Silverbird
Well-known member
If the politicos could make the market stand on its head, they would already have done it.:toung: They aren't that good. I'm sure they would love to have that kind of power.
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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
It's not so much the politicos, but the fed. Of course, they've already emptied one 6 shooter. Not sure what's left in the other. :cheesy:
Bullitt
Well-known member
They'll just throw the gun at them next. I didn't know that bull markets had gaps down of 3% to open or 4% up days. This market is completely broken. Buy a lotto ticket and pray for a dead cat bounce. I'm so sick of everyone saying buy when there is blood in the street. Uhhh. Okay, there is blood in the street of a bull market?
Shoot. As are you, I'm glad I bought a boatload of PRULX when everybody was afraid of inflation.
Shoot. As are you, I'm glad I bought a boatload of PRULX when everybody was afraid of inflation.
coolhand
Well-known member
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...442772338282.html?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_PF4
Seth Klarman is worth listening to, especially when markets go mad.
Mr. Klarman is president of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston that manages $22 billion. His three private partnerships have returned an annual average of around 19% since inception in 1983—and nearly 17% annually over the past decade, as stocks went nowhere.
To measure Mr. Klarman's importance as an investor, you need only see the value his rivals place upon his words. You could have earned at least a 20% average annual return since 1991—better than twice the performance of the market—merely by buying and holding Mr. Klarman's book, "Margin of Safety": Published that year at a cover price of $25, hard copies now fetch up to $2,400.
But the professorial Mr. Klarman speaks in public about as often as the Himalayan yeti. He made an exception last Tuesday, when I interviewed him in front of a standing-room-only crowd of 1,600 financial analysts at the CFA Institute annual meeting in Boston. He then made another exception, speaking with me over the phone later to clarify points that he feared had been misconstrued.
Mr. Klarman specializes in buying securities that nauseate other investors. As the credit crisis exploded, he put more than a third of his assets into high-yield bonds and mortgage-related securities. I asked him what he had meant, in a recent letter to his clients, when he compared the financial markets to a Hostess Twinkie. "There is no nutritional value," he said. "There is nothing natural in the markets. Everything is being manipulated by the government." He added, "I'm skeptical that the European bailout will work."
Seth Klarman is worth listening to, especially when markets go mad.
Mr. Klarman is president of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston that manages $22 billion. His three private partnerships have returned an annual average of around 19% since inception in 1983—and nearly 17% annually over the past decade, as stocks went nowhere.
To measure Mr. Klarman's importance as an investor, you need only see the value his rivals place upon his words. You could have earned at least a 20% average annual return since 1991—better than twice the performance of the market—merely by buying and holding Mr. Klarman's book, "Margin of Safety": Published that year at a cover price of $25, hard copies now fetch up to $2,400.
But the professorial Mr. Klarman speaks in public about as often as the Himalayan yeti. He made an exception last Tuesday, when I interviewed him in front of a standing-room-only crowd of 1,600 financial analysts at the CFA Institute annual meeting in Boston. He then made another exception, speaking with me over the phone later to clarify points that he feared had been misconstrued.
Mr. Klarman specializes in buying securities that nauseate other investors. As the credit crisis exploded, he put more than a third of his assets into high-yield bonds and mortgage-related securities. I asked him what he had meant, in a recent letter to his clients, when he compared the financial markets to a Hostess Twinkie. "There is no nutritional value," he said. "There is nothing natural in the markets. Everything is being manipulated by the government." He added, "I'm skeptical that the European bailout will work."
coolhand
Well-known member
32 States Now Officially Bankrupt: $37.8 Billion Borrowed From Treasury To Fund Unemployment; CA, MI, NY Worst
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/32...orrowed-treasury-fund-unemployment-ca-mi-ny-w
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/32...orrowed-treasury-fund-unemployment-ca-mi-ny-w
coolhand
Well-known member
U.S Treasury Sec arrives in Europe for crisis talks
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE64P12320100526
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE64P12320100526
coolhand
Well-known member
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10160426.stm
Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has said it and other central banks must be able to make key decisions free from political meddling.
