since I was there a few weeks ago; for those who are "all in"; what's the logic in riding it down any further; if the SS is not a "buy", then what is it? hold? sell? At what point does the risk of further loss, and stop-loss outweigh the hope that it will reverse the downtrend?

Is it impossible to cut bait if you are below your entry point? And - isn't it possible that alot of buy-holders are going to bail at the first close over 1,100?

I see potential for some gains, but also for more loss

 

[coolhand]

jdphx/cool:

I'm just curious; since I was there a few weeks ago; for those who are "all in"; what's the logic in riding it down any further; if the SS is not a "buy", then what is it? hold? sell? At what point does the risk of further loss, and stop-loss outweigh the hope that it will reverse the downtrend?

Is it impossible to cut bait if you are below your entry point? And - isn't it possible that alot of buy-holders are going to bail at the first close over 1,100?

I see potential for some gains, but also for more loss

We have 2 IFTs. That's the most limiting factor in trying to manage our TSP accounts. The majority of the time following the SS is relatively easy, but occasionally a situation can come up that puts one at odds with the signal.

A signal is not forever. It will reverse at some point. Yes, I missed an opportunity, but that was due to a highly volatile market and being out of IFTs with more than 2 weeks left to the month. That forces a decision, one that requires a closer look at the situation at hand and not strictly the SS.

I have every reason to believe we are in a bottoming process right now. I've already been forced (more or less) to ride this market to the downside in no small measure, so I'm waiting it out. Yes, there's risk. But you can bet when the boys are ready to turn this thing, they'll be sure to catch the first 5% or more off the bottom before most of us can react.

 

[jdphx]

jdphx/cool:

I'm just curious; since I was there a few weeks ago; for those who are "all in"; what's the logic in riding it down any further; if the SS is not a "buy", then what is it? hold? sell? At what point does the risk of further loss, and stop-loss outweigh the hope that it will reverse the downtrend?

Is it impossible to cut bait if you are below your entry point? And - isn't it possible that alot of buy-holders are going to bail at the first close over 1,100?

I see potential for some gains, but also for more loss

Not speaking for CH of course, but for me? Several things actually. #1 being
I am just too damn stubborn to "lock in" these losses.

Does that mean I might be one of the ones who sells if we get back in the mid 1100's? I'll absolutely be thinking that way.

I've got several years to go before retirement. I feel pretty good we will be
WAY back up before then. 1200ish? 1250? 1300 maybe?? All will add a hefty
amount to the wagon from where we are now!!

Can we still go down? Of course... see the last paragraph for the retort.

Does it make me a bit uneasy? Sure it does. I'd much rather be ahead NOW,
and hoping for more, more, more. But that is not the reality of right now.
I need a little more dough in the account prior to punching out.

Otherwise I'd just ride in the "G", or one of the Lifestyle funds.

Is it impossible to cut bait if you are below your entry point?

Nope. But that isn't even close to being near term for me. Others? Everybody
has their own situations. But those reasons are how they relate to mine.

 

[turbo23dog]

Down market means buying opportunity, not a time to lock in a loss.

 

[amoeba]

Down market means buying opportunity, not a time to lock in a loss.

it's only a loss if the share price goes up; if share prices go down, you build dry powder to buy at a lower price; if you are fully invested - there is no way to take advantage of the buying opportunity.

Case in point - I "locked" in a 2.25% "loss" from the 5/12 peak (bailing on 5/14 and 5/17), but those share prices (of CSI funds) were 6.5to 9% higher than today. I could have bought anytime after 5/28. So what did I "lose", other than getting off the downside of a rollercoaster ride?

BTW - I am not even 50:50 on a return to 1,100 this week; could be - could be more - but I don't think so - especially not after the closing trade in the last 2 sessions; looks like big selling into any strength. A huge jobs number - I mean, something like +700K jobs - might make a difference; but a disappointment, or even a mild surprise I'm expecting to be sold off with a vengeance.

 

[Bullitt]

Even though the analysts are projecting growth for the remainder of 2010 to challenge the numbers from the peak in 2006, our leaders are so confident in those estimates that right now they are looking to enact another $1 billion stimulus. Should it pass, it will be the one final blast of rocket fuel that bails out any stuck longs.

 

[crws]

You can always bail to G.
Ha- BlackRock is the F,C,S,I funds admin.

Q2. What are the new limits on interfund transfers? For each calendar month, the first two IFTs can redistribute a participant’s account among any or all of the TSP funds. After that, for the remainder of the month, participants may only move money into the Government Securities Investment (G) Fund (in which case the participant will increase the percentage of the account held in the G Fund by reducing the percentage held in one or more of the other TSP funds).
We will count the interfund transfer based on its process date, not the date the interfund transfer is requested.
If the first or second interfund transfer in a month moves money only to the G Fund, it still counts toward the two (2) unrestricted interfund transfers per month limit.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/harding/2010/0528.html

It’s been one world economically, a global village, for years now.