He stressed the importance of the Fed and central banks in other nations keeping their independence over setting interest rates.
Restricting banks' ability to execute monetary policy would lead to economic instability and "boom-bust cycles".
It comes as governments around the world discuss ways to regulate banks.
Politicians generally prefer holding interest rates low, as a means of stimulating the economy and boosting jobs.
Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has said it and other central banks must be able to make key decisions free from political meddling.
He stressed the importance of the Fed and central banks in other nations keeping their independence over setting interest rates.
Restricting banks' ability to execute monetary policy would lead to economic instability and "boom-bust cycles".
It comes as governments around the world discuss ways to regulate banks.
Politicians generally prefer holding interest rates low, as a means of stimulating the economy and boosting jobs.
coolhand
Well-known member
Looks great so far, but are traders willing to hold long over a three day weekend? Is this a selling opportunity?
My take is that volatile action will probably continue, leaving both bulls and bears guessing. Going long in TSP is looking better for those willing to take some risk, even without a SS buy signal, but the key word is "risk".
coolhand
Well-known member
I've noticed that as long as I'm speaking your language, you don't give me any cr@p. :nuts::laugh:
crws
Active member
LOL
PS- I felt like I was missing out on the misery, so as of COB today I am 100% S.
Based mainly on this catalyst, http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/05/25/2328143.aspx
So LET 'ER RIP!
PS- I felt like I was missing out on the misery, so as of COB today I am 100% S.
Based mainly on this catalyst, http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/05/25/2328143.aspx
So LET 'ER RIP!
Last edited:
coolhand
Well-known member
Yeah, they're gonna do something to turn public perception around pretty soon. I'm surprised they waited this long, but it might be because of how fickle and fleeting sentiment is.
coolhand
Well-known member
Good read from stratfor on global economic crisis.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100503_global_crisis_legitimacy
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100503_global_crisis_legitimacy
coolhand
Well-known member
Follow-up to last post from stratfor.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100517_germany_greece_and_exiting_eurozone
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100517_germany_greece_and_exiting_eurozone
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Now that sounds like it send tremors thru the markets.
crws
Active member
Little Timmy's on it!
Tomorrow to Germany. I expect to see some revision of the naked short sale ban if he is successful in his endeavor, because of this...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/26/german-debt-auction-close-failure
more:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/26/markets-rebound-oecd-talks-up-european-prospects
good comments:
i.e.
Competitive devaluation never works for long - Germany is an economic superpower, the only one in Europe, and one of the only four in the world (the USA, China, Japan). If Germany severs its ties with the European Union then it will dominate Europe without having to share economic or political power with its neighbours, a tempting option. Given recent history, I am not sure Germany's neighbours will swallow this policy drift. We already have Sarkozi threatening Merkel (with withdrawal from the Euro), riots in Athens and the German press screaming that the Greeks are lazy (and the Spaniards, Italians, Portuguese and possibly the British and French as well). There can be no recovery if Germany destabilises Europe once again. Who will buy their goods with cheapened Drachmas, lira and passetas; and with goodwill evaporated? Germany should think again - it is far to early for it to desert the Euro. And without Germany there is no recovery.
-and this from Europe's viewpoint:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/25/market-turmoil-what-economists-say
Now for something completely different and reminiscent of the bygone dot.com era:
An online grocer IPO in GB!
Founded by ex- Goldman Sachs bankers with backing by Al Gore and Proctor & Gamble?!
Ocado signs new exclusive 10-year deal to supply Waitrose products
• Ocado agreement provides basis for flotation plans
• Waitrose freed to compete directly with Ocado in London
Ocado's warehouse in Hatfield. Photo: David Levene
Online grocery specialist Ocado is planning a stock market flotation "this side of the summer" after signing a new 10-year supply contract with upmarket grocer Waitrose that will enable it to sell its goods until September 2020.
The Hatfield-based business is keeping its plans for a stock market quote under wraps, but a source close to the company said bankers are already carrying out preparatory work at the group's head office and Ocado's senior management hope to float before the end of July.
Investment banks Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Cazenove and UBS are working with the management, and additional advisers are expected to be named next week. The new supply agreement, which replaces a deal that was due to expire in 2012, provides a solid foundation for Ocado to pursue its float plans, but it also contains provisions that will allow Waitrose to compete toe-to-toe with Ocado in the vitally important London market.
The previous agreement prevented Waitrose from offering its own full grocery delivery service inside the M25 until mid-2012 with the exception of deliveries from five Waitrose stores. Under the terms of the new contract, the John Lewis owned supermarket chain will be able to compete directly with Ocado from next summer.The deal is an exclusive arrangement that rules out Ocado doing a similar deal with competitors such as Marks & Spencer.
Last week analysts at Investec suggested that new M&S boss Marc Bolland should push for a link-up with Ocado to offer an M&S food home delivery service.The online grocer's decision to press ahead with an initial public offer comes despite the volatile conditions on world stock markets and mixed reactions from retail analysts. While some support the sale, which is expected to value Ocado at £1bn, others believe the firm is doomed to failure. It has not made a bottom-line profit since it was set up in 2000 and is estimated to have racked up combined losses of £321m since launch from sales of £1bn. Philip Dorgan, at broker Ambrian, has described the business as "starts with an O, ends with an O, and is worth zero".
The group, which operates from a vast central warehouse, plans to use some of the float proceeds to build another warehouse to service the Midlands and the north. More than 80% of sales are in the London area, but deliveries are already sent as far north as Leeds.
Ocado was founded by three former Goldman Sachs bankers and the John Lewis Partnership was one of its original backers. John Lewis has not maintained its stake in more recent fundraisings and has transferred its holding to its pension fund. Other high-profile backers have joined Ocado's register, including a green investment fund chaired by former US vice-president Al Gore as well as consumer goods group Procter & Gamble. Ocado's annual sales are now running at £500m and have boosted Waitrose's buying power.
How about that disastrous housing market? Check the UK's interest rates.
Homeowners urged to remortgage as equity levels rebound
Homeowners who bought a property between 2006 and 2008 now have sufficient equity in their homes to remortgage on to a cheaper rate, research shows
Homeowners who bought their homes between 2006 and 2008 can potentially switch to cheaper loans because the equity in their properties has substantially increased over the past year.
A combination of low interest rates – enabling homeowners to pay off more of their mortgages – and increasing house prices means that someone who bought their home in April 2006 has increased the amount of equity from 17% last year to 25%, according to analysis by HSBC.
Someone who bought in April 2007 has increased their equity from 6% to 16%, while someone buying in 2008 has increased their equity from 4% to 13%.
The increase means that homeowners can apply for mortgages with a lower loan-to-value (LTV), dramatically cutting the cost of their monthly repayments.
The best rate the 2006 homeowner could have applied for last year was 4.59%, but they could now apply for an ING Direct two-year variable mortgage at 2.59% (75% LTV), resulting in savings of £152 a month.
Likewise, the cheapest mortgage the 2007 buyer could apply for in 2009 cost 7.09%, but this year they could opt for a lifetime tracker from First Direct currently charging 3.99% (LTV 85%), producing a monthly saving of £281.
The 2008 homebuyer can now apply for loans with a 90% LTV ratio (there were none available in 2009). The cheapest currently available is the HSBC lifetime tracker charging 4.49%.
HSBC's head of mortgages, Martijn van der Heijden, said: "This analysis just shows how important the rebound in house prices have been for existing homeowners. Whether they have any intention to sell or not, rebuilding the equity in their homes is an essential element in gaining access to lower rates when they come to remortgage."