The competition between major countries is no longer fought on the high seas, or on land with vast armies, but in board rooms and markets. That China is a communist country politically is no longer a concern. The competition is economic, for instance whether China’s semi-capitalistic economy, having already surpassed France and Germany, will soon surpass Japan to become the world’s second largest economy behind the U.S.

The big concern in the U.S. is not which country has the largest navy or nuclear arsenal, but whether China, Japan, and the oil exporting nations, will continue to buy U.S. bonds, and hold U.S. dollars in their central bank reserves, happy to be the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt.
The global village aspect and intertwined economic dependence on each other can be seen in the way global economies enter and exit recessions together, and see their stock markets enter and exit bull and bear markets together.

It should be no surprise then that the economic worries blowing over Europe this year have circled the globe.

 

[coolhand]

Very interesting site if you're involved in options trading.

http://www.optionpain.com/

 

[coolhand]

This is coming from a day-trader, but it pretty well sums up my feelings too.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=120298

 

[coolhand]

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=120384

 

[coolhand]

This chart shows what has happened in the past when TRINQ reaches a reading of 3. There are 3 times between 2001 and 2002 when this happened and a big sell-off occurred each time. :worried:

View attachment 9528

 

[crws]

bump and run.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100606/bs_nm/us_eurogroup_juncker_1
How 's the mood down there?

 

[airlift]

CH,

At Tom's weekly wrap-up, I asked:

'Tom,
You stated in the narrative that "If that 1070 level is broken, we should see that 50-day EMA get closer and closer to the 200-day EMA, and a bear market will begin. But until then, it’s risky, but there is a pretty good set up being created for at least a short-term bounce." The SPX closed at 1064.88 on Friday. Isn't this the technical threshold for the bear market to begin? Tia.'

I am trying to reconcile the TRINQ indicators in the chart you posted above with the most likely course for the market. Based on your experience is the most likely direction to the downside or not? Tia.

 

[coolhand]

CH,

At Tom's weekly wrap-up, I asked:

'Tom,
You stated in the narrative that "If that 1070 level is broken, we should see that 50-day EMA get closer and closer to the 200-day EMA, and a bear market will begin. But until then, it’s risky, but there is a pretty good set up being created for at least a short-term bounce." The SPX closed at 1064.88 on Friday. Isn't this the technical threshold for the bear market to begin? Tia.'

I am trying to reconcile the TRINQ indicators in the chart you posted above with the most likely course for the market. Based on your experience is the most likely direction to the downside or not? Tia.

I'm afraid your guess is as good as mine in this market. I can make a case for either direction. But it's not the direction that bothers me so much as the depth of the move the market may take. Primarily to the downside, if that's where it goes.

 

[tsptalk]

'Tom,
You stated in the narrative that "If that 1070 level is broken, we should see that 50-day EMA get closer and closer to the 200-day EMA, and a bear market will begin. But until then, it’s risky, but there is a pretty good set up being created for at least a short-term bounce." The SPX closed at 1064.88 on Friday. Isn't this the technical threshold for the bear market to begin? Tia.'

We haven't seen the "golden cross" (50 below 200) yet, but the longer the S&P trades down here, the sooner that could happen.

 

[Bullitt]

Buy support, sell resistance.

As gloomy as I am, I am trying to prevent myself from falling into the trap that this time is different. It's amazing when you read history from the 1929 crash and 1987 crash that the headlines and sentiment are identical to today. What's even more amazing is- if this is a bull market, why the heck is everyone looking to get out? I have a hard time believing that the masses are going to get it right for once by getting out after the flash crash. In 2007 we saw major inflows right around the top.

I put up the recliner and watched BT's thread today. Somebody might have to send the National Guard to his thread soon because there are indications of an uprising against the "most hated bull market in the history of mankind".

Just a thought, but I'm still as bearish as I've been since January 15th 2010.

 

[coolhand]

Buy support, sell resistance.

As gloomy as I am, I am trying to prevent myself from falling into the trap that this time is different. It's amazing when you read history from the 1929 crash and 1987 crash that the headlines and sentiment are identical to today. What's even more amazing is- if this is a bull market, why the heck is everyone looking to get out? I have a hard time believing that the masses are going to get it right for once by getting out after the flash crash. In 2007 we saw major inflows right around the top.

I put up the recliner and watched BT's thread today. Somebody might have to send the National Guard to his thread soon because there are indications of an uprising against the "most hated bull market in the history of mankind".

Just a thought, but I'm still as bearish as I've been since January 15th 2010.

I think I do a pretty good job of staying neutral, but it's getting tough. You are correct though, historically speaking we are still set-up for gains. This is just a correction, right? :blink:

 

[Bullitt]

Oh, yeah, absolutely. We're in a bull market! Uh, hold on a minute....

Geithner tells the rest of the world to start spending because the US can't do it alone. Hmmm. Meanwhile, people are on waiting lists in LA to buy an iPad. I don't know where the money is going to come from, yet we haven't even hit the big wave of retirement withdrawals by baby boomers trying to put food on the table!

Retirement will soon become what the job world is. Not everybody will be able to do it and of those that can, most won't be able to move to that dream home in the winter time.