"So whether homeowners are concerned that the house price recovery may not continue, or just want to benefit from having access to better rates than even a year ago, now may be a good time to remortgage and capitalise on the improved level of equity they hold."
HSBC based its calculations on 25-year repayment mortgages and house prices collected by the Land Registry.
House prices fell between September 2007 and April 2009, eroding deposits and equity held by homeowners in their properties. But values have risen steadily since last spring, according to the Land Registry, with the average house price rising from £152,761 to £164,288.
And, lastly looks like the UK has taken a sharp turn progressive. This is good news.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/25/queens-speech-bills-coalition
\Cheerio!
Tomorrow to Germany. I expect to see some revision of the naked short sale ban if he is successful in his endeavor, because of this...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/26/german-debt-auction-close-failure
more:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/26/markets-rebound-oecd-talks-up-european-prospects
good comments:
i.e.
Competitive devaluation never works for long - Germany is an economic superpower, the only one in Europe, and one of the only four in the world (the USA, China, Japan). If Germany severs its ties with the European Union then it will dominate Europe without having to share economic or political power with its neighbours, a tempting option. Given recent history, I am not sure Germany's neighbours will swallow this policy drift. We already have Sarkozi threatening Merkel (with withdrawal from the Euro), riots in Athens and the German press screaming that the Greeks are lazy (and the Spaniards, Italians, Portuguese and possibly the British and French as well). There can be no recovery if Germany destabilises Europe once again. Who will buy their goods with cheapened Drachmas, lira and passetas; and with goodwill evaporated? Germany should think again - it is far to early for it to desert the Euro. And without Germany there is no recovery.
-and this from Europe's viewpoint:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/25/market-turmoil-what-economists-say
Now for something completely different and reminiscent of the bygone dot.com era:
An online grocer IPO in GB!
Founded by ex- Goldman Sachs bankers with backing by Al Gore and Proctor & Gamble?!
Ocado signs new exclusive 10-year deal to supply Waitrose products
• Ocado agreement provides basis for flotation plans
• Waitrose freed to compete directly with Ocado in London
- Julia Finch, City editor
- guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 26 May 2010 14.32 BST
- Article history
Online grocery specialist Ocado is planning a stock market flotation "this side of the summer" after signing a new 10-year supply contract with upmarket grocer Waitrose that will enable it to sell its goods until September 2020.
The Hatfield-based business is keeping its plans for a stock market quote under wraps, but a source close to the company said bankers are already carrying out preparatory work at the group's head office and Ocado's senior management hope to float before the end of July.
Investment banks Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Cazenove and UBS are working with the management, and additional advisers are expected to be named next week. The new supply agreement, which replaces a deal that was due to expire in 2012, provides a solid foundation for Ocado to pursue its float plans, but it also contains provisions that will allow Waitrose to compete toe-to-toe with Ocado in the vitally important London market.
The previous agreement prevented Waitrose from offering its own full grocery delivery service inside the M25 until mid-2012 with the exception of deliveries from five Waitrose stores. Under the terms of the new contract, the John Lewis owned supermarket chain will be able to compete directly with Ocado from next summer.The deal is an exclusive arrangement that rules out Ocado doing a similar deal with competitors such as Marks & Spencer.
Last week analysts at Investec suggested that new M&S boss Marc Bolland should push for a link-up with Ocado to offer an M&S food home delivery service.The online grocer's decision to press ahead with an initial public offer comes despite the volatile conditions on world stock markets and mixed reactions from retail analysts. While some support the sale, which is expected to value Ocado at £1bn, others believe the firm is doomed to failure. It has not made a bottom-line profit since it was set up in 2000 and is estimated to have racked up combined losses of £321m since launch from sales of £1bn. Philip Dorgan, at broker Ambrian, has described the business as "starts with an O, ends with an O, and is worth zero".
The group, which operates from a vast central warehouse, plans to use some of the float proceeds to build another warehouse to service the Midlands and the north. More than 80% of sales are in the London area, but deliveries are already sent as far north as Leeds.
Ocado was founded by three former Goldman Sachs bankers and the John Lewis Partnership was one of its original backers. John Lewis has not maintained its stake in more recent fundraisings and has transferred its holding to its pension fund. Other high-profile backers have joined Ocado's register, including a green investment fund chaired by former US vice-president Al Gore as well as consumer goods group Procter & Gamble. Ocado's annual sales are now running at £500m and have boosted Waitrose's buying power.
How about that disastrous housing market? Check the UK's interest rates.
Homeowners urged to remortgage as equity levels rebound
Homeowners who bought a property between 2006 and 2008 now have sufficient equity in their homes to remortgage on to a cheaper rate, research shows
- Jill Insley
- guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 25 May 2010 11.54 BST
- Article history
Homeowners who bought their homes between 2006 and 2008 can potentially switch to cheaper loans because the equity in their properties has substantially increased over the past year.
A combination of low interest rates – enabling homeowners to pay off more of their mortgages – and increasing house prices means that someone who bought their home in April 2006 has increased the amount of equity from 17% last year to 25%, according to analysis by HSBC.
Someone who bought in April 2007 has increased their equity from 6% to 16%, while someone buying in 2008 has increased their equity from 4% to 13%.
The increase means that homeowners can apply for mortgages with a lower loan-to-value (LTV), dramatically cutting the cost of their monthly repayments.
The best rate the 2006 homeowner could have applied for last year was 4.59%, but they could now apply for an ING Direct two-year variable mortgage at 2.59% (75% LTV), resulting in savings of £152 a month.
Likewise, the cheapest mortgage the 2007 buyer could apply for in 2009 cost 7.09%, but this year they could opt for a lifetime tracker from First Direct currently charging 3.99% (LTV 85%), producing a monthly saving of £281.
The 2008 homebuyer can now apply for loans with a 90% LTV ratio (there were none available in 2009). The cheapest currently available is the HSBC lifetime tracker charging 4.49%.
HSBC's head of mortgages, Martijn van der Heijden, said: "This analysis just shows how important the rebound in house prices have been for existing homeowners. Whether they have any intention to sell or not, rebuilding the equity in their homes is an essential element in gaining access to lower rates when they come to remortgage."
"So whether homeowners are concerned that the house price recovery may not continue, or just want to benefit from having access to better rates than even a year ago, now may be a good time to remortgage and capitalise on the improved level of equity they hold."
HSBC based its calculations on 25-year repayment mortgages and house prices collected by the Land Registry.
House prices fell between September 2007 and April 2009, eroding deposits and equity held by homeowners in their properties. But values have risen steadily since last spring, according to the Land Registry, with the average house price rising from £152,761 to £164,288.
And, lastly looks like the UK has taken a sharp turn progressive. This is good news.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/25/queens-speech-bills-coalition
\Cheerio!
crws
Active member
Quarter #5 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/05/26/business-as-japan-economy_7640053.html?feed=rss_asia
Japan is 1/5 of the IFund. I am reallocating contributions 40% to I, 20% to F, 40% to S, to augment my 100% S IFT. I'm at about a 10% contribution plus match at the USPS.
I woke up this morning and swore I could smell recovery in the air! Hopefully it wasn't just the neighbor's garbage fermenting.
Japan is 1/5 of the IFund. I am reallocating contributions 40% to I, 20% to F, 40% to S, to augment my 100% S IFT. I'm at about a 10% contribution plus match at the USPS.
I woke up this morning and swore I could smell recovery in the air! Hopefully it wasn't just the neighbor's garbage fermenting.
Last edited:
Valkyrie
Well-known member
I wouldn't invest in the I fund until the bullish sentiment for the dolar changes to bearish.
http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks
coolhand
Well-known member
Ron Paul: Fed is "panicked" over citizenry awakening to the Fed's real role...
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26569244
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26569244
